Unseasonably warm weather on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region gave way to a much colder weekend following the passage of a strong cold frontal system. The cold air mass in place today across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US is being anchored by a strong, cold high pressure now situated over the southeastern part of Canada. Moisture will advance northeastward later tonight towards the Mid-Atlantic region and our entrenched cold air mass will be reluctant to give up its ground as high pressure slides toward the Canadian Maritimes. As a result, there is the chance for snow or a mix of rain and snow in much of the northern Mid-Atlantic region later tonight into early Monday with significant snow possible across interior, higher elevations of upstate PA, New York and New England.
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Unseasonably warm weather dominates the scene today in much of the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures at mid-day ranging from the 70’s in DC to the 60’s in Philly while stubborn cool air is hanging on in NYC with temperatures in the 50’s. A strong cold front is closing in on the eastern states at this hour and will produce afternoon and evening showers and perhaps a strong-to-severe thunderstorm or two. Following the passage of the strong cold front later tonight, the weekend will become progressively colder as strong high pressure builds into southeastern Canada. By the end of the weekend, moisture will be advancing northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region and our entrenched cold air mass will be reluctant to give up its ground as high pressure slides toward the Canadian Maritimes. As a result, there is the chance for some snow or a mix of rain and snow in at least parts of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Sunday night into early Monday with significant snow possible across interior, higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic and NE US.
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Tomorrow may turn out to be the warmest day so far this season in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures soaring to the 70’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ahead of a strong cold frontal system. In addition, there will be occasional showers; especially, during the afternoon and evening hours and perhaps a strong-to-severe thunderstorm or two mixed in as well. Following the passage of the strong cold front late Friday night, the weekend will become progressively colder as strong high pressure builds into southeastern Canada. By the end of the weekend, moisture will be advancing northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region from the Tennessee Valley and our entrenched cold air mass will be reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, there is the chance for some snow or a mix of rain and snow in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and significant snowfall may fall across upstate New York and New England.
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An active weather pattern continues across the nation and this will lead to more chances of rain for the Mid-Atlantic region and also quite a topsy-turvy temperature pattern. In fact, temperatures could climb well up into the 70’s on Friday in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region ahead of a strong cold frontal system. That cold front will usher in progressively colder air for the weekend and there is actually a chance for some snow early next week in the Mid-Atlantic region as moisture is likely to advance to the northeast and into a cold air mass that will be slow to retreat.
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Explosive intensification is about to take place with an ocean storm now over the western Atlantic. A strong “clipper” system is moving into the Mid-Atlantic region and it is interacting with the upper-level energy that remains from the ocean storm which soaked the southern US earlier in the week. This interaction will result in a drop of central pressure of the ocean storm from around 992 millibars (29.29 inches) at the current time to around 965 millibars (28.50 inches) by the middle of tonight. While this ocean storm is situated well off the east coast, it is still going to influence the Mid-Atlantic region late today and tonight as an inverted trough (aka “norlun” trough) is forming from the center of the low pressure system northwestward to the Mid-Atlantic. As a result, there are rain showers this afternoon throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and even a few embedded thunderstorms. However, as colder air aloft becomes wrapped up into the overall system, a mixing with and changeover to snow is possible later today or early tonight in many spots and there can even be some grassy accumulations; especially, in higher elevation suburban locations.
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A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and it’ll feature some rather cold air in the upper part of the atmosphere. At the same time, the southern storm that continues today to produce significant rainfall in the SE US will intensify after it moves out over the open waters of the western Atlantic. In fact, this storm could intensify to a point where it is produces hurricane-force winds by tomorrow night in the western Atlantic. While this ocean storm will be situated well off the east coast, it’ll still have an influence in the Mid-Atlantic region as an inverted trough (aka “norlun” trough) will extend from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic. The combination of the “clipper” system in the northern stream and the inverted trough associated with the ocean storm is likely to lead to rain and/or snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic later tomorrow and tomorrow night. In some “norlun” trough cases, small-scale heavier precipitation bands can develop and we’ll have to closely monitor that possibility late tomorrow and tomorrow night.
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A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Friday and it’ll feature some quite cold air in the upper part of the atmosphere. At the same time, the southern storm that continues today to produce significant rainfall from Texas to the Carolinas will intensify after it moves into the western Atlantic. While this storm will be situated well off the east coast by later Friday, there can be an inverted trough of low pressure (aka “norlun” trough) extending from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic region which can also contribute to some instability in the atmosphere. The combination of the “clipper” system and the inverted trough is likely to lead to rain and/or snow showers on Friday and Friday night and we’ll have to closely monitor the situation to see if any heavier bands of precipitation develop; especially, across places like eastern PA and NJ.
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An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms has developed across eastern Ohio and West Virginia associated with a cold frontal system and they’ll advance to the east over the next few hours. By later this evening, brief downpours will be possible in the I-95 corridor region and there can be an embedded strong thunderstorm or two as well. High pressure will take over for much of Wednesday and Thursday, but then a strong “clipper” system will create instability in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Friday and Friday night with the threat of rain and/or snow showers.
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A strong wave of energy is sitting off the coast of southern California at mid-day Monday and it’ll push eastward across northern Mexico and then into Texas by mid-week. This upper-level system will help to spawn the development of a strong surface low pressure system in Texas by early Wednesday and this storm will spread significant rainfall to the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas in the Wednesday/Thursday time period. By late Thursday, the southern low will push towards the Carolina coastline at the same time a northern stream wave of energy drops southeastward across the Great Lakes. This two upper-level features will likely phase together at the end of the week, but it’s a little too early to tell the exact timing and placement of the phase which will have an impact as to how far north and west the southern storm’s precipitation shield can extend. Temperatures are likely to be borderline in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US at the end of the week with respect to rain versus snow; however, colder air will be sitting just to the northwest and it certainly can feed in making this an unfolding scenario to closely monitor in coming days.
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The weekend will turn out to be quite cold for this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but a warming trend will begin on Sunday across the Mississippi Valley. At the same time, a strong wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will crash into California and this will become one key player in the eastern half of the nation by the middle of next week. The combination of warmer and increasingly humid air and strong energy aloft may very well result in a major rain event next week from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the eastern US.
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