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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

10:30 AM (Wednesday) | ****Major rain event in the eastern US from tomorrow into early Friday with flash flooding concerns****

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into the month of May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country is very active as we wind down the month of April and it has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one has dropped southeastward into the Mississippi Valley region from southwestern Canada. This wave of energy aloft and its corresponding surface low pressure system will move very slowly over the next 48 hours due to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere over the southern part of Canada. These slow-moving systems and a painfully slow-moving surface frontal boundary zone will combine with an influx of tropical moisture to produce a major rain event from tomorrow into early Friday in the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. Localized flash flooding is likely to become a serious concern during this upcoming event with 2-4 inches of rain on the table in many areas.

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12:30 PM | ***Major rain event likely on Thursday/Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic region***

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country as we close out the month of April is very active and has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one is on the way. This next powerful wave of energy aloft will dive southeast from southwestern Canada into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow afternoon and then slide into the Mid-Atlantic region by late Thursday. The combination of this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, a painfully slow-moving surface frontal system, and a strong flow of very humid air up along the east coast will likely result in a major rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night.  Given the well saturated grounds from recent rainfall, this type of potential significant rain event could very well lead to localized flash flooding conditions and will have to be closely monitored.

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11:30 AM (Thursday) | *Active weather pattern persists as cold air outbreaks continue into the central and eastern US...pattern to hold into early May…includes additional severe weather outbreaks*

Paul Dorian

A very active weather pattern will likely continue across the eastern half of the nation into the early part of May in large part due to a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. These on-going cold air outbreaks are combining with increasingly warm and humid conditions across the southern US to help in the generation of storms and also has increased the chances for severe weather outbreaks; especially, across the southern states. In fact, tornadoes this year are running at above-normal levels and are the highest for the month of April since 2011. The next storm in a series of storms will impact the Mid-Atlantic region from today into late Friday and then another system arrives over the upcoming weekend and colder-than-normal conditions will persist through the period.

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10:30 AM (Tues) | ***Strong thunderstorms possible mid-day/afternoon with gusty winds and hail the primary threats…very cold once again by late tonight with at or below freezing overnight lows***

Paul Dorian

A very active weather pattern continues for much of the nation aided by a continuing influx of cold air masses from Canada into the central and eastern US. A strong cold front at the leading edge of the next cold air outbreak will arrive this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and there can be strong thunderstorm activity with very gusty winds and hail the primary threats. Much colder air will push into the region in the overnight hours riding in on stiff NW winds and temperatures in many suburban locations by early tomorrow will once again be at or slightly below the freezing mark. Multiple chances of rain will follow in coming days and there will be additional cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US - perhaps into the early part of May.

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11:15 AM (Monday) | ****Potential for damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph during the mid-day and afternoon…continuing threat of severe thunderstorms with possible hail and even isolated tornadoes****

Paul Dorian

The late night and morning hours featured some steady and heavy rainfall rain in the I-95 corridor and it has resulted in localized flash flooding conditions along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The overall precipitation pattern will become more variable for the next several hours with multiple bands and the continued threat for downpours, but also the chance for a “break in the action” at times. As a strong cold front presses to the east across the eastern Ohio Valley, thunderstorms are breaking out to our west. Some of these storms can reach severe levels by the time they reach the I-95 corridor with hail a possibility to go along with heavy rainfall and damaging winds and there is even the chance for isolated tornadoes.

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10:20 AM (Sunday) | ***Major storm to impact much of the nation from today through Monday with accumulating snow, heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and severe weather…cold blast to follow***

Paul Dorian

A major storm will impact a large part of the nation from today into Monday with a wide-ranging set of conditions from accumulating snows in its cold sector to heavy rain and severe weather in areas to the east and south of the storm track. Low pressure will consolidate over the central Plains today and then intensify significantly as it pushes northeastward through the Great Lakes region early Monday and then to the Hudson Bay, Canada region by Monday night. Accumulating snows are likely from this storm from the Rockies to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan where a foot or more can fall. The threat for severe weather will be widespread from today into tonight in the region extending from Texas/Louisiana to the Carolinas and as far north as the Ohio Valley as ingredients come together to destabilize the atmosphere. A significant rain and extreme wind event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with heavy rain, damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph, and perhaps severe thunderstorm activity with hail and isolated tornadoes. All of this will be followed by a cold blast of air for mid-April that will arrive in the eastern US on Tuesday and a weaker low pressure system could produce more precipitation from Tuesday night into Wednesday - and it could even be cold enough for wet snow in some areas.

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10:30 AM (Saturday) | ***Major storm to impact much of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, heavy rain, damaging winds and severe thunderstorms...cold blast to follow***

Paul Dorian

A major storm will impact a large part of the nation from tomorrow into Monday with a wide-ranging set of conditions from accumulating snows in its cold sector to heavy rain and severe weather in areas to the east and south of the storm track. Low pressure will consolidate over the Mississippi Valley on Sunday morning and then intensify significantly as it pushes northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Monday morning. Accumulating snows are likely from this storm from the Rockies to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan where a foot or more can fall. The threat for severe weather will be widespread from Sunday into Sunday night in the region extending from Texas/Louisiana to the Carolinas as ingredients come together to destabilize the atmosphere. A significant rain and extreme wind event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday night into Monday and it can include damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph and perhaps severe thunderstorm activity. All of this will be followed by a cold blast of air for mid-April that will arrive in the eastern US on Tuesday and another low pressure system could even produce some in parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

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10:45 AM | *Wind gusts to 50 mph in Mid-Atlantic region…near freezing in many spots early Saturday.…soaking rain event Sunday night/Monday…widespread severe weather outbreak likely later this weekend*

Paul Dorian

A very active weather pattern continues across the nation today and will so for at least the next week or so. A powerful cold front is closing in on the east coast and it will be accompanied by showers and perhaps a few severe thunderstorms. In addition, the winds will become a major factor later today as they’ll gust to 50 mph in the DC-to-Philly-to NYC corridor following the frontal passage. Winds will stay strong tonight and Friday as a much colder-than-normal air mass pours into the Mid-Atlantic region. After a quieter day on Saturday, a major storm will take shape over the middle of the nation. This system will head towards the Great Lakes while a secondary low forms in the eastern US. The impact of this late weekend storm will be wide-ranging from accumulating snow in parts of the Upper Midwest to heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday night and Monday to a potential widespread severe weather outbreak on Easter Sunday in the southern US extending from Texas/Louisiana to the Carolinas. Another cold air outbreak arrives in the eastern US next Tuesday and a rather sustained period of colder-than-normal weather can be expected through the remainder of April.

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11:30 AM (Wednesday) | *Very active weather pattern to persist as cold air outbreaks continue through the month of April*

Paul Dorian

A very active weather pattern will continue across much of the nation during the next week or two in part due to a continuation of cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern US. These on-going cold air outbreaks from Canada will combine with increasingly warm and humid conditions across the southern US to make it quite unstable on many days going forward in many parts of the nation and it’ll increase chances for widespread severe weather outbreaks.

Currently, a strong storm is swirling over southern California with heavy rainfall and by mid-day Thursday, a strong cold front will advance across the Great Lakes and to the eastern seaboard. Winds will increase markedly in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from later tomorrow into Friday with damaging gusts possible. A major storm system is then likely to form this weekend over the central US and it should take a northeast turn towards the Great Lakes region while a secondary system forms near the east coast. The result of this Sunday/Monday storm system could be some heavy rainfall in the eastern US, accumulating snow across the Upper Midwest, and perhaps a widespread severe weather outbreak in the southern US extending from Texas/Louisiana to the Carolinas.

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1:00 PM (Tues) | *Very active weather pattern setting up as cold air outbreaks continue through April…begins later today/tonight in the Mid-Atlantic with potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

A very active weather pattern is setting up for the next week or two partly as a result of continuing cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern US. These cold air outbreaks will combine with increasing warmth and moisture across the southern US to make it quite unstable on many days going forward in many parts of the nation. In the short-term, a warm front will generate showers and thunderstorms in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later today into Wednesday and some of the storms that form can be on the strong-to-severe side. A strong cold front will then drop southeastward across the area later Thursday and it will be accompanied by showers, perhaps a strong thunderstorm, and increasing winds which will remain quite powerful on Thursday night and Friday. Another storm system could impact the Mid-Atlantic region late in the weekend or by the early part of next and then another system could follow a few days later in this unfolding very active weather pattern.

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