Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes later tonight in some of the northern and western suburbs along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as moisture pushes into a relatively cold and dry air mass (dew points in the teens). In fact, there can be a coating to an inch or so in some of the nearby northern and western suburbs of Philly and NYC and also in some of the far northern and western suburbs of DC.
Rain will be the dominate precipitation type on Saturday morning in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before it winds down at mid-day and there will be significant rainfall on Sunday and Sunday night. An Arctic front will then blast through the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and the winds will kick up noticeably later in the day and continue quite strong on Monday night. In addition, the plunge in temperatures will be quite dramatic in this short, but intense Arctic cold air outbreak and there can even be a few snow squalls in the Northeast US upon its arrival.
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The latest winter storm continues to pound away at the Mid-Atlantic with lots of snow north of the Pennsylvania/Maryland border and lots of icing to the south of there. There have been intense snow bands in the region from southeastern Pennsylvania to central New Jersey during the past few hours resulting in a quick piling up of snow to as much as 8 inches in some spots. The precipitation will tend to slacken off this afternoon, but this latest winter storm will turn into another relatively long duration event with redevelopment of the precipitation by tonight and there can be some impacts into the latter part of the day on Friday.
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A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night and it is likely to develop into a rather long duration event and last well into the day on Friday. Snow should break out early tomorrow morning in the DC and Philly metro areas and by the late morning hours in New York City. The snow can come down hard for a few hours beginning shortly after its arrival time in the I-95 corridor. The precipitation may slacken off for a brief time later tomorrow into early tomorrow night, but more precipitation will re-develop tomorrow night likely as a wintry mix and this can change back to all snow on Friday.
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With the passage of one storm system in the overnight hours, attention to those in the Mid-Atlantic region will now turn to the next storm system and this one is likely to generate significant snow and/or ice for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with several inches on the table. The next storm will take a track farther to the east compared to last night’s system and this will help to keep in place a cold air mass that arrives in the overnight hours. This cold air mass will be anchored by strong high pressure to the north and low-level temperatures are likely to remain at or below freezing during much of the upcoming event in the immediate I-95 corridor – virtually assuring a buildup of snow and/or ice.
Elsewhere, historic and dangerous cold continues today across much of the central US. Several sites have set their all-time low temperature records and many others have experienced their lowest temperatures ever recorded in the month of February. In addition to the extreme cold, snow and ice has accumulated all the way down to the Gulf coastal region of Texas. In fact, nearly three-quarters of the US is now covered by snow which is the highest amount ever recorded since this kind of data began to be collected in 2003.
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Historic cold has gripped much of the central/southern US today with many locations experiencing their all-time lowest temperatures and many other sites breaking their monthly (February) low temperature records. In addition, snow and ice has fallen in unusual places today all the way down to the Gulf coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana. The storm responsible for the snow and ice in the Deep South will now head towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and bring a swath of accumulating snow and significant ice along its path.
As this storm heads well to the north and west of the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor, enough warmer air should move in to generate primarily a plain rain event later today and tonight for the metro regions with icing confined to the far northern and western suburbs. A second storm later in the week will have more cold air ahead of it than this initial system and this could result in a period of accumulating snow at the onset late Wednesday night/early Thursday before a likely changeover to a wintry mix.
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Arctic air has gripped much of the northern and central US in recent days and it is plunging later this weekend to Texas and Oklahoma where the cold may be historic with all-time low temperature records likely being challenged in some spots. The longevity of this on-going cold wave across the northern and central US has been rather amazing with many areas experiencing bitter cold conditions for numerous days. In addition to the widespread and extreme cold, significant snow has accumulated in some regions including the Pacific Northwest (e.g., Seattle, Portland) and it is now moving into the Rocky Mountain States. Later in the weekend, this snow will spread into the far southern states of New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas and ice will become a problem all the way down to the Gulf coast of Texas. Ice has already become a major headache today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC metro region where several accidents have been reported and a significant ice buildup is underway. Unfortunately, a change in the upper part of the atmosphere will likely result in additional icing events in coming days across much of the nation.
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The overall weather pattern remains quite active as we end the work week and it will remain so right through next week. The pattern is also evolving into one that increases the chances of icing (sleet, freezing rain) in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, significant icing is possible this weekend as the next system brings some moisture into the area with low-level cold remaining air in place. In addition, there will likely be two significant storm systems to deal with next week and there is the potential for some icing during both events in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Elsewhere, an Arctic plunge later this weekend will result in historic cold for the southern Plains with many low temperature records to be broken across Texas and Oklahoma and they’ll have to contend with snow and ice as well. In fact, there are some spots in the southern Plains that will approach or even break their all-time low temperature records during this blast of Arctic air. The longevity of this on-going cold wave across the northern and central US has been quite amazing.
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A very active weather pattern continues for much of the nation as we close in on the end of the week and it will continue right through next week. One fast-moving system produced some accumulating snow last night in the Mid-Atlantic region and another one will do the same tonight although a bit farther to the south. Another system will likely bring some icing to the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into early Sunday as temperatures stay below freezing in most areas. In fact, the overall weather pattern is evolving into one that favors ice events across a good part of the nation. The weekend system does not look all that strong, but it doesn’t take much in the way of ice to cause some problems. Looking ahead, there is growing potential for a major winter storm early next week that can have a significant impact from the Rockies to the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and then finally to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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The next ten days will bring the worst that winter has to offer too much of the nation which will include accumulating snow, significant icing and persistent cold that will be extreme in some areas. The energetic pattern of recent days will continue with storm-after-storm impacting the nation from coast-to-coast in this next ten day time period. Perhaps the best example of the most extreme winter weather that is on the way will take place deep in the heart of Texas where temperatures could drop to near zero by early next week and snow and ice can accumulate all the way down into the southeastern part of the state.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, one system will bring accumulating snow to areas near and to the north of the PA/MD border from tonight into early Thursday and it’ll produce a mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain in the DC metro region. A second and relatively weak system will have little or no impact on areas to the north of the PA/MD border on Thursday night and early Friday, but it can produce a small amount of snow in the DC metro region. A stronger system set to arrive this weekend will have more moisture to deal with than these first two and it could result in more significant ice and/or snow in the Mid-Atlantic region. And yes, there may be two other storms to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region next week with significant snow and/or ice on the table for either or both of these systems.
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The second half of the week will feature two waves of precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region with one wave coming from Wednesday night into early Thursday and the second from later Thursday into mid-day Friday. It appears that the heaviest snows associated with both of these systems will be suppressed to areas south of the PA/MD border across Virginia, Maryland, southern Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. The DC metro region will likely be right in or very close to the zone with the heaviest snow and there should be less impact to the northeast in places like Philadelphia and New York City. Another winter storm system may impact the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend and its passage early next week could be the catalyst for an intrusion of bitter cold air into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. And yes, there may be another winter storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, the potential threats coming this weekend and by the middle part of next week present the possibility of significant icing issues in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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