“Elsa” is a strong tropical storm this morning and has reached Florida’s northern Gulf coast. The tropical storm actually reached hurricane status late yesterday, but has since dropped just below that level with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph as it heads northward at 14 mph. Tropical Storm Elsa will cross the northern part of Florida later today and then take a turn more to the northeast by early Thursday as it moves over the southeastern states. Tropical Storm Elsa will then likely reach the Delmarva Peninsula region of the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday and bring with it an enhanced chance of heavy rainfall to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Thursday into early Friday. By later Friday, the remains of Elsa will likely reach the eastern part of New England and then ultimately to near Nova Scotia Canada by early Saturday.
Read More
It’s never easy to break the back of a heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region and this one will be no different with the formation of strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the transition and there will be torrential rainfall included in the mix. The threat for storms and heavy rainfall will continue into Friday as a slow-moving cold front works its way through the region. It’ll turn noticeably cooler on Friday and Saturday and the weather will stay unsettled as we begin the holiday weekend, but improvement will set in for Sunday and Monday.
Elsewhere, an impressive tropical wave that exited off of the west coast of Africa last week has strengthened into Tropical Storm “Elsa” and it will enter the Caribbean Sea later tomorrow. This system is likely to become an important player for the Caribbean islands of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic), Jamaica and Cuba later in the weekend and could threaten southern Florida early next week.
Read More
There was intense heat across the Pacific Northwest earlier in the week and also quite a hot spell in the Mid-Atlantic region with strong upper-level ridging the main culprit in both parts of the nation. The heat in the Mid-Atlantic will transition to much cooler conditions by the time we get to the end of the work week and early part of the holiday weekend. This change will come about with numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall with localized flooding a real threat. The weekend will start off quite a bit cooler-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic and also very unsettled with deep upper-level low pressure moving directly overhead, but improvement and warming will come later in the weekend.
Elsewhere, an impressive tropical wave exited off of the west coast of Africa last week and it is now churning over the central Atlantic. We certainly could be dealing with a “tropical storm” nearing the Caribbean Sea by the end of the week and this system will have to be closely monitored heading into the first full week of July.
Read More
The weather for Memorial Day weekend was quite cool in the Mid-Atlantic region with some rainfall as well and the best weather day turned out to be the Monday holiday. Unfortunately, there are some similarities between that holiday weekend and what could happen this 4th of July weekend. The high heat and humidity of today and Wednesday will transition to cooler conditions for the end of the week and for the upcoming holiday weekend and the conversion is likely to include some heavy rainfall and possible strong storms. In addition to the cooler-than-normal weather this weekend, it’ll remain unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region and as with the Memorial Day weekend, the best weather day may turn out to be the Monday holiday.
Read More
One big weather story in the near-term that will likely become a big news story is the heat that will intensify across the Pacific Northwest later this weekend and early next week. As high pressure expands and intensifies over the Pacific Northwest later this weekend, many places including Seattle, Washington will approach or surpass the 100 degree mark for afternoon highs. In fact, Portland, Oregon could actually surpass their all-time high temperature record of 107°F on Sunday afternoon. In the longer-term, another weather story may develop across the tropics. A strong tropical wave has just exited off the west coast of Africa and signs point to a favorable pattern for intensification down the road potentially leading to problems for the Gulf of Mexico/Southeast US by the time we get to the early part of July.
Read More
Another very comfortable air mass is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region and it will result in some very nice weather for the mid-week time period; however, we may have to deal with some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity before we get there. A strong upper-level trough of low pressure is digging southeastward today across the Great Lakes and it is combining with a couple of surface-level cold fronts to produce strong thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley and western Mid-Atlantic. This thunderstorm activity is likely to reach the I-95 corridor by later today or early tonight and some of the storms can reach severe levels with potentially damaging wind gusts and hail. It won’t be as warm on Tuesday as the cold front works its way through the region and there will be a lingering chance of showers and storms. Much more comfortable air will be quite noticeable by tomorrow night with temperatures dropping way down in the 50’s in the overnight and it’ll remain very pleasant on Wednesday and Thursday.
Read More
An active weather pattern will grip much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation over the next several days that will include a tropical storm, a severe weather threat from the Upper Midwest-to-Ohio Valley-to-Northeast US and then a blast of unseasonably cool air for much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation. The tropical wave is now pushing over the southern Gulf of Mexico and is likely to maintain a northerly track and reach the northern Gulf coastal region of Louisiana by later Friday night. After landfall, this tropical system will then move to the northeast and there is a chance that it actually strengthens some over land which is somewhat contrary to normal trends with tropical cyclones. In addition to the tropical activity, a severe weather threat will begin later Thursday across the Upper Midwest and will shift east tomorrow to the Ohio Valley and then perhaps into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Friday night and Saturday. All of this active weather will be swept eastward on Tuesday with the passage of a powerful cold front that will usher in another much cooler-than-normal air mass for the northeastern quadrant of the nation.
Read More
There have been a couple of named tropical systems so far in the Atlantic Basin, but neither one was of much consequence and had little to no impact on the US mainland. A third tropical wave now drifting over Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico is likely to intensify into at least tropical storm status in coming days as it turns to the north, if so, it would become named “Claudette”. The track of this system is likely to bring it to the central Gulf coastal region during the early part of the upcoming weekend and then its remains are likely to push northeastward into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday and then the Carolinas/Virginia on Monday. There is even a chance that the remains of the tropical system strengthen after moving over land - contrary to normal trends for tropical systems - and it could get intertwined with an approaching cold frontal system to produce rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region early next week.
Read More
Strong high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere will build into the western US early next week at the same time a vigorous upper-level low drops southeastward from Canada into the Northeast US. As a result, some extreme heat - and potentially record-breaking heat - is likely to develop in the western US for the early and middle parts of next week at the same time refreshing cooler-than-normal air drops into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Elsewhere, there are strong signs for some tropical activity later next week or weekend over the Gulf of Mexico which could be the first significant system of the 2021 Atlantic Basin season.
Read More
The combination of a moist air mass, surface frontal systems, and a slow-moving upper-level trough is bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be downpours later in the day and again tonight which could result in some localized flash flooding. In addition, there is the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity ahead of an advancing cold frontal system. The upper-level trough will still be to the west of the I-95 corridor on Friday leading to an unsettled day and the possibility of additional showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds across the eastern states this weekend and a classic summertime “Bermuda high” setup is likely to result in hot, increasingly humid and summer-like weather for the period from Sunday-to-Wednesday with daily high temperatures at or above the 90 degree mark in the I-95 corridor.
Read More
