One of the highlights of the Winter Outlook issued last month was the signal that there could be a quick start to winter in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the latter part of November and in of December. We have now reached the mid-point of November and there are some near-term signals that support the idea of a quick start to winter in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. After a couple of chilly days to start this week, it’ll turn noticeably milder on Wednesday and Thursday, but then a strong cold front will usher in another colder-than-normal air mass for the end of the week and first half of the weekend. Looking ahead, there is the potential for Thanksgiving week to become cold and stormy perhaps leading to that quick start to the winter season in this part of the nation.
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The first week of November averaged out to be quite a bit colder-than-normal in much of the eastern half of the nation, but the last couple of days have been quite pleasant for this time of the year and warmer-than-normal. It’ll remain warmer-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region into the day on Friday, but the passage of a strong cold front as the work week ends will usher in colder air for the upcoming weekend and it’ll set off an overall pattern change to colder-than-normal for much of the second half of the month. In fact, a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive early next week and it could actually be accompanied by the first snow of the season in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during Sunday night and Monday.
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Last night brought the first frost of the season to many suburban locations of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the next few nights will likely feature low temperatures at or below the freezing mark. By the second half of the weekend, a strong storm will likely be situated off the east coast and it’ll have to be monitored to determine potential impact on the eastern Mid-Atlantic, if any, come Sunday or so. Looking ahead, it looks like a warmer-than-normal stretch of weather will return to much of the eastern half of the nation next week only to be followed by colder weather returning around mid-month.
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Today’s storm in the Mid-Atlantic region is living up to its potential with strong, persistent E-SE winds, some serious coastal flooding, and occasional heavy rainfall that will produce 1-3 inches and isolated higher amounts. The added twist this afternoon and evening will be the likelihood for some strong thunderstorms which should rotate from the southwest-to-northeast and could include damaging wind gusts along with downpours.
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An active weather pattern continues today with a powerful nor’easter finally starting to pull away from the New England coastline and a vigorous upper-level low over Texas that has resulted in an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Deep South. This same upper-level low will push to the east over the next 24 hours and contribute to a windy and rainy end to the week in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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A powerful storm system has pounded the west coast during the past 24 hours or so and a strong Nor’easter is about to unfold just off the east coast. This developing Nor’easter will impact much of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later tonight into Wednesday morning with flash flooding type rains in some areas and potentially damaging wind gusts; especially, along coastal sections. The development of the east coast storm will wait for the arrival of a surface cold frontal system which will push eastward this afternoon from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This frontal system can result in some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity along the I-95 corridor from later today into early tonight following a day of near record warmth.
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One strong storm system has impacted the west coast states from Washington-to-California in the past 24 hours or so with significant rainfall, but an even stronger storm is likely have an impact from Sunday into Monday. In fact, this next storm could become the strongest system in many years to impact the region from British Columbia (Canada) to California. Rainfall will be excessive with this next storm, winds will be powerful and potentially damaging, and snow will pile up in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California. The upper-level support for this system is likely to then cross the country next week and that could result in a mid-week severe weather outbreak and a late week storm near the eastern seaboard.
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Much of California and the rest of the western US has been experiencing “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions in recent weeks, but that could change in a big way in coming days. A very powerful storm will slam into the US west coast from Sunday into Monday and it could generate a foot or more of rain in the northern part of California and heavy snowfall across interior higher elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. In addition, winds associated with this monster storm are likely to be excessive and potentially damaging in many spots along the west coast and even inland. This same system is likely to cross the country later next week and it could wind up as a significant east coast storm by week’s end.
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The winter season of 2020-2021 featured La Nina conditions in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean which then weakened to near neutral status during the spring and summer of this year. New cooling has formed in the same region and it appears that a second year La Nina will take place for the upcoming winter season. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean were but one of several factors considered in the 2021-2022 “Winter Outlook”.
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It has been a drab and dreary weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic region during the past several days with plenty of low-level moisture and rather stubborn cloudiness. Thick clouds rule the skies today and will likely do so again for much of Wednesday; however, there is reason to believe sunshine will return later in the week and this will be accompanied by a warming trend. In fact, temperatures by Friday afternoon should climb into the 80’s across much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. A strong cold front arrives this weekend bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms and it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Sunday and Monday.
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