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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

12:30 PM | ***Very cold stretch right through Tuesday night following passage of secondary Arctic front…"Great Lakes snow machine" turned on…stormy pattern evolving***

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night and a secondary cold front will come through on Monday evening. This secondary cold front will usher in true Arctic air for the region with its origins way up in the high latitudes and the stretch of weather from Monday night through Tuesday night will feature some of the coldest conditions we’ve experienced in quite awhile and some “face-slapping” wind chills. The “Great Lakes snow machine” has been activated with the Arctic air mass flowing over the relatively warm waters and will continue into Tuesday for downstream locations. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern is likely to evolve into one that can produce storms in the eastern US during at least a 10-day stretch beginning this weekend.

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12:45 PM | ***Next threat of wintry precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic comes early Sunday in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet - just ahead of an impressive Arctic blast for early next week***

Paul Dorian

Accumulating snow ended this morning across the Mid-Atlantic region and, in its wake, there are quite windy and cold conditions with partial sunshine. The next threat of wintry precipitation looks like it will come early in the day on Sunday, January 9th and this time, it will likely be in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet. The opportunity for icing will come on Sunday morning as milder air tries to advance northeastward into what will be a cold and dense air mass. It doesn’t take much in the way of icing to have an important impact on travel conditions. Whatever precipitation does fall on Sunday, it will certainly be followed by an Arctic outbreak for the early part of next week that will feature some very impressive cold for the northeastern quadrant of the nation.

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11:30 AM | ***Accumulating snow from later tonight into Friday in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US…watch out for mesoscale heavier snow bands…next cold blast arrives early next week***

Paul Dorian

An upper-level disturbance is helping to generate surface low pressure in the southeastern states at mid-day and this system will intensify over the next 24 hours as it moves rather quickly to the northeast - likely reaching the waters off of eastern Maine by mid-day on Friday. Accumulating snow will spread across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later tonight and it’ll wind down on Friday morning from southwest-to-northeast. There are likely to be small-scale heavier snow bands that develop later tonight/early Friday associated with mid-level “frontogenetic forcing” and these will produce localized higher accumulation amounts. It’ll be quite cold during and after the storm and another very impressive cold air blast will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early next week.

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11:20 AM | ***Accumulating snow tomorrow night into early Friday…cold blasts to continue into next week***

Paul Dorian

Today will turn a little bit milder in the Mid-Atlantic region as low-level winds increase in intensity from a southwesterly direction ahead of the next cold frontal system. That cold front will shift to our east later tonight and its passage will usher in another cold air mass for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, an upper-level disturbance will help to spawn the formation of low pressure in the southeastern states and this system will intensify as it moves fairly quickly to the northeast reaching the waters off of Maine by mid-day Friday. Some accumulating snow will spread across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Thursday night and it’ll likely come to a quick end early Friday resulting in a moderate snowfall for the region. Temperatures are likely to drop to the teens on Friday night all along the I-95 corridor in the wake of the low pressure system and another cold air blast will arrive early next week into the Mid-Atlantic region.

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10:55 AM | ***Next snow threat for the Mid-Atlantic comes on Thursday night/early Friday…impressive cold blasts on the horizon...one to accompany the late week system and another early next week***

Paul Dorian

The month of January got off to a very mild start in the Mid-Atlantic region this past weekend, but a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday night changed that around quite dramatically by Monday. In addition to the influx of the cold air mass, significant snow fell across parts of the region from the DC metro area to the Delmarva Peninsula to the Jersey Shore, but there was a sharp cutoff on the northern fringes with little or no snow at all in the Philly and NYC metro regions. The next threat of accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic region comes on Thursday night and early Friday as low pressure pushes to near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Perhaps a bigger story, however, is the cold that appears to be on the way. An impressive cold shot will likely accompany and follow this late week system into the Mid-Atlantic region and then another cold blast is destined to arrive early next week. The blast early next week could turn out be a doozy with “single-digit” type cold…get ready for those heating bills.

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11:30 AM | ****Pounding continues with today’s storm from DC-to-Delmarva-to-southern NJ… power outages an increasing problem…next snow threat for the Mid-Atlantic comes Thursday night/Friday****

Paul Dorian

A new week, a new month, a new year, and a new weather pattern for the eastern US as winter has finally arrived. A significant snowfall continues at this hour in the region from DC-to-the-Delmarva Peninsula-to-southern New Jersey and the snow will wind down later this afternoon from west-to-east. Some snow is now being reported at Philly Airport, but for the most part, today’s storm will bypass the Philly and NYC metro regions as it slides just to their south and east. In addition to very poor road conditions in the hard hit areas, power outages have become an increasing problem given the strong winds and heavy, wet snowfall. Another threat for accumulating snow is likely to come in the Thursday night/early Friday time period and that threat could be for a more widespread part of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.

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11:30 AM | ***New year brings about a new weather pattern…accumulating snow on Monday in parts of Mid-Atlantic with biggest threat zone DC-to-Delmarva-to-southern NJ***

Paul Dorian

The month of December ended with well above normal temperatures throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and the big cities of DC, Philly and NYC had no measurable snow. The new month and new year has coincided with a pattern change in the atmosphere that will bring winter weather to the eastern states including the strong likelihood for significant accumulating snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region with a focus on the zone from DC-to-Delmarva-to-southern New Jersey. A second winter storm is possible late this week that could result in more accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night and Friday.

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1:45 PM | ***An active weather pattern continues...an early weekend strong storm with wide-ranging impacts...second storm could follow on Sunday night/Monday morning in eastern US***

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will continue across much of the nation during the next few days and indeed it is likely to last right through the upcoming New Year’s Day weekend. A huge difference in temperatures currently exists across the country from northwest-to-southeast and it is helping to fuel this activity with multiple low pressure systems to deal with as we head into the new year. A strong storm system on Saturday could have wide-ranging impacts from rainy, unusually mild conditions in much of the eastern US, severe weather in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and accumulating snow from Colorado to Michigan. There is a chance that a follow-up storm takes place at the end of the weekend in the eastern US as sharply colder air pushes in from the northwest….something to monitor closely in coming days.

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10:15 AM | *A series of storms to impact the western states from later today through the weekend…snow measured by the foot for many higher elevation locations*

Paul Dorian

There is calm right now across much of the western US, but that will begin to change dramatically over the next 24 hours or so. A series of storms will impact much of the western states for an extended period of time beginning later today and continuing right through the upcoming weekend. These storms will bring significant rainfall to low-lying coastal sections from southwest Canada to California and substantial snowfall to higher elevation inland locations to be ultimately measured by the foot in many spots. In addition, severe cold will filter southward from western Canada this weekend into the Pacific Northwest and this could result in single digit cold for places like Seattle and Portland by early next week.

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12:00 PM | *Intensifying storm to rock the middle of the nation with tremendous wind gusts of 80-100 mph…power outages already on the rise...severe weather, record warmth...blizzard-like conditions*

Paul Dorian

The strong storm that pounded California in recent days with heavy coastal rains and substantial higher-elevation snows is pushing into the mid-section of the nation today and it will be a high impact event over a large area. First and foremost, this low pressure system will intensify rapidly today and its pressure gradient field will tighten dramatically resulting in tremendous wind gusts of as high as 80-100 mph. Power outages have already been on the rise in the Southwest US and are likely to increase markedly later today and tonight as the storm intensifies and pushes to the north and east.

In addition, as this system pushes northeast from northeastern Colorado towards northeastern Minnesota, there will likely be a severe weather outbreak in its warm sector including the threat of tornadoes. Record high temperatures are likely to be set on the warm side of the storm over a large area. In the cold sector to the north and west of the storm, blizzard-like conditions will form later today and tonight with the combination of heavy, accumulating snow and tremendous winds. Heavy snow fell from this storm system during the past few days from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California to higher elevation locations of the interior western states such as Utah.

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