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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

9:30 AM | *Much colder air mass arrives in time for Easter Sunday...interesting possibilities on Monday/Monday night from coastal storm*

Paul Dorian

Temperatures soared into the 80’s on Wednesday in much of the Mid-Atlantic and in many spots this was the first reading this season at those levels. A repeat performance is in store for today with afternoon highs again likely to be in the 80’s across much of the region, but this time, showers and strong thunderstorms will accompany the warmth. A cold front is sliding this was from the Ohio Valley and an even stronger cold front will arrive late Saturday with more showers and possible thunderstorms. That mid-weekend frontal passage will usher in a colder air mass for Sunday and much of next week will be on the cool side across the northern US. A coastal storm will form early next week and it is likely to result in accumulating snow for the interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.

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11:50 AM | *Baseball’s “Opening Day” is on Thursday and the weather is not being very cooperative…already a couple of postponements*

Paul Dorian

It’s time once again to “Play Ball”…at least the openers are on the schedule for many cities on Thursday and an additional bunch of locations on Friday. The weather is not being very cooperative, however, and there have actually already been a couple of postponements for games originally scheduled for Thursday afternoon. An active weather pattern across the nation will bring about numerous showers and cool conditions on Thursday, Thursday night and Friday in the northeastern quadrant of the nation, winds will remain quite strong in much of the nation’s mid-section, and excessive heat will be a factor for baseball being played in southern California. Looking ahead, there appears to be a flip in the temperature pattern coming to the nation next week with warmer weather on the way for the eastern states and colder conditions in the western US.

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1:00 PM (Tuesday) | *If April showers bring May flowers then we may be in store for quite a colorful month*

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will result in plenty of rain for the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days with a soaker tonight and then additional rain later on Thursday. After that, it doesn’t exactly clear out as a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will set up shop over the northeastern part of the nation for Friday and Saturday bringing us cool, unsettled weather will additional showers possible.

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11:30 AM | ****Severe weather outbreak in the Deep South, Tennessee/Ohio Valleys...damaging wind gusts and tornadoes a high risk…threat shifts east on Thursday...cold air outbreaks to continue****

Paul Dorian

A severe weather outbreak on Wednesday and Wednesday night is coming to the same part of the nation that was hit hard last week including the Deep South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. One of the highest weather risks in this region will be for damaging wind gusts aided by strong jet streaks in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In addition, tornadoes may become rather numerous with many ingredients coming together in the atmosphere for rotation to form in many locations. The severe weather threat will shift to the eastern states on Thursday - albeit not quite as high - as a strong cold front pushes towards the coast and damaging wind gusts will again be on the table. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue for the central and eastern US into at least the middle of April and this will likely result in additional severe weather outbreaks.

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9:30 AM | ***Unusual cold today in the Mid-Atlantic with continuing strong winds...numerous snow showers/squalls will form in destabilizing atmosphere…cold air outbreaks to continue into mid-April***

Paul Dorian

This is quite impressive cold today in the Mid-Atlantic region with many spots likely to have a real struggle to reach the freezing mark for highs – very late in the season for that to occur. The combination of early morning “spring-strength” sunshine and very cold conditions aloft has quickly destabilized the atmosphere and numerous snow showers and heavier snow squalls will affect the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Any snow shower or heavier snow squall can put down a quick accumulation and create dangerous driving conditions. Winds remain strong as well today from a northwesterly direction producing wind chills even lower than the unusually cold actual air temperatures. Unfortunately, it looks like the cold air outbreaks can continue into the middle part of April.

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9:20 AM (Sat) | ***Unstable atmosphere today as colder air begins its push into the Mid-Atlantic…thunder possible with hail/graupel in some spots…below-freezing conditions on the way***

Paul Dorian

In what seems to becoming more and more of an annual tradition, winter is going to make a comeback in early spring. Colder air will begin to make its presence felt later today in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, in the upper part of the atmosphere where the freezing level will lower. As a result of the increasing cold air aloft, the atmosphere will become quite unstable and there will likely be “hit or miss” thunderstorms during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Given the lower freezing level aloft, hail or graupel (snow pellets) can be experienced in some areas during any gusty shower or thunderstorm later today. Winds will increase in strength tonight from the northwest and continue quite strong on Sunday and the passage of a secondary cold front will usher in very cold air for this time of year and below-freezing conditions for late Sunday night and late Monday night. There will be snow showers possible on Sunday associated with the secondary cold front and perhaps even a few heavier snow squalls for interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic..

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1:15 PM | ***Cold blast arrives this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and sticks around for awhile…far below-normal temperatures on Monday***

Paul Dorian

The calendar says its spring, but as has been the case in many recent years, winter will not go away without a fight. A cold blast will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Saturday and by the time we get to the early part of next week, temperatures will be far below-normal for the latter part of March. In fact, this cold air outbreak will likely bring temperatures to below the freezing mark in most areas in the overnight hours early next week making outdoor sensitive plants quite vulnerable to damage. In addition to the cold, the chance for snow (or other forms of frozen precipitation) will return this weekend to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and there may be other threats coming this way later next week.

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2:15 PM | ***A cold blast arrives this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US…temperatures could drop to freezing late Sunday night and again late Monday night***

Paul Dorian

Spring has sprung, but that is not quite the end of the cold air outbreaks for the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast US. In addition, snow cannot be ruled out for interior sections this weekend with the influx of cold air and perhaps there will be another snow threat early-to-mid next week.

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1:00 PM | ****An active Arctic frontal passage to include rain transitioning to accumulating snow/sleet on Saturday...high winds and very cold conditions on Saturday night and Sunday****

Paul Dorian

Many ingredients are going to come together for a very active Arctic cold frontal passage this weekend that will result in rain transitioning to sleet and accumulating snow on Saturday and high winds and very cold conditions for Saturday night and Sunday. There will first be significant accumulations of snow across interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Saturday and then all the way into the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Wind gusts of 50+ mph are likely throughout the northeastern quadrant of the nation from later tomorrow through tomorrow night and into early Sunday with downed tree limbs and scattered power outages on the table. The weather will calm down some by later in the day on Sunday, but it’ll remain much colder-than-normal for this time of year and then a warm up begins on Monday.

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1:15 PM | ****”High wind” event from later Saturday into Saturday night with an Arctic blast…significant interior snows and accumulating snow likely to the I-95 corridor****

Paul Dorian

Many ingredients are going to come together for an extreme wind event in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Saturday into Saturday night. In addition to the expected high winds, snowfall on the back side of an Arctic cold front will be significant across interior sections of the northeastern quadrant of the nation. There can even be some accumulating snow all the way down into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and perhaps to coastal sections of the eastern US. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible later Saturday and Saturday night and that kind of intensity raises the possibility of downed tree limbs and power outages in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. The weather will calm down some by later in the day on Sunday, but it’ll remain much colder-than-normal for this time of year with highs generally confined to the 30’s in the I-95 corridor.

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