An active weather pattern continues across the nation and the overall situation in the upper part of the atmosphere will take on a different twist later this weekend and next week. One of the reasons this pattern has been so active has been an on-going onslaught of colder-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US which adds to the possibility of severe weather outbreaks. One area of concern later today and tonight for the possibility of severe weather is the southern Plains with a focus of attention on Oklahoma and northern Texas. This “enhanced” severe weather threat will shift slightly to the east on Thursday. Looking ahead, very strong high pressure ridging will develop over southeastern Canada later this weekend and into next week and this setup could actually help to push an offshore stalled-out low pressure system back towards the west and to the east coast sometime later next week.
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Temperatures could surge to 80 degrees this Sunday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, but as has been the case for much of the spring, this next warm up will not necessarily stick around for an extended period. In fact, signs point to another shot of cold air for the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week and teleconnection indices suggest we may have to deal with unusually chilly air masses right into the first part of May with overnight lows in the 30’s.
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A late season coastal storm will bring heavy rain to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later today through tonight, strong winds and potential flooding to coastal sections and accumulating to snow to interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, it is not out of the question that some of the northern and western suburbs of the big cities along I-95 see ice pellets or even snow mixed in at times during this unfolding coast storm. An unusually chilly air mass is in place across the northeastern part of the nation, jet streaks will form at multiple levels of the atmosphere, and a vigorous disturbance aloft will all contribute to the formation of a significant storm that will have a variety of impacts over the northeastern quadrant of the nation. Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern states have continued unabated in recent weeks and it looks like they will continue into late April and likely the early part of May.
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Temperatures soared into the 80’s on Wednesday in much of the Mid-Atlantic and in many spots this was the first reading this season at those levels. A repeat performance is in store for today with afternoon highs again likely to be in the 80’s across much of the region, but this time, showers and strong thunderstorms will accompany the warmth. A cold front is sliding this was from the Ohio Valley and an even stronger cold front will arrive late Saturday with more showers and possible thunderstorms. That mid-weekend frontal passage will usher in a colder air mass for Sunday and much of next week will be on the cool side across the northern US. A coastal storm will form early next week and it is likely to result in accumulating snow for the interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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It’s time once again to “Play Ball”…at least the openers are on the schedule for many cities on Thursday and an additional bunch of locations on Friday. The weather is not being very cooperative, however, and there have actually already been a couple of postponements for games originally scheduled for Thursday afternoon. An active weather pattern across the nation will bring about numerous showers and cool conditions on Thursday, Thursday night and Friday in the northeastern quadrant of the nation, winds will remain quite strong in much of the nation’s mid-section, and excessive heat will be a factor for baseball being played in southern California. Looking ahead, there appears to be a flip in the temperature pattern coming to the nation next week with warmer weather on the way for the eastern states and colder conditions in the western US.
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An active weather pattern will result in plenty of rain for the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days with a soaker tonight and then additional rain later on Thursday. After that, it doesn’t exactly clear out as a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will set up shop over the northeastern part of the nation for Friday and Saturday bringing us cool, unsettled weather will additional showers possible.
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A severe weather outbreak on Wednesday and Wednesday night is coming to the same part of the nation that was hit hard last week including the Deep South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. One of the highest weather risks in this region will be for damaging wind gusts aided by strong jet streaks in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In addition, tornadoes may become rather numerous with many ingredients coming together in the atmosphere for rotation to form in many locations. The severe weather threat will shift to the eastern states on Thursday - albeit not quite as high - as a strong cold front pushes towards the coast and damaging wind gusts will again be on the table. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue for the central and eastern US into at least the middle of April and this will likely result in additional severe weather outbreaks.
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This is quite impressive cold today in the Mid-Atlantic region with many spots likely to have a real struggle to reach the freezing mark for highs – very late in the season for that to occur. The combination of early morning “spring-strength” sunshine and very cold conditions aloft has quickly destabilized the atmosphere and numerous snow showers and heavier snow squalls will affect the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Any snow shower or heavier snow squall can put down a quick accumulation and create dangerous driving conditions. Winds remain strong as well today from a northwesterly direction producing wind chills even lower than the unusually cold actual air temperatures. Unfortunately, it looks like the cold air outbreaks can continue into the middle part of April.
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In what seems to becoming more and more of an annual tradition, winter is going to make a comeback in early spring. Colder air will begin to make its presence felt later today in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, in the upper part of the atmosphere where the freezing level will lower. As a result of the increasing cold air aloft, the atmosphere will become quite unstable and there will likely be “hit or miss” thunderstorms during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Given the lower freezing level aloft, hail or graupel (snow pellets) can be experienced in some areas during any gusty shower or thunderstorm later today. Winds will increase in strength tonight from the northwest and continue quite strong on Sunday and the passage of a secondary cold front will usher in very cold air for this time of year and below-freezing conditions for late Sunday night and late Monday night. There will be snow showers possible on Sunday associated with the secondary cold front and perhaps even a few heavier snow squalls for interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic..
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The calendar says its spring, but as has been the case in many recent years, winter will not go away without a fight. A cold blast will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Saturday and by the time we get to the early part of next week, temperatures will be far below-normal for the latter part of March. In fact, this cold air outbreak will likely bring temperatures to below the freezing mark in most areas in the overnight hours early next week making outdoor sensitive plants quite vulnerable to damage. In addition to the cold, the chance for snow (or other forms of frozen precipitation) will return this weekend to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and there may be other threats coming this way later next week.
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