After pounding Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Monday, Hurricane Fiona has intensified into the season’s first “major” hurricane with category 3 classification and can attain category 4 status over the next few days as it gradually turns to the northeast. On this track, Hurricane Fiona will come close to Bermuda by early Friday and become increasingly influenced by an amplifying upper-level ridge over the northeastern US. This upper-level trough will result in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and ultimately could cause Fiona to pull back towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces this weekend with the potential of a direct impact. Meanwhile, another tropical system is organizing east of the Windward Islands and it has a chance of intensifying over the warm Caribbean Sea during the next several days and ultimately, could become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico region.
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Hurricane Fiona is crossing over the eastern side of Hispaniola this morning and is pounding away at the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico with heavy rainfall, flash flooding and powerful winds. After moving away from land, Fiona will gradually make a turn during the next few days from its current northwest movement to north and then to the northeast ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough of low pressure that will build over the northeastern part of the nation. Fiona is likely to become the season’s first “major” hurricane during the next couple of days while out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic Ocean. The upper-level trough that will intensify over the northeastern states will help to keep Fiona away from the US east coast and will result in an outbreak of cool air late this week in the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US - the coolest air mass so far this season.
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We have reached the mid-point of September and this is climatologically-speaking right around the peak time of the Atlantic Basin tropical season. True to form, there is a now a tropical storm named “Fiona” over the central Atlantic and it is likely to impact the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later this weekend. Beyond that, it is somewhat unclear as to where Fiona will travel with one scenario featuring a continued movement to the west and towards the Gulf of Mexico and a second possibility with a “curvature to the north” over the Bahamas and then the western Atlantic off the eastern seaboard.
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The combination of a vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure and an approaching cold front is setting off the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these can result in heavy rainfall from this afternoon into later tonight. The showers and storms can reach the DC and Philly metro regions anytime after 2 pm and then during the late afternoon hours in the NYC metro region and the threat in all places will continue into late evening. The front pushes through the region later tomorrow setting the stage for some nice weather on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
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Hurricane Kay has been downgraded to tropical storm status in the overnight hours as it moves roughly parallel to the northwestern coast of Baja California and it will push farther away and continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. However, despite the weakening and the push away from the coast, Tropical Storm Kay will combine with strong high pressure to the north to generate some significant rain and wind across southern California today, tonight and tomorrow. In fact, bands of rain can produce as much as 6 inches in some spots with flash flooding and wind gusts across southern California can reach 60+ mph during this event.
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It has been quite dry in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and this spell has changed in a big-time way during the last 24 hours with significant rainfall. The combination of a slow-moving frontal system and low pressure has resulted in as much as 8+ inches of rain in some spots and much the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston has been impacted. At mid-day, the heaviest of the rain is falling along coastal sections from New Jersey to southern New England, but flooding issues remain at inland locations. Residual showers are likely from later today into Wednesday and then nice weather is in store for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
On the tropical scene, “Earl” is a strong tropical storm over the western Atlantic and moving slowly to the north. It will likely intensify into a hurricane over the next 24 hours or so - perhaps even a “major” - as it gradually turns to the northeast and likely avoiding any direct impact on the east coast. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific features Hurricane “Kay” which could very well throw some moisture into southern California by the end of the week.
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It has been quite dry in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and some rain would be a welcome break in this pattern. A strong cool front will indeed bring some rain to the area later today and tonight and some of the thunderstorms that develop can be on the strong-to-severe side with brief downpours and gusty winds. The cool front clears the coast by morning and tomorrow will become quite breezy and noticeably less humid than the steamy conditions of both today and yesterday. The nice weather will continue on Thursday and Friday as strong high pressure builds into the northeastern states during the latter part of the week.
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The tropics have come alive and there are multiple systems to monitor in coming days across the Atlantic Basin. This significant uptick in tropical activity follows a very quiet stretch during July and much of August, but the overall pattern is now more favorable for development and intensification as we get ready to cross into the month of September. The climatological peak of the tropical season in the Atlantic Basin is around the 10th of September at which time sea surface temperatures tend to reach their annual peaks.
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We have now passed the mid-point of the month of August and, so far, tropical activity has been considerably below-normal in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, activity across the northern hemisphere as a whole has been below-normal as measured by a metric known as the “accumulated cyclone energy” or ACE. There are signs, however, that the lid is about to come off in the Atlantic Basin where a big-time increase in activity is increasingly likely over the next few weeks and beginning as early as this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico.
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The Desert Southwest has been anything but “desert-like” in recent weeks with copious amounts of rainfall associated with the annual monsoon season in the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Monsoons are well known in eastern Asia, but they also occur in other parts of the world including right here in the southwestern US. The typical time for the monsoon season in this country is from about mid-June to the end of September and it certainly got off to a quick start this year. In addition to monsoonal-aided rainfall, there will soon be an influx of tropical moisture that will contribute to additional heavy rainfall across the Southwest US and flash flooding is a serious concern.
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