Tropical Storm Nicole is headed towards east-central Florida for a likely landfall early Thursday morning. Some intensification is likely during the next 24-36 hours before landfall which could result in Nicole reaching category 1 or even 2 hurricane status before making landfall. After landfall, Nicole will be increasingly influenced by a deep upper-level trough over the central states and it’ll turn to the north and northeast resulting in a major rain event all along the east coast from Florida-to-Maine. In addition to the rain, severe weather will be a threat in the coastal plain from the Carolinas to the Northeast US which will be on the right side of the storm track…prime location for tornadic activity. The passage of the tropical system will be part of an overall significant temperature pattern change in the eastern US that will bring much colder weather conditions beginning this weekend and likely lasting through the remainder of November.
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The tropical scene is still active and kicking in the Atlantic Basin and an area of disturbed weather in recent days has organized into Tropical Storm Nicole over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This system is likely to reach Florida later this week and there is a chance that it reaches category 1 hurricane status before making landfall. The moisture associated with Nicole is likely to then ride up along the eastern seaboard at week’s end. The passage of the tropical system will be part of an overall significant temperature pattern change across the nation that will bring much colder weather conditions to the central and eastern US.
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The tropical scene is still active and kicking in the Atlantic Basin as we begin the month of November with a couple systems to currently monitor and signs point to the possibility of another system near the east coast in about 7-10 days. Tropical Storm “Martin” - soon to be Hurricane “Martin” - is located well out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and will become a powerful “extratropical” storm in the North Atlantic later this week. “Lisa” is now a category 1 hurricane and is closing in on Belize in Central America and could ultimately emerge over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, the overall pattern looks to remain warmer-than-normal across the eastern US during the next 7-10 days, but important changes can come in terms of temperatures for the middle and latter parts of November.
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There have been a few chilly air masses that have reached the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in recent weeks, but the one destined to arrive here for next Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the chilliest so far this season. A deep upper-level trough of low pressure will tend to rotate around and intensify during the next few days over the Great Lakes and southern part of Canada and then this system will spin its way into the eastern US by the middle of next week. With lots of instability in the atmosphere and the cold air mass pushing over the still relatively warm of the Great Lakes, snow showers are likely just downstream for the first time this season.
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The month of October has gotten off to a very chilly start in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be another chilly air mass headed this way for the upcoming weekend. In fact, the lowest temperature readings of the season so far could come early Sunday morning, but this will very likely not be the low point of the month. Additional chilly air outbreaks are destined to move from central Canada and into the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of weeks and these could very well have an Arctic connection.
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The noontime temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor were especially low for this time of year and several spots may indeed set “record low maximum” temperatures for the date. Stubborn surface low pressure continues to spin near the Mid-Atlantic coastline at mid-day and it is supported by a strong upper-level low. As a result, winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere have been strong and persistent from a north-northeast direction contributing to the unusual chill. Looking ahead, it looks like additional very chilly air masses are headed to the Great Lakes, Midwest and northeastern quadrant of the country in coming days and weeks with the next shot arriving for the upcoming weekend.
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Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to impact the Mid-Atlantic region into the middle part of the week with rain, wind and chilly conditions along with coastal flooding. This system which is connected to a post-tropical Ian will tend to drift away from the coast later today only to return on Tuesday and this will extend the nasty weather into early Wednesday. An upper-level trough to our northwest will then be able to finally kick this system out-to-sea by Thursday ahead of the next cool front that ushers in another cool air mass for the weekend.
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Ian has returned to hurricane status on Thursday evening over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the western Atlantic Ocean. It is likely to make another landfall as a hurricane…this time in South Carolina and likely near Charleston at mid-day. Rain from Ian’s remains will push northward into the Mid-Atlantic region late tomorrow and continue into the weekend and some of the rain will be heavy at times along with gusty winds.
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In a storm that will rival the great hurricane of 1921 for its impact on west-central Florida, Hurricane Ian has climbed to category 4 (“major”) status and will unfortunately likely have a devastating impact on the state from today into Thursday. Although there is some wind shear in the vicinity of the storm, Hurricane Ian is large, powerful, and a slow-mover which will exacerbate the effects of torrential rain, powerful winds and a dangerous storm surge on the western side. The hurricane will cross central Florida and then ride up just off the northeast Florida coastline and likely return as a tropical storm somewhere near the Georgia/South Carolina later Friday. The remnant heavy rain and strong winds of Ian will push up through the eastern US late this week and this weekend with impacts all the way to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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After pounding Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Monday, Hurricane Fiona has intensified into the season’s first “major” hurricane with category 3 classification and can attain category 4 status over the next few days as it gradually turns to the northeast. On this track, Hurricane Fiona will come close to Bermuda by early Friday and become increasingly influenced by an amplifying upper-level ridge over the northeastern US. This upper-level trough will result in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and ultimately could cause Fiona to pull back towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces this weekend with the potential of a direct impact. Meanwhile, another tropical system is organizing east of the Windward Islands and it has a chance of intensifying over the warm Caribbean Sea during the next several days and ultimately, could become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico region.
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