The overall weather pattern will be quite active from this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats in the northeastern US and a possible severe weather threat around Tuesday of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Cold air is trying to work its way into the northeastern US on a consistent basis, but likely won’t be able to until later next week. Nonetheless, there will be enough cold air around for a likely Sunday/Monday storm threat to at least produce a chance of accumulating snow in the northeastern states. Another storm system will likely arrive in the eastern states by the middle of next week and there may be enough cold air around for some frozen precipitation at the onset in portions of the Northeast US. More sustained cold air will follow later next week.
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A strong cold front passed through the eastern states late Wednesday and much colder air has pushed in on stiff NW winds. This cold shot will be somewhat short-lived, however, as the first half of the upcoming weekend will turn much milder once again in the eastern US as the next frontal system approaches with a broad southwesterly flow of air ahead of it. Looking ahead, high-latitude blocking will develop in coming days and this will aid in a more sustained cold weather pattern in much of the nation with impact in the eastern states coming after about the 7th or so. In addition, the upcoming colder-than-normal weather pattern is likely to become more active before we get to the middle of the month and the period between about the 10th and 13th may be quite volatile near the eastern seaboard.
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A potent cold front will wreak havoc across the eastern half of the nation from today into Thursday with a severe weather threat later today into tonight across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys - to include the possibility of isolated tornadoes - and potential damaging wind gusts from later tomorrow into tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. An intensifying low pressure system will help to strengthen a low-level jet on Tuesday afternoon and evening and this wind field will translate into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later tomorrow/tomorrow night and 50+ mph wind gusts will be on the table.
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A potent cold front will wreak havoc across the eastern half of the nation from tomorrow into Thursday with potential damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. An intensifying low pressure system will help to strengthen a low-level jet on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions. The result will be a high likelihood of damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. This same powerful low-level jet will translate to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and strong wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be a threat on Wednesday ahead of the front and also on Thursday following its passage.
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After a very mild start to the month of November in much of the eastern half of the nation, the weather has been primarily colder-than-normal during the last ten days or so. In fact, numerous low temperature records were set last week and earlier this week in what was an unusually widespread and severe cold air outbreak across much of the nation. Looking ahead, it looks like it’ll be seasonal or even warmer-than-normal in the central and eastern in coming days as we close out the month of November. Numerous signs, however, point to the return of a colder-than-normal weather pattern during the month of December. probably with sustained cold reaching the eastern US after the 7th or 8th.
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Temperatures across most of the nation remain below-normal for this time of year and will continue to do so through the upcoming weekend. Accumulating snow is now falling in parts of the Rocky Mountain States and an intense Great Lakes snow event is just getting underway. In fact, the lake effect snow event that is just getting underway looks like it’ll be of long-duration possibly producing as much as 3-6 feet in places like Buffalo and Watertown of western New York State. Looking ahead, there are signs that after a milder first half of next week in the eastern states, the overall weather pattern could get interesting by the end of next week with a powerful coastal storm on the table…something to monitor in coming days.
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Temperatures across the nation this morning averaged out to an impressive reading of nearly 12 degrees (F) below-normal for mid-November and no state in the Lower 48 escaped the colder-than-normal chill. The first widespread snow event of the season took place late yesterday in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with half of foot of snow recorded in some areas. The next few days will feature a “Great Lakes snow-making machine” that will be turned on in full force and the result may be several feet of snow in some downstream locations such as Buffalo and Watertown in western New York. The nationwide cold will continue right through the upcoming weekend.
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This “middle” week of the month of November could turn out to be one of the coldest in a long, long time for the nation as a whole with virtually coast-to-coast colder-than-normal weather conditions. There was a smattering of low temperature records set this morning across the central and western US and numerous records are likely to be set later this week and weekend; especially, across the central states where temperatures could drop to as much as thirty degrees below normal for this time of year.
In terms of snowfall in this unusual early season cold wave, it looks like the first widespread snow of the season will take place from later today into early Wednesday across interior, higher elevation sections of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Later this week, an intense Great Lakes snow event will kick into gear with paralyzing amounts of snow possible in some spots such as Buffalo and Watertown in western New York.
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At the same time Tropical Storm Nicole was pounding Florida on Friday with rain and wind, a blizzard was raging in the Northern Plains where two feet of snow piled up in such places as Bismarck, North Dakota. That late week cold air mass situated in the Northern Plains subsequently made its way into the northeastern US following the departure of Nicole to the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The exit of Nicole helped to bring about a change to the overall upper air wind pattern across North America. In fact, not only has the eastern US chilled down during the past 24 hours, virtually the entire nation is now featuring colder-than-normal temperatures and will likely do so right through the weekend. By the end of the week, many low temperature records will have been broken; especially, across the center part of the nation and every state in the Lower 48 can experience below-freezing temperatures.
In terms of snow potential, a coastal low will intensify by tomorrow night just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline resulting in a cold, soaking rain in the immediate I-95 corridor and to coastal sections, but the first accumulating snowfall of the season is likely in many of the interior, higher elevation locations across the northeastern states. The chill may ease up for awhile later next week, but there are signs for a resumption of the cold pattern going into late November and December.
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Nicole climbed to category 1 hurricane status late yesterday and came ashore in the overnight hours near Vero Beach in east-central Florida. After landfall, Nicole has weakened slightly back to tropical storm status and will become increasingly influenced by a deep upper-level trough over the north-central states that is contributing to blizzard-like conditions in the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. The remains of Nicole will ride up along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains over the next 24-48 hours resulting in a significant rain and wind event all the way from Florida-to-Maine. On the east side of the expected storm track, severe weather will be a possibility including the threat of isolated tornadoes. The passage of the tropical storm will be part of an overall significant temperature pattern change in the central and eastern US that will bring much colder weather conditions for the remainder of November.
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