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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

1:00 PM | ***Wintry mix at onset of late week storm system in Mid-Atlantic region…very cold pattern now across much of Europe/Asia…sets up across US later next week…active pattern continues***

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern has become quite active and the latest storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation during the next few days.  In fact, this system has already contributed to several feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades out west and blizzard conditions will develop on Tuesday across the northern Rocky Mountain states. By tomorrow night and Wednesday, this storm system will bring blizzard conditions to the and Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 

At the same time, the warm sector of this storm will likely feature some severe weather from later tomorrow into Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.  On Thursday, the precipitation field from this impactful storm system will reach the Mid-Atlantic region and the onset is likely to feature a wintry mix - even into the I-95 corridor before an eventual changeover to plain rain.

Looking ahead, a very cold pattern is destined to develop across the central and eastern US later next week.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia – often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active as well increasing the chances for a White Christmas in much of the northern US.

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2:00 PM (Fri.) | ****Rain/snow in Mid-Atl. on Sunday…mid-week Northern Plains blizzard, MS/TN Valley severe weather threat...wintry mix possible in Mid-Atl. Thurs/Fri...…cross-polar flow****

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern across the nation will be quite active from later this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats. One low pressure system will form over the Midwest on Saturday and then its precipitation shield will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday. Enough cold air will be around for snow on Sunday in much of the northern Mid-Atlantic with accumulations of up to a few inches likely in some interior and higher elevation locations. Another storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation next week with a possible severe weather outbreak late Tuesday/Tuesday night in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and blizzard conditions across the Northern Plains. This system and its precipitation field likely reaches the eastern states later next week and frozen precipitation will likely be in the mix: especially, if re-development of a surface low takes place near the east coast which could make for more of a serious winter storm threat in the Mid-Atlantic. The evolving pattern should feature more sustained cold air in the eastern states following that mid-to-late week storm system and “cross-polar flow” later this month will assure some very cold air masses reaching into North America.

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12:30 PM | **Active pattern setting up with multiple storm threats in coming days…possible severe weather outbreak in the Lower MS Valley next week**

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern will be quite active from this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats in the northeastern US and a possible severe weather threat around Tuesday of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Cold air is trying to work its way into the northeastern US on a consistent basis, but likely won’t be able to until later next week. Nonetheless, there will be enough cold air around for a likely Sunday/Monday storm threat to at least produce a chance of accumulating snow in the northeastern states. Another storm system will likely arrive in the eastern states by the middle of next week and there may be enough cold air around for some frozen precipitation at the onset in portions of the Northeast US. More sustained cold air will follow later next week.

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11:30 AM | ***December is underway and the weather could get very interesting…signs point to a colder-than-normal pattern across much of the nation...may also become quite active in ten days or so***

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front passed through the eastern states late Wednesday and much colder air has pushed in on stiff NW winds. This cold shot will be somewhat short-lived, however, as the first half of the upcoming weekend will turn much milder once again in the eastern US as the next frontal system approaches with a broad southwesterly flow of air ahead of it. Looking ahead, high-latitude blocking will develop in coming days and this will aid in a more sustained cold weather pattern in much of the nation with impact in the eastern states coming after about the 7th or so. In addition, the upcoming colder-than-normal weather pattern is likely to become more active before we get to the middle of the month and the period between about the 10th and 13th may be quite volatile near the eastern seaboard.

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12:00 PM (Tues) | ***Severe weather threat today Lower MS/TN Valleys…50 mph wind gusts later Wed./Wed. night Mid-Atl./NE US…numerous signs continue to point to a cold December pattern***

Paul Dorian

A potent cold front will wreak havoc across the eastern half of the nation from today into Thursday with a severe weather threat later today into tonight across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys - to include the possibility of isolated tornadoes - and potential damaging wind gusts from later tomorrow into tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. An intensifying low pressure system will help to strengthen a low-level jet on Tuesday afternoon and evening and this wind field will translate into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later tomorrow/tomorrow night and 50+ mph wind gusts will be on the table.

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10:15 AM | **A potent cold front to produce severe weather threat on Tuesday/Tuesday night in MS/TN Valleys…gusts up to 50 mph in Mid-Atlantic Wednesday/Thursday surrounding the frontal passage**

Paul Dorian

A potent cold front will wreak havoc across the eastern half of the nation from tomorrow into Thursday with potential damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. An intensifying low pressure system will help to strengthen a low-level jet on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions. The result will be a high likelihood of damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. This same powerful low-level jet will translate to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and strong wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be a threat on Wednesday ahead of the front and also on Thursday following its passage.

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***A look ahead to the month of December…numerous signs point to the re-establishment of a colder-than-normal weather pattern***

Paul Dorian

After a very mild start to the month of November in much of the eastern half of the nation, the weather has been primarily colder-than-normal during the last ten days or so. In fact, numerous low temperature records were set last week and earlier this week in what was an unusually widespread and severe cold air outbreak across much of the nation. Looking ahead, it looks like it’ll be seasonal or even warmer-than-normal in the central and eastern in coming days as we close out the month of November. Numerous signs, however, point to the return of a colder-than-normal weather pattern during the month of December. probably with sustained cold reaching the eastern US after the 7th or 8th.

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2:15 PM (Thurs) | ***A wintry look across the nation with coast-to-coast cold…intense Great Lakes snow event with "thundersnow"...Rockies snow…and perhaps an eastern US storm threat late next week***

Paul Dorian

Temperatures across most of the nation remain below-normal for this time of year and will continue to do so through the upcoming weekend. Accumulating snow is now falling in parts of the Rocky Mountain States and an intense Great Lakes snow event is just getting underway. In fact, the lake effect snow event that is just getting underway looks like it’ll be of long-duration possibly producing as much as 3-6 feet in places like Buffalo and Watertown of western New York State. Looking ahead, there are signs that after a milder first half of next week in the eastern states, the overall weather pattern could get interesting by the end of next week with a powerful coastal storm on the table…something to monitor in coming days.

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1:30 PM (Wed) - ***Nationwide cold wave continues with numerous low temperature records likely to be set…intense Great Lakes snow event on the way***

Paul Dorian

Temperatures across the nation this morning averaged out to an impressive reading of nearly 12 degrees (F) below-normal for mid-November and no state in the Lower 48 escaped the colder-than-normal chill. The first widespread snow event of the season took place late yesterday in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with half of foot of snow recorded in some areas. The next few days will feature a “Great Lakes snow-making machine” that will be turned on in full force and the result may be several feet of snow in some downstream locations such as Buffalo and Watertown in western New York. The nationwide cold will continue right through the upcoming weekend.

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2:00 PM | ***Coast-to-coast cold continues through the weekend…numerous low temperature records on the way…snow today interior Mid-Atl./NE US…intense Great Lakes snow event on the way***

Paul Dorian

This “middle” week of the month of November could turn out to be one of the coldest in a long, long time for the nation as a whole with virtually coast-to-coast colder-than-normal weather conditions. There was a smattering of low temperature records set this morning across the central and western US and numerous records are likely to be set later this week and weekend; especially, across the central states where temperatures could drop to as much as thirty degrees below normal for this time of year.

In terms of snowfall in this unusual early season cold wave, it looks like the first widespread snow of the season will take place from later today into early Wednesday across interior, higher elevation sections of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Later this week, an intense Great Lakes snow event will kick into gear with paralyzing amounts of snow possible in some spots such as Buffalo and Watertown in western New York.

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