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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

8:15 AM ***Major Arctic outbreak plunges through central US…powerful Arctic front reaches Mid-Atlantic late Friday...damaging winds, quick freeze-up, even a snow squall…very cold Christmas weekend****

Paul Dorian

A major Arctic air outbreak will blast into the US this week. The core of the frigid air will drop southeastward on Monday from western Canada into Montana/North Dakota and then dive southward to Texas by later in the week. Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set in this outbreak all the way from the US/Canada border to the US/Mexico border. The Arctic air mass will then make another move on Friday to the northeast with a powerful surface frontal system at the leading edge of the advancing cold air mass.

The powerful Arctic front will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor likely late Friday and its passage could be quite dramatic. Damaging winds are possible late Friday, temperatures will drop sharply, and there can be a quick freeze-up or “flash-freeze” of any lingering wet spots on roadways.  In addition, snow showers or even heavier snow squalls can develop as the Arctic air pours into the region in a still very unstable atmosphere. Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) will be very cold throughout the eastern US with some of the coldest weather conditions for these two days in many years.

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12:45 PM | *****Record-breaking Arctic outbreak next week and a very cold looking Christmas weekend……major storm may precede the Arctic blast…significant snow next 24 hours interior Northeast US*****

Paul Dorian

A record-breaking Arctic air outbreak will blast into the US next week. This frigid air mass will spread south and east next week - no doubt breaking numerous low temperature records along the way - and reach the eastern states by week’s end. A very cold Christmas weekend is in store for much of the eastern half of the nation. In fact, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (Saturday, Sunday) could turn out to the coldest such in many years across much of the eastern half of the nation. With respect to snow chances, there may very well be a major storm system that forms on the leading edge of the Arctic blast at the end of next week in the eastern US which raises hope for a white Christmas in many locations.

Meanwhile, in the short-term, the major storm that has pounded much of the country in recent days with blizzard conditions in northern areas and severe weather in southern states is now impacting the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.  Rain will be the dominate precipitation type from here on out in the immediate I-95 corridor to go along with increasingly strong easterly winds. Significant snow is on the table for upstate PA, upstate NY, and the interior part of New England with some spots likely to receive more than a foot. Following this storm, much of the nation will experience colder-than-normal conditions this weekend with virtually coast-to-coast below-normal temperatures.

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1:00 PM | ****An icy mess early tomorrow in the DC-to-Philly corridor; especially, N/W suburbs…plain rain later along I-95 and some will be heavy…major Arctic outbreak into the US later next week****

Paul Dorian

A powerful storm that has caused problems in much of the nation in recent days will impact the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tonight into early Friday. Heavy snow associated with this impactful storm system fell this past weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California and southern Cascades. Significant snow then fell from Monday into Tuesday across the northern Rockies and Northern Plains and today’s blizzard conditions will extend east to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, in the warm sector of this large-scale storm system, severe weather including isolated tornadoes broke out yesterday from Texas/Oklahoma to Louisiana and the threat zone today will shift slightly to the east to include Mississippi and Alabama.

By late tonight, precipitation will break out in the Mid-Atlantic and an icy mess is on the table for early Thursday from DC-to-Philly; especially, in the northern and western suburbs of those cities. Increasingly strong easterly winds will pump in slightly milder maritime air later tomorrow bringing about a transition to plain rain and some of it will become heavy at times into the nighttime hours to go along with those strong winds. 

Looking ahead, a major Arctic air outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the frigid air mass will likely last stick around right through the Christmas weekend in much of the central and eastern US.  Arctic cold has gripped Europe for the past several days and this is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold weather pattern will remain quite active as well next week increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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2:00 PM | ***Blizzard/severe weather today…an icy mess in parts of I-95 corridor early Thursday…significant snows interior Mid-Atl./NE US…widespread Arctic outbreak in US later next week***

Paul Dorian

A major storm system continues to wreak havoc across the nation today with blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains and severe weather in the south-central US.  This same system dumped 6 feet of snow over the weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California. As this initial storm system grinds to a halt over the Upper Midwest later this week, a secondary storm will form near the eastern seaboard.  This system will bring significant snows to interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Thursday into Friday while the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is likely to experience a wintry mix at the onset of the event followed by heavy (plain) rain and strong winds. 

Looking ahead, an Arctic outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the biting cold will likely last right through Christmas weekend in the central and eastern states.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia which is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active later next week with storm chances increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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1:00 PM | ***Wintry mix at onset of late week storm system in Mid-Atlantic region…very cold pattern now across much of Europe/Asia…sets up across US later next week…active pattern continues***

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern has become quite active and the latest storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation during the next few days.  In fact, this system has already contributed to several feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades out west and blizzard conditions will develop on Tuesday across the northern Rocky Mountain states. By tomorrow night and Wednesday, this storm system will bring blizzard conditions to the and Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 

At the same time, the warm sector of this storm will likely feature some severe weather from later tomorrow into Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.  On Thursday, the precipitation field from this impactful storm system will reach the Mid-Atlantic region and the onset is likely to feature a wintry mix - even into the I-95 corridor before an eventual changeover to plain rain.

Looking ahead, a very cold pattern is destined to develop across the central and eastern US later next week.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia – often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active as well increasing the chances for a White Christmas in much of the northern US.

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2:00 PM (Fri.) | ****Rain/snow in Mid-Atl. on Sunday…mid-week Northern Plains blizzard, MS/TN Valley severe weather threat...wintry mix possible in Mid-Atl. Thurs/Fri...…cross-polar flow****

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern across the nation will be quite active from later this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats. One low pressure system will form over the Midwest on Saturday and then its precipitation shield will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday. Enough cold air will be around for snow on Sunday in much of the northern Mid-Atlantic with accumulations of up to a few inches likely in some interior and higher elevation locations. Another storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation next week with a possible severe weather outbreak late Tuesday/Tuesday night in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and blizzard conditions across the Northern Plains. This system and its precipitation field likely reaches the eastern states later next week and frozen precipitation will likely be in the mix: especially, if re-development of a surface low takes place near the east coast which could make for more of a serious winter storm threat in the Mid-Atlantic. The evolving pattern should feature more sustained cold air in the eastern states following that mid-to-late week storm system and “cross-polar flow” later this month will assure some very cold air masses reaching into North America.

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12:30 PM | **Active pattern setting up with multiple storm threats in coming days…possible severe weather outbreak in the Lower MS Valley next week**

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern will be quite active from this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats in the northeastern US and a possible severe weather threat around Tuesday of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Cold air is trying to work its way into the northeastern US on a consistent basis, but likely won’t be able to until later next week. Nonetheless, there will be enough cold air around for a likely Sunday/Monday storm threat to at least produce a chance of accumulating snow in the northeastern states. Another storm system will likely arrive in the eastern states by the middle of next week and there may be enough cold air around for some frozen precipitation at the onset in portions of the Northeast US. More sustained cold air will follow later next week.

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11:30 AM | ***December is underway and the weather could get very interesting…signs point to a colder-than-normal pattern across much of the nation...may also become quite active in ten days or so***

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front passed through the eastern states late Wednesday and much colder air has pushed in on stiff NW winds. This cold shot will be somewhat short-lived, however, as the first half of the upcoming weekend will turn much milder once again in the eastern US as the next frontal system approaches with a broad southwesterly flow of air ahead of it. Looking ahead, high-latitude blocking will develop in coming days and this will aid in a more sustained cold weather pattern in much of the nation with impact in the eastern states coming after about the 7th or so. In addition, the upcoming colder-than-normal weather pattern is likely to become more active before we get to the middle of the month and the period between about the 10th and 13th may be quite volatile near the eastern seaboard.

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12:00 PM (Tues) | ***Severe weather threat today Lower MS/TN Valleys…50 mph wind gusts later Wed./Wed. night Mid-Atl./NE US…numerous signs continue to point to a cold December pattern***

Paul Dorian

A potent cold front will wreak havoc across the eastern half of the nation from today into Thursday with a severe weather threat later today into tonight across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys - to include the possibility of isolated tornadoes - and potential damaging wind gusts from later tomorrow into tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. An intensifying low pressure system will help to strengthen a low-level jet on Tuesday afternoon and evening and this wind field will translate into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later tomorrow/tomorrow night and 50+ mph wind gusts will be on the table.

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10:15 AM | **A potent cold front to produce severe weather threat on Tuesday/Tuesday night in MS/TN Valleys…gusts up to 50 mph in Mid-Atlantic Wednesday/Thursday surrounding the frontal passage**

Paul Dorian

A potent cold front will wreak havoc across the eastern half of the nation from tomorrow into Thursday with potential damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. An intensifying low pressure system will help to strengthen a low-level jet on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions. The result will be a high likelihood of damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. This same powerful low-level jet will translate to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and strong wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be a threat on Wednesday ahead of the front and also on Thursday following its passage.

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