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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

10:00 AM | ****Buckle up…wild and crazy weather next 36 hours in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US****

Paul Dorian

Buckle up…the next 36 hours or so in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will feature some wild and crazy weather to include the following:

-heavy rain including thunderstorms

-localized flash flooding

-a surge in temperatures to the 50’s

-extreme plunge in temperatures to the single digits

-flash-freeze

-a burst of snow with small accumulations

-powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts

All of this weather can take place between about noon today and midnight tomorrow night headlined by a soaking rain event into early Friday and then the arrival of an intensely cold Arctic air mass later Friday morning.

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2:20 PM | ****Arctic air mass drops south to Texas then shifts east…reaches I-95 corridor late morning/mid-day on Friday...plunging temperatures, damaging winds, flash freeze, burst of snow****

Paul Dorian

The core of an intensely cold Arctic air mass is now getting ready to plunge southward to Texas by later tomorrow and then it’ll shift to the eastern states on Friday.  Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set over the next couple of days as this air mass makes its way across the nation. Blizzard conditions will accompany this advancing Arctic air outbreak over much of the eastern half of the country with the Great Lakes region likely to experience some of the worst weather with an extended period of extreme conditions from Friday into late weekend. 

The powerful Arctic frontal system that represents the leading edge of this intensely cold air mass will reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor during the late morning/mid-day on Friday.  Temperatures will drop dramatically in the wake of the frontal passage some 30+ degrees in a short period of time. Any wet spots on roadways from prior rainfall could freeze-up in a hurry.  There will be very strong wind gusts on Friday and a burst of snow is likely immediately behind the frontal passage that can produce a quick coating to an inch or two.  A frigid weekend will follow with Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) the coldest in many years across much of the eastern half of the nation. Single digits are likely in many spots along the I-95 corridor both on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

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2:00 PM | ****Arctic air mass drops south to Texas…Arctic front reaches I-95 corridor mid-day/afternoon on Friday...plunging temperatures, damaging winds, quick freeze, even a burst of snow****

Paul Dorian

The core of an intensely cold Arctic air mass is now penetrating the northwest and north-central parts of the nation, and it will drop southward towards Texas during the next 48 hours. After that, the Arctic air mass will shift to the east and reach the eastern seaboard by late Friday.  Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set over the next few days; especially, in the central US from the Canadian border to the Mexican border. Blizzard conditions will accompany this advancing Arctic air outbreak during the next few days over many sections of the country with the Great Lakes region likely to experience some of the worst with an extended period of extreme conditions from Friday into much of the upcoming weekend. 

The strong Arctic frontal system that represents the leading edge of this intensely cold air mass will likely reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor during the mid-day and afternoon hours on Friday.  The passage of the powerful Arctic front will not go unnoticed.  On the table will be plunging temperatures on the order of 25 or 30 degrees in a short period of time, powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts, a possible “flash-freeze”, and even a burst of snow that can put down a quick small accumulation of a coating to an inch or two  A frigid weekend will follow with Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) the coldest in many years in much of the eastern half of the nation. Single digits are certainly a possibility along the I-95 corridor both on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

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1:00 PM | ****Major Arctic outbreak reaches northern US…powerful Arctic front reaches I-95 corridor Friday afternoon...damaging winds, "flash-freeze", even a burst of snow…frigid Christmas weekend****

Paul Dorian

A major Arctic air outbreak has reached the interior northwest and north-central states and it will become quite a newsworthy event in coming days. This widespread and intensely cold Arctic air mass will drop southward to Texas by later Thursday and then shift to the east on Friday reaching the eastern seaboard by Friday night. Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set over the next few days; especially, in the central US from the Canadian border to the Mexican border.

At the leading edge of the Arctic air mass will be a powerful surface frontal system that will be very active as it crosses the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley from west-to-east. This Arctic front will produce blizzard conditions from the Plains all the way to the Appalachians as it treks west-to-east during the next few days. The powerful Arctic front is likely to arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor region on Friday afternoon and its passage could be quite dramatic. 

Winds will be very strong and potentially damaging for much of the day on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region both ahead of the Arctic front (S-SE direction) and behind it (W-NW direction)…not a good time for inflatable outdoor decorations. Temperatures will plunge as plunge as much as 25 or 30 degrees behind the front in just a couple of hours from the mild 50’s in the morning to the 20’s by day’s end. This sharp drop in temperatures can result in a “flash freeze” of any lingering wet spots on roadways from prior rainfall.

In addition, a burst of snow is possible immediately following the frontal passage which can even put down small accumulations in some spots as the Arctic air pours into the region in a still very unstable atmosphere. Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) will be very cold throughout the eastern US with some of the coldest weather conditions for these two days in many years. Single digits are on the table in suburbs along the I-95 corridor both on Saturday and Sunday (Christmas) mornings.

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8:15 AM ***Major Arctic outbreak plunges through central US…powerful Arctic front reaches Mid-Atlantic late Friday...damaging winds, quick freeze-up, even a snow squall…very cold Christmas weekend****

Paul Dorian

A major Arctic air outbreak will blast into the US this week. The core of the frigid air will drop southeastward on Monday from western Canada into Montana/North Dakota and then dive southward to Texas by later in the week. Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set in this outbreak all the way from the US/Canada border to the US/Mexico border. The Arctic air mass will then make another move on Friday to the northeast with a powerful surface frontal system at the leading edge of the advancing cold air mass.

The powerful Arctic front will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor likely late Friday and its passage could be quite dramatic. Damaging winds are possible late Friday, temperatures will drop sharply, and there can be a quick freeze-up or “flash-freeze” of any lingering wet spots on roadways.  In addition, snow showers or even heavier snow squalls can develop as the Arctic air pours into the region in a still very unstable atmosphere. Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) will be very cold throughout the eastern US with some of the coldest weather conditions for these two days in many years.

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12:45 PM | *****Record-breaking Arctic outbreak next week and a very cold looking Christmas weekend……major storm may precede the Arctic blast…significant snow next 24 hours interior Northeast US*****

Paul Dorian

A record-breaking Arctic air outbreak will blast into the US next week. This frigid air mass will spread south and east next week - no doubt breaking numerous low temperature records along the way - and reach the eastern states by week’s end. A very cold Christmas weekend is in store for much of the eastern half of the nation. In fact, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (Saturday, Sunday) could turn out to the coldest such in many years across much of the eastern half of the nation. With respect to snow chances, there may very well be a major storm system that forms on the leading edge of the Arctic blast at the end of next week in the eastern US which raises hope for a white Christmas in many locations.

Meanwhile, in the short-term, the major storm that has pounded much of the country in recent days with blizzard conditions in northern areas and severe weather in southern states is now impacting the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.  Rain will be the dominate precipitation type from here on out in the immediate I-95 corridor to go along with increasingly strong easterly winds. Significant snow is on the table for upstate PA, upstate NY, and the interior part of New England with some spots likely to receive more than a foot. Following this storm, much of the nation will experience colder-than-normal conditions this weekend with virtually coast-to-coast below-normal temperatures.

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1:00 PM | ****An icy mess early tomorrow in the DC-to-Philly corridor; especially, N/W suburbs…plain rain later along I-95 and some will be heavy…major Arctic outbreak into the US later next week****

Paul Dorian

A powerful storm that has caused problems in much of the nation in recent days will impact the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tonight into early Friday. Heavy snow associated with this impactful storm system fell this past weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California and southern Cascades. Significant snow then fell from Monday into Tuesday across the northern Rockies and Northern Plains and today’s blizzard conditions will extend east to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, in the warm sector of this large-scale storm system, severe weather including isolated tornadoes broke out yesterday from Texas/Oklahoma to Louisiana and the threat zone today will shift slightly to the east to include Mississippi and Alabama.

By late tonight, precipitation will break out in the Mid-Atlantic and an icy mess is on the table for early Thursday from DC-to-Philly; especially, in the northern and western suburbs of those cities. Increasingly strong easterly winds will pump in slightly milder maritime air later tomorrow bringing about a transition to plain rain and some of it will become heavy at times into the nighttime hours to go along with those strong winds. 

Looking ahead, a major Arctic air outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the frigid air mass will likely last stick around right through the Christmas weekend in much of the central and eastern US.  Arctic cold has gripped Europe for the past several days and this is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold weather pattern will remain quite active as well next week increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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2:00 PM | ***Blizzard/severe weather today…an icy mess in parts of I-95 corridor early Thursday…significant snows interior Mid-Atl./NE US…widespread Arctic outbreak in US later next week***

Paul Dorian

A major storm system continues to wreak havoc across the nation today with blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains and severe weather in the south-central US.  This same system dumped 6 feet of snow over the weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California. As this initial storm system grinds to a halt over the Upper Midwest later this week, a secondary storm will form near the eastern seaboard.  This system will bring significant snows to interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Thursday into Friday while the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is likely to experience a wintry mix at the onset of the event followed by heavy (plain) rain and strong winds. 

Looking ahead, an Arctic outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the biting cold will likely last right through Christmas weekend in the central and eastern states.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia which is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active later next week with storm chances increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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1:00 PM | ***Wintry mix at onset of late week storm system in Mid-Atlantic region…very cold pattern now across much of Europe/Asia…sets up across US later next week…active pattern continues***

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern has become quite active and the latest storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation during the next few days.  In fact, this system has already contributed to several feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades out west and blizzard conditions will develop on Tuesday across the northern Rocky Mountain states. By tomorrow night and Wednesday, this storm system will bring blizzard conditions to the and Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 

At the same time, the warm sector of this storm will likely feature some severe weather from later tomorrow into Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.  On Thursday, the precipitation field from this impactful storm system will reach the Mid-Atlantic region and the onset is likely to feature a wintry mix - even into the I-95 corridor before an eventual changeover to plain rain.

Looking ahead, a very cold pattern is destined to develop across the central and eastern US later next week.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia – often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active as well increasing the chances for a White Christmas in much of the northern US.

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2:00 PM (Fri.) | ****Rain/snow in Mid-Atl. on Sunday…mid-week Northern Plains blizzard, MS/TN Valley severe weather threat...wintry mix possible in Mid-Atl. Thurs/Fri...…cross-polar flow****

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern across the nation will be quite active from later this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats. One low pressure system will form over the Midwest on Saturday and then its precipitation shield will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday. Enough cold air will be around for snow on Sunday in much of the northern Mid-Atlantic with accumulations of up to a few inches likely in some interior and higher elevation locations. Another storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation next week with a possible severe weather outbreak late Tuesday/Tuesday night in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and blizzard conditions across the Northern Plains. This system and its precipitation field likely reaches the eastern states later next week and frozen precipitation will likely be in the mix: especially, if re-development of a surface low takes place near the east coast which could make for more of a serious winter storm threat in the Mid-Atlantic. The evolving pattern should feature more sustained cold air in the eastern states following that mid-to-late week storm system and “cross-polar flow” later this month will assure some very cold air masses reaching into North America.

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