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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

12:00 PM | ***Nationwide colder-than-normal conditions on the table by late next week...active pattern to bring multiple rain/snow threats to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

Paul Dorian

While the western US may experience an extended quieter weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US.  The break in the action in the western US will be due to the development of an upper-level ridge of high pressure that will ultimately extend from the eastern Pacific Ocean northward into Alaska.  In response to this ridge, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada by later next week. The combination of the eastern Pacific-to-Alaska ridge and the trough over the central US/Canada will result in upper-level winds that can easily transport cold air masses from northern Canada into the US. In fact, signs point to widespread colder-than-normal conditions across most the nation by late next week. Nationwide colder-than-normal weather in late January is quite impressive considering this is when climatological averages are close to their lowest levels of the year.

Meanwhile, the southwestern Atlantic Ocean will feature a ridge of high pressure in coming days that will intensify at times and the corridor region between the upper-level low (cold) over the central states and the Atlantic Ocean ridge (warm) will become a “battle zone” region with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Accumulating snow has been virtually non-existent so far this winter season in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but this active pattern will at least be able to raise hope for snow lovers in that part of the country with a couple of storm systems next week.

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1:15 PM | ***Active pattern to end shortly in California…active pattern to continue in the central and eastern US***

Paul Dorian

Another storm will impact California later Wednesday, but this system looks like it will be the last in a series of storms to roll off the Pacific Ocean and into the Golden State. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific Ocean in coming days and ultimately expand northward into Alaska.  This ridge will act as a “protective barrier” to oceanic storms resulting in welcome relief to the waterlogged state.

While the western US may experience a quieter overall weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US.  In a reaction to the developing ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada. In addition, a ridge of high pressure will intensify over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in coming days. The corridor region between the upper-level low over the central states and the ridge over the SW Atlantic will become a “battle zone” region likely with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Snow has been virtually non-existent so far this season in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC; however, I do believe that the chances will likely increase markedly next week and beyond given the large-scale pattern change that is expected across North America.

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11:45 AM | ***Western Atlantic storm…snow/ice eastern New England…California storms to wind down…large-scale pattern change unfolds across North America***

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern continues across the nation on Monday with three different storm systems impacting the country.  One storm has developed an “eye-like” feature over the western Atlantic Ocean and it is contributing to snow and ice today across much of eastern New England.  A second system now over the middle of the country is generating rain on its warm side and accumulating snow in the cold sector.  Meanwhile, California is getting pounded once again by a strong storm system and a weaker one is likely at mid-week. However, welcome relief is likely beyond that time as a large-scale pattern change unfolds across North America.

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2:15 PM | ***California pounding continues, but an upcoming large-scale pattern change suggests an end is in sight…ramifications for the eastern half of the nation as well***

Paul Dorian

The onslaught of Pacific Ocean storms into California will continue for the next 7-to-10 days with additional “off-the-chart” rainfall and snowfall amounts for the state.  A powerful storm continues to affect the Golden State today and another strong storm is likely to arrive this weekend.  Looking ahead, a large-scale pattern change looks likely in about ten days across North America featuring a building ridge of high pressure from Alaska to the west coast of the US.  This change is likely to bring an end to the stormy pattern in California and it may very well have important ramifications across the eastern half of the nation.

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2:30 PM | ***Onslaught in California continues with additional storms next several days…a look at upcoming threats in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

Paul Dorian

The onslaught of Pacific Ocean storms into California will continue for at least the next 7-to-10 days with “off-the-chart” rainfall and snowfall amounts. After slamming into California, these storms have traveled across the country making for an overall active weather pattern across much of the US. In some cases, the impact has been large such as with the severe weather outbreak earlier this week in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and in other cases, systems have weakened considerably by the time they have reached the eastern states.  We’ll examine upcoming threats in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with small snow accumulations possible as early as Sunday night and perhaps the greatest chance for a strong storm system coming in the period of January 13-15th.

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2:15 PM | ***Very active weather pattern across the nation includes a severe weather outbreak today in the Lower MS Valley/TN Valley and relentless pounding for California with Pacific Ocean storms***

Paul Dorian

A very active weather pattern continues across the nation as we begin the new year and it includes a severe weather outbreak today across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley. In addition, the relentless pounding in California by ocean storm-after-storm will continue for at least the next week-to-ten days with excessive rainfall, damaging winds and incredible snowfall amounts in higher-elevation Sierra Nevada Mountains.   

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10:00 AM | ****Buckle up…wild and crazy weather next 36 hours in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US****

Paul Dorian

Buckle up…the next 36 hours or so in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will feature some wild and crazy weather to include the following:

-heavy rain including thunderstorms

-localized flash flooding

-a surge in temperatures to the 50’s

-extreme plunge in temperatures to the single digits

-flash-freeze

-a burst of snow with small accumulations

-powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts

All of this weather can take place between about noon today and midnight tomorrow night headlined by a soaking rain event into early Friday and then the arrival of an intensely cold Arctic air mass later Friday morning.

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2:20 PM | ****Arctic air mass drops south to Texas then shifts east…reaches I-95 corridor late morning/mid-day on Friday...plunging temperatures, damaging winds, flash freeze, burst of snow****

Paul Dorian

The core of an intensely cold Arctic air mass is now getting ready to plunge southward to Texas by later tomorrow and then it’ll shift to the eastern states on Friday.  Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set over the next couple of days as this air mass makes its way across the nation. Blizzard conditions will accompany this advancing Arctic air outbreak over much of the eastern half of the country with the Great Lakes region likely to experience some of the worst weather with an extended period of extreme conditions from Friday into late weekend. 

The powerful Arctic frontal system that represents the leading edge of this intensely cold air mass will reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor during the late morning/mid-day on Friday.  Temperatures will drop dramatically in the wake of the frontal passage some 30+ degrees in a short period of time. Any wet spots on roadways from prior rainfall could freeze-up in a hurry.  There will be very strong wind gusts on Friday and a burst of snow is likely immediately behind the frontal passage that can produce a quick coating to an inch or two.  A frigid weekend will follow with Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) the coldest in many years across much of the eastern half of the nation. Single digits are likely in many spots along the I-95 corridor both on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

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2:00 PM | ****Arctic air mass drops south to Texas…Arctic front reaches I-95 corridor mid-day/afternoon on Friday...plunging temperatures, damaging winds, quick freeze, even a burst of snow****

Paul Dorian

The core of an intensely cold Arctic air mass is now penetrating the northwest and north-central parts of the nation, and it will drop southward towards Texas during the next 48 hours. After that, the Arctic air mass will shift to the east and reach the eastern seaboard by late Friday.  Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set over the next few days; especially, in the central US from the Canadian border to the Mexican border. Blizzard conditions will accompany this advancing Arctic air outbreak during the next few days over many sections of the country with the Great Lakes region likely to experience some of the worst with an extended period of extreme conditions from Friday into much of the upcoming weekend. 

The strong Arctic frontal system that represents the leading edge of this intensely cold air mass will likely reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor during the mid-day and afternoon hours on Friday.  The passage of the powerful Arctic front will not go unnoticed.  On the table will be plunging temperatures on the order of 25 or 30 degrees in a short period of time, powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts, a possible “flash-freeze”, and even a burst of snow that can put down a quick small accumulation of a coating to an inch or two  A frigid weekend will follow with Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) the coldest in many years in much of the eastern half of the nation. Single digits are certainly a possibility along the I-95 corridor both on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

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1:00 PM | ****Major Arctic outbreak reaches northern US…powerful Arctic front reaches I-95 corridor Friday afternoon...damaging winds, "flash-freeze", even a burst of snow…frigid Christmas weekend****

Paul Dorian

A major Arctic air outbreak has reached the interior northwest and north-central states and it will become quite a newsworthy event in coming days. This widespread and intensely cold Arctic air mass will drop southward to Texas by later Thursday and then shift to the east on Friday reaching the eastern seaboard by Friday night. Numerous low temperature records are likely to be set over the next few days; especially, in the central US from the Canadian border to the Mexican border.

At the leading edge of the Arctic air mass will be a powerful surface frontal system that will be very active as it crosses the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley from west-to-east. This Arctic front will produce blizzard conditions from the Plains all the way to the Appalachians as it treks west-to-east during the next few days. The powerful Arctic front is likely to arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor region on Friday afternoon and its passage could be quite dramatic. 

Winds will be very strong and potentially damaging for much of the day on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region both ahead of the Arctic front (S-SE direction) and behind it (W-NW direction)…not a good time for inflatable outdoor decorations. Temperatures will plunge as plunge as much as 25 or 30 degrees behind the front in just a couple of hours from the mild 50’s in the morning to the 20’s by day’s end. This sharp drop in temperatures can result in a “flash freeze” of any lingering wet spots on roadways from prior rainfall.

In addition, a burst of snow is possible immediately following the frontal passage which can even put down small accumulations in some spots as the Arctic air pours into the region in a still very unstable atmosphere. Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) will be very cold throughout the eastern US with some of the coldest weather conditions for these two days in many years. Single digits are on the table in suburbs along the I-95 corridor both on Saturday and Sunday (Christmas) mornings.

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