Punxsutawney Phil has made his annual prediction and has declared “six more weeks of winter” and I tend to agree with my fellow Pennsylvania prognosticator. There are processes unfolding in the upper part of the atmosphere over the polar region of the northern hemisphere that suggest there may very well be additional cold air outbreaks for much of the nation as we head through February and into March. In fact, a brutally cold air mass is headed to the Northeast US for Friday into Saturday with single digits on the table in places like New York City and Philly.
One part of the country that may not be vulnerable to cold air outbreaks in coming weeks is the Southeast US and, in particular, the state of Florida where a persistent upper-level ridge may keep it warm right into spring training season. In addition to the prospects for more cold, the overall weather pattern should remain quite active as well across the nation with numerous rain/snow/ice events on the way. Even the state of California - which has experienced a break in the action for the past ten days or so - will see a stormier pattern return to the region in early February; especially, the northern half.
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A significant winter storm is developing today over Texas and this moisture-laden system will push northeastward over the next 24 hours bringing significant snowfall all the way from Texas to the Midwest. In the Mid-Atlantic region, snow is likely to break out on Wednesday morning in areas to the north of the PA/MD border and there can be some minor accumulations before a changeover to rain later today as milder air surges northward along the coast.
Looking ahead, widespread colder-than-normal air is going to push into the northern and western US early next week and it’ll likely spread into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by late next week. Whether or not this change to colder-than-normal conditions is sustained in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US after next week will largely depend on the stubborn high pressure ridge aloft over the southwestern Atlantic/Southeast US. Elsewhere, there has been some amazing cold on the other side of the North Pole with the lowest temperature ever recorded in China on Monday and this follows some tremendous cold last week in Russia (Siberia). This frigid air is now spreading to the Korean Peninsula and on the way to Japan where there can also be some all-time low temperatures.
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As one storm continues to impact the Mid-Atlantic region with lingering rain and snow, the seeds for the next system are rolling through the southwestern states in the form of a vigorous upper-level low. This feature will drift into Texas on Tuesday and help generate surface low pressure and abundant moisture will feed into the system from the Gulf of Mexico. On Wednesday, this surface low pressure system will push northeastward with its large moisture field advancing to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Another key player in the upcoming mid-week event will be strong high pressure that forms over southeastern Canada. This system will anchor an air mass that will be cold enough for widespread accumulating snow across the Midwest, interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. There is likely to even be some accumulating snow at the onset in portions of the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before the precipitation ultimately changes to plain rain.
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Stratospheric temperatures have risen noticeably during the past couple of weeks in parts of the polar region in the Northern Hemisphere and indications are there will be changes of location of the polar vortex 10-15 days out. In addition, stratospheric warming looks like it could become centered right near or over the North Pole by the time we get into the early part of February. A stratospheric warming event such as this being forecasted could very well result in the displacement of cold air masses from the high latitudes into the middle latitudes sometime later in February.
In the short term, two storm systems are on the way for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the early and middle parts of next week. As has been the case in January, sufficient cold air for the generation of accumulating snow in the immediate I-95 corridor will be a struggle with both of these upcoming storms. Having said that, it looks like a close call in terms of at least some snow and/or ice in the I-95 corridor during either of these storms and any small change in the overall pattern can make an important difference. Odds do favor accumulating snow in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during each of these storms next week.
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While the western US may experience an extended quieter weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US. The break in the action in the western US will be due to the development of an upper-level ridge of high pressure that will ultimately extend from the eastern Pacific Ocean northward into Alaska. In response to this ridge, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada by later next week. The combination of the eastern Pacific-to-Alaska ridge and the trough over the central US/Canada will result in upper-level winds that can easily transport cold air masses from northern Canada into the US. In fact, signs point to widespread colder-than-normal conditions across most the nation by late next week. Nationwide colder-than-normal weather in late January is quite impressive considering this is when climatological averages are close to their lowest levels of the year.
Meanwhile, the southwestern Atlantic Ocean will feature a ridge of high pressure in coming days that will intensify at times and the corridor region between the upper-level low (cold) over the central states and the Atlantic Ocean ridge (warm) will become a “battle zone” region with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Accumulating snow has been virtually non-existent so far this winter season in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but this active pattern will at least be able to raise hope for snow lovers in that part of the country with a couple of storm systems next week.
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Another storm will impact California later Wednesday, but this system looks like it will be the last in a series of storms to roll off the Pacific Ocean and into the Golden State. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific Ocean in coming days and ultimately expand northward into Alaska. This ridge will act as a “protective barrier” to oceanic storms resulting in welcome relief to the waterlogged state.
While the western US may experience a quieter overall weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US. In a reaction to the developing ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada. In addition, a ridge of high pressure will intensify over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in coming days. The corridor region between the upper-level low over the central states and the ridge over the SW Atlantic will become a “battle zone” region likely with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Snow has been virtually non-existent so far this season in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC; however, I do believe that the chances will likely increase markedly next week and beyond given the large-scale pattern change that is expected across North America.
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An active weather pattern continues across the nation on Monday with three different storm systems impacting the country. One storm has developed an “eye-like” feature over the western Atlantic Ocean and it is contributing to snow and ice today across much of eastern New England. A second system now over the middle of the country is generating rain on its warm side and accumulating snow in the cold sector. Meanwhile, California is getting pounded once again by a strong storm system and a weaker one is likely at mid-week. However, welcome relief is likely beyond that time as a large-scale pattern change unfolds across North America.
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The onslaught of Pacific Ocean storms into California will continue for the next 7-to-10 days with additional “off-the-chart” rainfall and snowfall amounts for the state. A powerful storm continues to affect the Golden State today and another strong storm is likely to arrive this weekend. Looking ahead, a large-scale pattern change looks likely in about ten days across North America featuring a building ridge of high pressure from Alaska to the west coast of the US. This change is likely to bring an end to the stormy pattern in California and it may very well have important ramifications across the eastern half of the nation.
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The onslaught of Pacific Ocean storms into California will continue for at least the next 7-to-10 days with “off-the-chart” rainfall and snowfall amounts. After slamming into California, these storms have traveled across the country making for an overall active weather pattern across much of the US. In some cases, the impact has been large such as with the severe weather outbreak earlier this week in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and in other cases, systems have weakened considerably by the time they have reached the eastern states. We’ll examine upcoming threats in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with small snow accumulations possible as early as Sunday night and perhaps the greatest chance for a strong storm system coming in the period of January 13-15th.
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A very active weather pattern continues across the nation as we begin the new year and it includes a severe weather outbreak today across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley. In addition, the relentless pounding in California by ocean storm-after-storm will continue for at least the next week-to-ten days with excessive rainfall, damaging winds and incredible snowfall amounts in higher-elevation Sierra Nevada Mountains.
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