The country is sharply divided today in terms of temperatures with record-breaking warmth in the East and bitter cold in much of the western half of the nation. In addition to the cold, accumulating snow is falling in a swath from the Upper Midwest to northern New England from a storm system that has impacted a large part of the nation in recent days. Snow is also falling across many western states and blizzard warnings have been posted in of all places the southern part of California. In fact, for the first time ever, blizzard warnings have been issued by the San Diego office of NOAA’s National Weather Service for the San Bernardino Mountains.
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The overall weather pattern across the eastern US has been active in recent weeks and there is reason to believe it’ll remain quite energetic over the next couple of weeks. In fact, the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US can become quite a “battle zone” region with the development in coming days of high-latitude blocking across Greenland/Northeastern Canada at the same time high pressure ridging persists over the Southeast US. There will be times when the SE US ridge shows its strength with warm air surging northward into the Mid-Atlantic region and other times in which the high-latitude blocking flexes its muscle resulting in cold air dropping southward from Canada into the northeastern part of the US.
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An active weather pattern continues across the central and eastern US with one system producing accumulating snow today in the Upper Midwest and then a second system will produce rain, ice, and snow in parts of the eastern US this weekend. One upper-level wave of energy heads to the Great Lakes region today and a second one will dive to the Deep South over the next couple of days. Low pressure is going to form near the Southeast US coastline later Saturday and it will then likely grind its way to the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline by later Sunday. While there will not be any kind of real cold air in place, the chance for significant accumulating snow this weekend is certainly there for the higher elevation locations of the Appalachian Mountains where over a foot can fall.
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An active weather pattern continues across the nation with severe weather a threat later today in the south-central US/Lower Mississippi Valley and accumulating snow on the table later tomorrow across the Upper Midwest. Another system will dive to the southeast over the next few days and reach the southeastern states by early this weekend. Low pressure is likely to form near the Southeast US coastline on Saturday and it can grind its way far enough to the north to impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Super Bowl Sunday. While there will not be any kind of real cold air mass in place, the chance for snow or sleet is on the table in higher elevation locations of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region and potentially in other “dynamically cooled” regions.
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Punxsutawney Phil has made his annual prediction and has declared “six more weeks of winter” and I tend to agree with my fellow Pennsylvania prognosticator. There are processes unfolding in the upper part of the atmosphere over the polar region of the northern hemisphere that suggest there may very well be additional cold air outbreaks for much of the nation as we head through February and into March. In fact, a brutally cold air mass is headed to the Northeast US for Friday into Saturday with single digits on the table in places like New York City and Philly.
One part of the country that may not be vulnerable to cold air outbreaks in coming weeks is the Southeast US and, in particular, the state of Florida where a persistent upper-level ridge may keep it warm right into spring training season. In addition to the prospects for more cold, the overall weather pattern should remain quite active as well across the nation with numerous rain/snow/ice events on the way. Even the state of California - which has experienced a break in the action for the past ten days or so - will see a stormier pattern return to the region in early February; especially, the northern half.
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A significant winter storm is developing today over Texas and this moisture-laden system will push northeastward over the next 24 hours bringing significant snowfall all the way from Texas to the Midwest. In the Mid-Atlantic region, snow is likely to break out on Wednesday morning in areas to the north of the PA/MD border and there can be some minor accumulations before a changeover to rain later today as milder air surges northward along the coast.
Looking ahead, widespread colder-than-normal air is going to push into the northern and western US early next week and it’ll likely spread into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by late next week. Whether or not this change to colder-than-normal conditions is sustained in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US after next week will largely depend on the stubborn high pressure ridge aloft over the southwestern Atlantic/Southeast US. Elsewhere, there has been some amazing cold on the other side of the North Pole with the lowest temperature ever recorded in China on Monday and this follows some tremendous cold last week in Russia (Siberia). This frigid air is now spreading to the Korean Peninsula and on the way to Japan where there can also be some all-time low temperatures.
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As one storm continues to impact the Mid-Atlantic region with lingering rain and snow, the seeds for the next system are rolling through the southwestern states in the form of a vigorous upper-level low. This feature will drift into Texas on Tuesday and help generate surface low pressure and abundant moisture will feed into the system from the Gulf of Mexico. On Wednesday, this surface low pressure system will push northeastward with its large moisture field advancing to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Another key player in the upcoming mid-week event will be strong high pressure that forms over southeastern Canada. This system will anchor an air mass that will be cold enough for widespread accumulating snow across the Midwest, interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. There is likely to even be some accumulating snow at the onset in portions of the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before the precipitation ultimately changes to plain rain.
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Stratospheric temperatures have risen noticeably during the past couple of weeks in parts of the polar region in the Northern Hemisphere and indications are there will be changes of location of the polar vortex 10-15 days out. In addition, stratospheric warming looks like it could become centered right near or over the North Pole by the time we get into the early part of February. A stratospheric warming event such as this being forecasted could very well result in the displacement of cold air masses from the high latitudes into the middle latitudes sometime later in February.
In the short term, two storm systems are on the way for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the early and middle parts of next week. As has been the case in January, sufficient cold air for the generation of accumulating snow in the immediate I-95 corridor will be a struggle with both of these upcoming storms. Having said that, it looks like a close call in terms of at least some snow and/or ice in the I-95 corridor during either of these storms and any small change in the overall pattern can make an important difference. Odds do favor accumulating snow in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during each of these storms next week.
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While the western US may experience an extended quieter weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US. The break in the action in the western US will be due to the development of an upper-level ridge of high pressure that will ultimately extend from the eastern Pacific Ocean northward into Alaska. In response to this ridge, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada by later next week. The combination of the eastern Pacific-to-Alaska ridge and the trough over the central US/Canada will result in upper-level winds that can easily transport cold air masses from northern Canada into the US. In fact, signs point to widespread colder-than-normal conditions across most the nation by late next week. Nationwide colder-than-normal weather in late January is quite impressive considering this is when climatological averages are close to their lowest levels of the year.
Meanwhile, the southwestern Atlantic Ocean will feature a ridge of high pressure in coming days that will intensify at times and the corridor region between the upper-level low (cold) over the central states and the Atlantic Ocean ridge (warm) will become a “battle zone” region with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Accumulating snow has been virtually non-existent so far this winter season in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but this active pattern will at least be able to raise hope for snow lovers in that part of the country with a couple of storm systems next week.
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Another storm will impact California later Wednesday, but this system looks like it will be the last in a series of storms to roll off the Pacific Ocean and into the Golden State. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific Ocean in coming days and ultimately expand northward into Alaska. This ridge will act as a “protective barrier” to oceanic storms resulting in welcome relief to the waterlogged state.
While the western US may experience a quieter overall weather pattern beginning later this week, it’ll remain quite active across the central and eastern US. In a reaction to the developing ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean, an upper-level trough of low pressure will form over the central US and Canada. In addition, a ridge of high pressure will intensify over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in coming days. The corridor region between the upper-level low over the central states and the ridge over the SW Atlantic will become a “battle zone” region likely with multiple storms riding through it from southwest-to-northeast. Snow has been virtually non-existent so far this season in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC; however, I do believe that the chances will likely increase markedly next week and beyond given the large-scale pattern change that is expected across North America.
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