Spring has officially sprung and there is some quite mild weather expected during the next couple of days in much of the eastern half of the nation. There are signs, however, that point to additional cold air outbreaks into at least the first week of April from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. The overall weather pattern across North America still features some high-latitude blocking over northern Canada and Greenland and this, in turn, is allowing for the transport of colder-than-normal air masses on occasion into the northern US from Canada. One of the consequences of additional cold air outbreaks is the high likelihood for additional accumulating snow events across the northern states and also the threat for severe weather outbreaks in the southern US. This pattern of normal to below-normal temperatures has been pretty commonplace during the last ten years in the months of March and April in the region from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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It was thirty years ago that the so-called “Storm of the Century” pounded the eastern US all the way from Florida to Maine after what was a relatively quiet winter season of 1992-1993. In much the same manner, this winter season has been relatively quiet as well in much of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in terms of cold and snow. However, as was the case thirty years ago, it looks like there will be a late winter March storm that years from now could make this relatively mild winter much more of a memorable season…at least for many of those in the Northeast US.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite active across the nation during the next couple of weeks with most sections experiencing colder-than-normal conditions. In the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, there may be as many as three storms during the next week or so presenting chances of rain and snow. The first threat of rain and snow will come from Friday into Saturday, the second system from late Sunday into Tuesday and this could turn into a monster storm for the NE US, and the potential exists for a third storm around the end of next week. In all cases, the most favored areas for accumulating snow will be the usual interior, higher elevation locations, but even the I-95 corridor can get some accumulating snow; especially, to the north and west of the big cities. One interesting aspect about the first storm, it will likely feature an inverted trough extending from the low pressure center over the western Atlantic to the Mid-Atlantic coastline early Saturday and will undergo rapid intensification…both of which can lead to a last minute burst of heavier snow in such places as eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
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The overall weather pattern will remain active during the next several days in the Mid-Atlantic region with two upcoming chances of rain and snow. The first threat of rain and snow will come from Friday into Saturday and there will likely be a second chance from Sunday night into Monday. In both cases, the more favored areas for snow will the interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic; however, even parts of the I-95 corridor can see some accumulating snow. Both systems have to be closely monitored in coming days as, for example, rapid intensification and an “inverted trough” early Saturday morning can result in some last minute surprises.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite active during the next several days with storm threats possible in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US both at week’s end and again early next week. The overall weather pattern is also turning colder due in large part to significant high-latitude blocking that has developed over northern Canada/Greenland in response to recent stratospheric warming and to the likely upcoming disappearance of a stubborn ridge over the southern US.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite active in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several days with one quick-moving system late tonight and there can be additional threats both early this weekend and early next week. This initial system can generate snow or rain changing to snow from late tonight into early Tuesday across portions of upstate Pennsylvania and western New Jersey and some higher-elevation spots can receive as much as 3-6 inches by daybreak. The overall weather pattern is turning colder due in large part to significant high-latitude blocking that has developed over northern Canada/Greenland and to a disappearing stubborn ridge over the southern US.
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A very impactful storm system will slide out of the SW US later today and begin to intensify over the south-central states by later tonight. After slamming California and the southwestern states, this system will bring accumulating snow, excessive rain, and damaging ice to parts of the eastern half of the nation during the next couple of days. In addition, this system will contribute to a potential severe weather outbreak from later today into Friday across the south-central US.
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Strong low pressure now over the western US will impact much of the nation in coming days with significant snows, flooding rains, damaging ice, and even a severe weather outbreak. Heavy snow continues to fall today in the higher elevations of California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains and will intensify over the Rocky Mountains States from later today into Thursday. By later tomorrow, the strong surface low will slide into the south-central US and ingredients will likely come together for a severe weather outbreak across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from late tomorrow into Friday. After that, this major storm system will push towards the Great Lakes on Friday, grind to a halt as it becomes influenced by intensifying high-latitude blocking and transfer its energy to a secondary low pressure system that will form off the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result will be a significant snow event late in the week across parts of the Upper Midwest and Northeast US and ice can become a serious issue as well in some sections.
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As one storm begins to exit off the Northeast US coastline, another one is already impacting northern California with rain in the lower elevations and snows in the mountains. This system will become a major storm and impact much of the nation in coming days with significant snow, ice and rain all the way from California-to-New England. There is also the threat of a severe weather outbreak later in the week across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
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There was record warmth in parts of the East on Thursday including in the Mid-Atlantic region where, for example, Washington, D.C.’s Reagan National Airport (DCA) surged to 81 degrees breaking a record set in the late 1800’s. What a difference a day makes…temperatures at mid-day on Friday are in the 40’s in much of the Mid-Atlantic with very gusty NW winds following the early day passage of a strong cold front. The change in weather will become even more dramatic by Saturday as some snow shower activity is likely in the Mid-Atlantic region – including in some of those same areas that reached the 70’s and 80’s just twenty-four hours ago. Looking even farther ahead, accumulating snow and/or sleet is possible from later Monday into early Tuesday across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic including in the New York City metro region.
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