The active weather pattern experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region in recent weeks remains fully intact as we head towards the end of this week. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms passed through much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the overnight and early morning hours and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible from later today through the day on Thursday. Any one of these showers or thunderstorms during the next 24 hours can produce heavy rainfall in what is an already well saturated part of the country. The threat of heavy rain does not end with sunset on Thursday evening. In fact, perhaps the biggest threat of additional heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region will come on Thursday night as a potent system impacts the region.
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More than ten inches of rain has fallen during the past 30-days in virtually every state from Florida-to-Maine. These excessive rainfall amounts are quite impressive considering the fact that tropical moisture has not really been involved in the overall weather pattern other than perhaps across Florida earlier in the tropical season. In fact, the heart of the Atlantic Basin tropical season lies ahead beginning typically during the month of August and continuing into October with the climatological peak right around the middle of September. There is nothing yet on the horizon for the eastern US in terms of tropical activity; however, there is a concern that should a tropical system impact this region in coming weeks, the currently very well saturated grounds could set the stage for some flooding issues.
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Many parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US were hit by downpours this past weekend and during the first part of this week and another extended period of unsettled weather is about to begin in these same areas. Similar to this last stretch, this upcoming unsettled weather period will include the chance of heavy downpours, localized flooding and strong-to-severe thunderstorms...something not particularly welcomed in many parts of the northeastern quadrant of the nation.
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The combination of high low-level moisture content and a couple of frontal systems will keep the atmosphere very unstable in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days. Any shower or thunderstorm that develops from later today into Saturday can produce heavy rainfall amounts given the high moisture levels and the expected slow movement due to an overall weak wind field and little steering flow. A potent system is likely to drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic region and this next system is likely to extend the chances for heavy rainfall and bring about a chance for severe thunderstorms as well.
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The combination of an upper-level trough, high moisture content in the lower atmosphere, and a weak frontal boundary zone will be enough to result in very unstable atmospheric conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into early tonight enhancing the chance for severe thunderstorm activity. A somewhat similar setup will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, the 4th of July, with the greatest chance once again coming during the afternoon and early evening hours. Not all areas will get hit during this next 36 hours, but any thunderstorm that does form can contain torrential downpours, damaging wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado or two. The overall unsettled weather pattern that began in late June may relax a bit on Wednesday and Thursday; however, it should resume in full force by the end of the shortened work week and continue through the upcoming weekend.
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The atmosphere will quickly destabilize today in the Mid-Atlantic region raising the chance for severe thunderstorm activity later today and early tonight. Any thunderstorm can produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. Torrential rainfall can lead to flash flooding conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, in those areas hit hard by downpours this past weekend. The threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday and the overall wet weather pattern looks like it’ll resume at week’s end after a short-break and continue into the first half of next week.
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Lawns were turning brown and soil moisture was at very low levels earlier this month and during the month of May in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. There have been a couple of rain events in the past couple of weeks that have alleviated the dry conditions; especially, in areas to the north of the PA/MD border. The overall weather pattern is now evolving into one that will bring copious amounts of rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region in coming days and it may get to the point in which many will say “we’re now getting too much of a good thing”.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has come to life in recent days with two systems located in the tropical Atlantic. The front running system has reached named tropical storm status (“Bret”) and it could very well intensify into a hurricane during the next couple of days as it heads towards the eastern Caribbean Sea. Later in the week, however, a few factors are likely to come together to cause a weakening of this initial tropical system. A second system following closely behind Bret could reach named tropical storm status as well in coming days (would become “Cindy”) as it heads on a general westward track.
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Much-needed rainfall fell in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with 1-2 inches commonplace across eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and western New Jersey. The next several days will bring additional chances of rain to the area with the first threat coming on Wednesday as an upper-level low pressure system moves close by. As a result, the atmosphere will destabilize later tomorrow as colder air moves in aloft and an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms is quite likely. In fact, some of the thunderstorms that do form later tomorrow can become quite strong with brief downpours and small hail a possibility. Another batch of showers is possible on Friday as another upper-level low spins its way into the Mid-Atlantic region and yet another disturbance can raise the chances for rain in the Monday/Tuesday time frame.
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It is quite common to have a “Bermuda High” type of weather pattern in the eastern US this time of year with high pressure stationed over the western Atlantic and southwesterly flow of air pushing hot and humid air to the Mid-Atlantic region from the Gulf of Mexico. Our current weather pattern is about as opposite as you can get with a meandering upper-level low centered over Maine/Nova Scotia leading to persistent northwesterly flow in the lower part of the atmosphere. This type of wind flow is influencing the weather in multiple ways.
First, it is leading to quite comfortable temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region for the early part of June and, second, it is resulting in unusually low humidity levels. In addition, this persistent northwesterly flow continues to bring smoke into the area from wildfires that developed several days ago in Quebec, Canada. In fact, the most dense smoke of all in this current outbreak may push into New York City, Pennsylvania and New Jersey this afternoon and evening and the smell of smoke should become much more noticeable. In terms of rainfall, there were scattered late day showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and a couple of troughs can bring isolated showers/thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week. Looking ahead, there is a glimmer of hope for a more appreciable rainfall early next week with another upper-level low likely to spin into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Great Lakes.
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