Two big weather stories over the next several days will include a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico “tropical hand-off” and yet another weekend rain event is in the cards for the Mid-Atlantic region. Hurricane Lidia will head into western Mexico later today and some of its tropical moisture will make it across Mexico at mid-week giving a boost to a tropical wave sitting over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure with a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico tropical connection will form by later tomorrow over the western Gulf and then spread some heavy rainfall across the northern Gulf/Southeast US as it takes a path to the east-to-northeast.
Meanwhile, a deepening upper-level low pressure system will cross the nation from west-to-east in coming days and set off the development of surface low pressure over the Ohio valley by week’s end. This primary or initial low will then give way to a secondary low pressure system likely to form early this weekend along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result will continue a recent trend in the Mid-Atlantic region with some weekend rain and very cool conditions featuring a persistent onshore flow of air.
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Tropical systems in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans may impact the weather across the US in coming days in somewhat unusual manners. Tropical Storm Philippe has been meandering over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean recently and it will soon accelerate to the north and impact Maine/Nova Scotia with rain and wind later this weekend. After that, the remnants of TS Philippe will get “absorbed” into an incoming upper-level trough over the southeastern part of Canada. This influx of tropical moisture into the upper-level trough will act to energize the system and it will become a big contributor to a temperature pattern change in the eastern states with much cooler weather from this weekend and well into next week. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific Ocean is now featuring multiple tropical systems and one of these is likely hit the west coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. After that, this tropical system that originated in the Pacific Ocean is likely to cross over Mexico and help to spawn tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico which potentially can result in rain across the southeastern states.
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Temperatures are some 10+ degrees above-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but big changes are on the way this weekend and the change to noticeably cooler conditions may not be just an “in-and-out” affair. Strong upper-level ridging across the eastern US and Canada will give way to an upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend that will tend to hang around through much of October ensuring additional cold air outbreaks. This initial blast of much cooler air into the east will follow an early weekend strong cold frontal passage and Sunday promises to be the coolest day so far this fall season in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In addition to the cool down, winds will become an important factor by Sunday as the overall pressure gradient tightens across the northeastern states as Tropical Storm Philippe merges with the initial incoming upper-level trough system.
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There is no tropical activity of any immediate concern across the nation, but the overall weather pattern is having a pretty big impact on three different sections of the US. An active jet stream across the northern Pacific is bringing multiple storms to the Pacific NW that will generate lots of rain for lower elevations and some early season snowfall for the higher elevation locations. A stalled-out frontal boundary zone will combine with an abundance of low-level moisture to bring significant rainfall amounts to Florida in coming days. Meanwhile, in the Mid-Atlantic region, it’s the same old song with damp, breezy and unusually cool conditions that began during the weekend with the approach and passage of Tropical Storm Ophelia.
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A storm is beginning to take shape today over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean where sea surface temperatures remain at unusually warm levels as high as 30 degrees (Celsius). This developing system will take on tropical characteristics and move in a general north-to-northwest direction over the next couple of days. Later in the weekend, this storm is likely to slow down some as it makes a turn from a northerly direction to northeast. Whether or not it becomes a named tropical storm by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (and there is an outside chance of it reaching category 1 hurricane status), this system will be quite impactful in terms of rain, wind and surf all the way from the Carolinas to southern New England.
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A storm threat continues for the late week/weekend near and along the east coast with the potential of heavy rain and strong onshore winds. Low pressure will form just off the Southeast US coastline over very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic and likely take on “tropical” characteristics. Whether or not this system becomes classified as “tropical” remains to be seen; however, the end result could be the same with heavy rain on the table and persistent strong onshore winds; especially, for coastal sections from the Carolinas to southern New England.
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A storm threat exists for the weekend near or along the east coast with the potential of a widespread soaking rain event featuring persistent and strong onshore winds. Low pressure looks like it will form late this week just off the Southeast US coastline over very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic and likely take on “tropical” characteristics. With high pressure expected to build to its north and east, this low pressure system should push northward right through the eastern states. Whether or not this system becomes classified as “tropical” remains to be seen; however, the end result could be the same with heavy rain and strong winds on the table.
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Hurricane Lee has weakened in recent hours and is now classified as a category 1 “minimal” hurricane as it heads on a northerly track. It is likely to be downgraded to tropical storm status (or “post-tropical”) by the weekend as it moves over colder waters of the NW Atlantic and reaches higher latitudes near coastal Maine/Atlantic Canada. However, Hurricane Lee remains a large storm and its pressure gradient field will remain intense likely resulting in an impact that will be felt across eastern New England and Atlantic Canada with powerful winds and heavy rainfall. Hurricane-force winds are on the table along coastal Maine and Atlantic Canada with tropical storm force winds likely along coastal Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. The expected track of Hurricane Lee will place the storm right near or over the Bay of Fundy by later Saturday – a bay known for its extremely high tides and tremendous tidal variations.
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Hurricane Lee remains as a “major” category 3 system and has begun its turn to the north as it becomes increasingly influenced by an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This turn to the north will come with gradually increasing forward speed and will bring Hurricane Lee to the west of Bermuda on Thursday where there will be tropical storm conditions. As an upper-level ridge intensifies over the NW Atlantic late in the week, Hurricane Lee may actually take a turn slightly to the left which will bring it close to southeastern New England. Hurricane Lee is then likely to become “post-tropical” as it potentially reaches coastal Maine/New Brunswick later in the weekend. Despite movement over colder waters before its landfall and a likely slight weakening in central pressure, the pressure gradient will remain intense between this powerful storm system and intensifying high pressure to the north. As a result, a significant impact is possible this weekend from eastern New England to Atlantic Canada (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia) with torrential rains and hurricane-force winds on the table.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around this time of year and it is certainly living up to its billing. Lee remains a category 3 “major’ hurricane today and continues to move slowly on a west-northwest track over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It will soon take a turn to the north as it becomes increasingly influenced by an upper-level trough that will build over the eastern states. Lee will likely have a significant impact on eastern New England this weekend with heavy rains and strong winds as it pushes towards Maine or Nova Scotia as a tropical storm or a “post-tropical” system. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Margot has reached hurricane status; however, its future looks rather harmless as it likely weakens on its northward trek to a position over the Northern Atlantic. Another tropical system is located over the eastern Atlantic and it should intensify in coming days as it pushes over some very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic.
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