The weekend just past in the Mid-Atlantic region was quite comfortable with plenty of sunshine on both days and the remainder of the week ahead looks quite comfortable as well for the middle of August. In fact, the rest of August may very well turn out to be quite comfortable across the Mid-Atlantic region with no signs of sustained extreme heat pretty much anywhere in the eastern half of the nation.
While the weather is quiet in the Mid-Atlantic region for much of this week, the tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin is active and it is likely to stay quite active during the remainder of August. A strong tropical wave that is currently closing in on the Leeward Islands is very likely to become a named tropical storm (Ernesto) during the next 24 hours and then it’ll impact Puerto Rico by mid-week – perhaps as a category 1 hurricane – and then likely move towards the island of Bermuda as an even stronger hurricane. A second tropical wave follows close behind and is currently located over the central tropical Atlantic and a third can be seen on satellite imagery near the west coast of Africa.
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Tropical Storm Debby made a second landfall earlier today about 25 miles to the northeast of Charleston, South Carolina and has begun the normal weakening phase as it pushes farther inland. Despite the weakening, the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to pound away today at the Carolinas with additional heavy rainfall as copious amounts of tropical moisture still feed into the system from the southwestern Atlantic. Some spots in South Carolina can end up with 25 inches of rain when all is said and done and up to 15 inches in likely in portions of North Carolina.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, outer bands have already produced occasional showers and the main impact will come from late today into Friday evening as the tropical depression passes over the front range of the Appalachians. The impact in the I-95 corridor will include occasional heavy downpours, embedded thunderstorms, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes are even on the table. Scattered power outages are also on the table given the combination of saturated grounds and wind gusts potentially up to 45 mph or so. The heaviest rainfall during this upcoming event will likely come along the front range of the Appalachians (e.g., eastern West Virginia, western Virginia, central Pennsylvania) where southeasterly winds will be “lifted” by the increasing altitude.
Looking ahead, the “soon-to-come” acceleration of the tropical system will allow for a nice weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and the overall weather pattern looks quite nice from Saturday through the middle of next week all across the Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US (and it should be favorable for the Perseid meteor shower). One final note, there are signs that there may be another tropical threat to deal with in the eastern US by around the middle of the month.
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Tropical Storm Debby is out over the very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and it has strengthened some today with maximum sustained winds now at 60 mph. Tropical Storm Debby will make a second landfall by early tomorrow morning and then begin a turn to the north that should bring it’s remnants just to the west of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor on Friday afternoon. As such, there is the threat of some heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms, gusty winds in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Thursday through Friday night and isolated tornadoes are on the table. The tropical system will accelerate to the northeast by Saturday with improving conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and we’re setting up for a stretch of nice weather from Sunday through Tuesday all across the northeastern part of the nation.
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Tropical Storm Debby is about to move back out over the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean…just off the coast of South Carolina. This system will re-intensify some during the next 24 hours or so with a chance of getting back to category 1 hurricane status and then it’ll likely make a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina. Whether or not Debby returns to hurricane status, there will be extreme rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next couple of days centered on the state of South Carolina.
Farther north, much of the Mid-Atlantic region will experience very heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms from later today into early tomorrow due to a combination of tropical moisture feeding northward from Tropical Storm Debby and an incoming strong cold frontal system. The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will finally get kicked to north late in the week with heavy rainfall and potentially even tornadoes a threat in the entire Mid-Atlantic region on Friday/Friday night.
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Debby made landfall this morning in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast as a category 1 hurricane. While Debby has weakened to “tropical storm” status, it will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next few days as its northward progression is stymied by high pressure ridging building to its north. The remnants of Debby will then push off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline by mid-week and it can undergo some re-intensification over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic. In fact, there is the chance that Debby returns to category 1 hurricane status depending on its length of time over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By Wednesday night or early Thursday, Debby will likely make a second landfall perhaps over the northeastern coastline of South Carolina.
Farther north, tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the threat for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region as soon as late tomorrow as it interacts with an incoming cold frontal system. Following the frontal passage on Wednesday, it turns much cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week with afternoon highs generally confined to the 70’s in places like DC, Philly and New York City. There will also be a continuing threat of tropical rainfall later this week as the remnants of Debby finally kick out of the SE US by the end of the week and push to the north…several inches of rain are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic between now and the end of the upcoming weekend.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has been largely quiet during the past few weeks after the dissipation of Hurricane Beryl which reached category 5 status over the Caribbean Sea and then ultimately made landfall in Texas as a category 1 storm. There is now a strong tropical wave that is nearing Cuba and it may spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend as an intensifying storm. There are signs that at some point early next week the northward progression of this system may be stymied, and a stalling or even a “looping” storm track is on the table. This possibility could lead to some very heavy rainfall amounts in certain locations…a prospect to monitor closely next few days. In fact, we may be dealing with this tropical storm system as late as at the end of next week or weekend somewhere up along the eastern seaboard.
One of the contributing factors to what should be an active next couple of months in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is the strengthening of La Nina across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in that part of the world’s largest ocean have dropped quite sharply during the past week or so suggesting La Nina may indeed be an important (and favorable) factor for development and intensification of tropical storm systems in the Atlantic Basin during the second half of the tropical season.
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The current heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region likely reaches a peak today with some spots along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor reaching the 100 degree mark for afternoon highs. Temperatures will remain quite hot on Wednesday, but likely a few degrees lower than today due to more abundant cloud cover ahead of an incoming cold frontal system. Occasional showers and thunderstorms are likely from later today through tomorrow night. Any thunderstorm during this next 36 hours or so can reach severe levels producing torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and hail and, unfortunately, power outages are on the table. The passage of the cold front late Wednesday night will usher in a cooler air mass for Thursday and Friday and the overall weather pattern may not include any more in the way of extreme heat for much of the eastern half of the nation through the remainder of the month of July.
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Powerful storms rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late yesterday and last night and cleansed the atmosphere of the high heat and humidity…at least for a few days. One of the ingredients involved with yesterday’s unstable atmosphere was a cold frontal system that has edged off the east coast On Thursday morning; however, we are not done yet with this system. That cold front will stall out later today right along the east coast and copious amounts of tropical moisture will ride up along its boundary zone from tomorrow into Saturday leading to additional showers and thunderstorms around here and some of the rain will be heavy. The high heat of recent days has backed off for the next few days, but it will return in full force in the Mid-Atlantic region for the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday time period and 100 degree highs are on the table.
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Rainfall has been rather sporadic in much of the Mid-Atlantic region during the past couple of months with some spots getting drenched by small-scale thunderstorms and other areas staying largely rain-free. The end result of this weather pattern has been the browning of many lawns and the need for some soaking rainfall. The best chance in awhile for some heavy rainfall on a more widespread basis comes to the Mid-Atlantic region in the time period from later tomorrow into the upcoming weekend. The combination of tropical moisture associated with Beryl’s remains and a stalling frontal system along the coast will enhance this chance for heavy rainfall and, hopefully, there will be some improvement to area lawns.
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Hurricane Beryl is now classified as a category 4 storm and will impact Jamaica shortly with hurricane conditions as it continues to push across the Caribbean Sea in a west-northwest direction. On this path, Hurricane Beryl will slide across the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico on Friday and then push to a position out over the open warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The weakening of Beryl which began late yesterday will likely continue for the next couple of days as it bypasses Jamaica and then crosses land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. After that, Beryl may very well re-intensify this weekend and it likely shifts to a northwesterly direction which would put southeastern Texas on the table for a possible landfall by Sunday night/early Monday.
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