The ingredients are coming together for a severe weather outbreak later today and tonight across the middle part of the country and there can be a repeat performance early next week. In fact, next week may turn out to be quite active on a couple of fronts with severe weather a possibility across the nation’s heartland and potential tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea. Today’s severe weather outbreak does include the possibility of tornadoes across such states as Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri.
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Last winter was generally warmer-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region with below-normal snowfall and 2024 began with a rather strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, those warmer-than-normal water temperatures have since flipped to below-normal and this upcoming winter season is quite likely to feature weak La Nina (colder-than-normal) conditions. Typically, La Nina winters feature a more active polar jet stream that helps to transport cold air masses from northwestern Canada into the Northern Plains while, at the same time, much of the southern US often experiences warmer and drier conditions. La Nina winters are somewhat random in the Mid-Atlantic region with respect to temperatures and precipitation with some years featuring more snow than normal and others less.
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Since the middle of last week, two separate tropical systems attained tropical storm status adding to the year’s total number of named storms to 15 in the Atlantic Basin. Neither one of these most recent tropical storms, Nadine and Oscar, are a threat to the US mainland as the first one has already dissipated and the second is destined to push out over the open waters of the western Atlantic Ocean. There are signs, however, that tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin may be very well get boosted again as we push into the first half of November.
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October can be a dry month in the Northeast US with the usual overall cooling down of the atmosphere, but this one has been pretty ridiculous. While tropical moisture has inundated the Tennessee Valley/Appalachians and Southeast US during the past couple of weeks, nary a drop has fallen in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and there is not much reason for hope in the next week or so. Perhaps...just perhaps...there may be some decent rainfall here around the end of the month as a strong cold frontal system heads this way from central Canada.
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Last week, it was the northern lights and now - for another astronomical treat - a comet should be visible to the naked eye during the next week to ten days or so in the western sky after sunset. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS has now exited the sun’s glare having come closest to the sun in late September. It made its closest approach to Earth this past Saturday, October 11th, passing about 44 million miles away. It is now rising a little bit higher each night in the western sky and remaining visible for a little bit longer period; however, it is also going to lose some its brightness with each passing day.
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Hurricane Milton is a high-end category 4 storm system as of mid-morning as it closes in on the west-central Gulf coast of Florida. Some weakening is quite likely today as Hurricane Milton encounters increased vertical wind shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and some dry air intrusion on its western side. However, Hurricane Milton should make landfall later tonight somewhere near Tampa Bay as a “major” hurricane with a significant storm surge expected as high as 10-15 feet in some areas. After landfall, Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later tomorrow out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
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Hurricane Milton intensified rapidly on Monday reaching category 5 status with maximum sustained winds as high as 180 mph and a central pressure that dropped all the way down to 897 millibars (26.44 inches). There has been some weakening in the overnight hours and during the early hours of Tuesday with the latest measurements featuring maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (category 4) and the central pressure of Milton has risen more than 30 millibars since the low point on Monday of 929 millibars (27.43 inches). Hurricane Milton will gradually take a turn to the northeast during the next 12-24 hours and likely make a landfall on Wednesday night somewhere near the Tampa Bay region of Florida’s Gulf coast. After landfall, Hurricane Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later Thursday out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
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Hurricane Milton has intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is now classified as a strong category 4 “major” hurricane...just on the doorstep of a category 5 designation. Given the very favorable environmental conditions, Hurricane Milton is likely to reach category 5 status later today as it heads slowly to the east-southeast. Hurricane Milton is expected to turn to the northeast later tomorrow which would bring the system to Florida’s Gulf coast region by later Wednesday...likely right near or just to the north of Tampa Bay. There can be some weakening of Hurricane Milton in the hours before landfall due to some “late in the game” dry air intrusion; however, landfall as a “major” would still be quite possible during the PM hours on Wednesday. With a possible landfall near or just to the north of Tampa Bay, storm surge in the bay region would be significant...perhaps as high 8-12 feet. After landfall, Hurricane Milton is likely to cross over the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane, and then exit off the east coast on Thursday to the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic.
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Another “major” hurricane may be headed towards Florida’s Gulf coast with a possible mid-week landfall right near the Tampa Bay region. “Milton” became a named tropical storm on Saturday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to attain hurricane status by later Sunday as it begins a move to the east. Given the generally favorable environmental conditions, Milton could then become a “major” hurricane as early as Monday as it continues on a trek towards Florida’s west coast.
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Hurricane Helene made landfall on Thursday night as a category 4 “major” hurricane near Florida’s Gulf coast town of Perry and then pushed north through Georgia before grinding to a halt over the Tennessee Valley. Tremendous rainfall fell over the southern Appalachians as the result of strong and persistent upsloping winds associated with Hurricane Helene with as much as two feet in some spots and flooding was extreme. The month of September comes to an end with plenty of tropical activity to monitor in the Atlantic Basin and another system is destined for the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend or early part of next week. The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin has now resulted in 11 named tropical storms with four hurricanes having made landfall in the US, and there certainly may be other opportunities to add onto those numbers.
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