The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.
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There are currently five systems in the Atlantic Basin that are characterized as tropical depression or greater and that high number hasn’t happened since September of 1971. Currently, there are three systems that are classified as tropical storms, Sally, Teddy and Vicky, and one hurricane, Paulette, which passed over the island of Bermuda earlier today. Tropical Storm Sally is a slow-moving system now over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it may end up producing up to two feet of rain during the next couple of days in portions of the northern Gulf coastal region. After landfall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push to the north into southern Mississippi and then to the northeast through Alabama and Georgia – bringing some heavy rainfall along its path. The heaviest of the rain from Sally’s remains are likely to stay south of the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong cold front barrels from northwest-to-southeast towards the eastern seaboard. That cold front will usher in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during the upcoming weekend.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues as we reach the middle part of September with multiple systems on the scene extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is currently categorized as a hurricane, “Paulette”, and it is likely to impact Bermuda in the near-term. There are two tropical storms in the mix including “Rene” in the central part of the tropical Atlantic and “Sally” now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Sally is of great concern to the northern Gulf coast region as it could slow down near and after landfall - potentially resulting in substantial rainfall amounts of more than a foot by the middle of the week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push inland at mid-week bringing significant rains to the south-central states and then into the Carolinas.
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The next 24-36 hours will be a very active period in the Mid-Atlantic region with the threat for severe thunderstorms from later this afternoon into tomorrow night and tropical downpours. There are even signs for a “bow echo” to form later today which could result in damaging wind gusts of > 60 mph (and possible power outages); especially, across eastern Pennsylvania and the southern and central parts of New Jersey. There is even the threat for isolated tornadoes later today in the I-95 corridor. Following all of this activity, a spectacular air mass for this time of year will ride in on stiff NW winds during the day Sunday and the very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels will stay around on Monday as well. Looking ahead, it’ll turn much more unsettled again around here on Tuesday and Wednesday with a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms, and peaking even further down the road, there could be more tropical trouble to deal with in the eastern/southern states over the next week or two.
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Hurricane Laura came ashore last night near the town of Cameron in southwestern Louisiana initially estimated as a category 4 storm. It has pushed northward today into upstate Louisiana and has weakened along the way to a category 1 hurricane; however, it is still producing heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts and will continue to do so into the state of Arkansas and parts of the Tennessee Valley. By the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will interact with an incoming frontal system and upper-level trough to produce some heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region along with the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. All of this activity will clear the east coast by Sunday and a spectacular air mass for late August will push into the Great Lakes, Northeast US and the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Hurricane Laura has reached “major” hurricane status as a category 3 storm and it should intensify into a category 4 system this afternoon as it heads on a collision course with the Texas/Louisiana border region and expected landfall later tonight. Hurricane Laura intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours in a favorable environment of low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures and continues to intensify today - now just a bit under the required levels for a category 4 classification. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall later tonight, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states on Thursday producing heavy rainfall, severe weather, and damaging wind gusts. By the early part of the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will turn to the east and get intertwined with a frontal system and an incoming vigorous upper-level trough to potentially produce some heavy rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Once off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the remnants of Hurricane Laura could actually re-intensify as it moves out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic.
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Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.
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Tropical Storm Laura is a growing threat for the coastline region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall late Wednesday. Tropical Storm Laura is very likely to intensify into hurricane status once out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco has weakened as it nears the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in its vicinity. The low-level circulation center of Tropical Storm Marco has been displaced from the main area of convection (thunderstorms) and it will tend to dissipate over the next few days.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues and there is likely to a “double-strike” of tropical storms on the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Marco is now out over the open waters of the very warm Gulf of Mexico and is likely headed towards a landfall on Monday in the central Gulf region (Louisiana). Tropical Storm Marco is now flirting with hurricane status and its trek over the very warm water of the Gulf could give it the boost needed to attain category one hurricane status. Tropical Storm Laura is currently interacting with the island of Hispaniola and it too is likely to make a run towards the central Gulf region (Louisiana/Texas border region) by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Laura may also get a boost from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico which could boost it to hurricane status before landfall later in the week.
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