Very cold, dry and dense Arctic air is well established this morning in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US at the same time low pressure and its associated moisture field are now pushing to the north from the southeastern states...not a good combination. A significant ice and snow event is now unfolding for the interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas and snow will push into the Mid-Atlantic region later in the day and early tonight with front-end accumulations in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. With an influx of milder air from the ocean, a transition will take place in the I-95 corridor from snow to sleet to freezing rain and ultimately to plain rain in some areas. In addition to the wide range of precipitation types, this storm will bring high and potentially damaging winds and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Looking ahead, another storm could very well threaten the same part of the country next weekend.
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An Arctic air mass poured into the northeastern quadrant of the nation in the overnight hours resulting in very cold and extremely dry conditions. At the same time, a vigorous disturbance in the upper atmosphere has pushed southeastward from the central Plains into the southern Plains. This system will edge into the Deep South by later tonight and surface low pressure will form in the northern Gulf region. On Sunday, the intensifying low pressure system will push northward through the eastern states with its expanding moisture field producing a wide range of impacts from snow-to-ice-to-rain. High (and potentially damaging) winds and coastal flooding will become an increasing concern with this storm on Sunday and impacts will last well into the day on Monday; especially, across the northeastern states.
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Many ingredients are coming together for a high impact type of storm system in the eastern third of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, ice, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and even high (potentially damaging) winds all on the table. The upper-level wave of energy that will be the catalyst for storm development has come ashore and it will dive to the south and east over the next couple of days. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, precipitation will push into the Mid-Atlantic region with cold, dense air in place and a period of snow and/or ice is likely in most interior sections with plain rain a likelihood along coastal areas. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is in line for accumulating snow on the front-end of this storm and this can be followed by a period of icing given the expectation that the dense, cold low-level air mass will be tough to dislodge.
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Many ingredients are coming together for a high impact type of storm system in the eastern third of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, ice, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and even high (potentially damaging) winds all on the table. The upper-level wave of energy that will be the catalyst for storm development is just now coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest and it will dive to the south and east over the next few days. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, precipitation will push into the Mid-Atlantic region with cold, dense air in place and a period of snow and/or ice is likely in most interior sections with rain a likelihood along coastal areas. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is in line for accumulating snow on the front-end of this storm and this can be followed by a period of icing given the expectation that the dense, cold low-level air mass will be tough to dislodge.
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The chances are growing for a significant winter storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later Sunday into Monday. In fact, many ingredients appear to be coming together for a storm system that can have a high impact over a large area of the eastern third of the nation from later Sunday into Monday with snow, ice, rain, coastal flooding, and even high (damaging) winds on the table. There are many details that still have to be ironed out with several days to go before this potential event and the main upper-level wave of energy is way out over the Pacific Ocean. The I-95 corridor may be right on or near the dividing line between substantial snowfall to the north and west and a mix of rain, ice and snow to the south and east.
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An Arctic cold front pushed through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Monday night and the northeastern quadrant of the nation is suffering today as a result. Temperatures are way below-normal for this time of year despite some sunshine and a stiff NW breeze is pushing wind chill values down into single digits and, in some spots, to sub-zero levels. There will be some modification in temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, but another cold air mass will arrive from the northwest at week’s end. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern appears to be evolving into one that could feature multiple storm threats for the eastern US in coming days. A first system looks like it’ll stay far enough off the east coast on Thursday and Friday to have little or no impact in the Mid-Atlantic region, but it still needs to be monitored and could skirt eastern New England. A second storm threat could come in the Sunday/Monday time frame and this one has a much better chance at having an significant impact in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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A new week, a new month, a new year, and a new weather pattern for the eastern US as winter has finally arrived. A significant snowfall continues at this hour in the region from DC-to-the-Delmarva Peninsula-to-southern New Jersey and the snow will wind down later this afternoon from west-to-east. Some snow is now being reported at Philly Airport, but for the most part, today’s storm will bypass the Philly and NYC metro regions as it slides just to their south and east. In addition to very poor road conditions in the hard hit areas, power outages have become an increasing problem given the strong winds and heavy, wet snowfall. Another threat for accumulating snow is likely to come in the Thursday night/early Friday time period and that threat could be for a more widespread part of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.
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The month of December ended with well above normal temperatures throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and the big cities of DC, Philly and NYC had no measurable snow. The new month and new year has coincided with a pattern change in the atmosphere that will bring winter weather to the eastern states including the strong likelihood for significant accumulating snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region with a focus on the zone from DC-to-Delmarva-to-southern New Jersey. A second winter storm is possible late this week that could result in more accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night and Friday.
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The remains of Hurricane Zeta are now racing to the northeast and are resulting in a widespread heavy rain event today from the Appalachian Mountains to New England. This system will push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline early tonight, but a second low will form in the same general region by early tomorrow as a vigorous upper-level low arrives from the Tennessee Valley. This second storm will pull in colder air from the northwest by early tomorrow and the rain is likely to change to snow in interior, higher elevations sections of the Northeast US with small accumulations on the table in places like the Poconos (PA), Catskills, and Hudson Valley region of New York State. The first freeze will take place late tomorrow night in many spots of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and a cold Halloween Day will follow. Another cold blast arrives on Sunday night and the first day of the new work week on Monday will feature windy and cold weather conditions with “lake effect” snows around the Great Lakes and to the western side of the Appalachians.
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Hurricane Zeta is headed for a landfall later today in the southeastern part of Louisiana - perhaps as a category 2 storm - and this will make the 5th direct hit this tropical season in that particular state. After landfall, Zeta will combine with an upper-level low to generate a wide swath of heavy rain from the Gulf coastal region to the southern part of New England. By late tomorrow night, much colder air will begin to get wrapped into this powerful storm system as it exits off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result is likely to be a changeover to snow on Friday in some of the interior, higher-elevation locations of the Northeast US and accumulations are certainly on the table in some of these areas. The first hard freeze of the season is likely to follow on Friday night/early Saturday in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and a cold Halloween will follow on Saturday. Yet another impressive cold air outbreak will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by early next week and there can be “lake effect” type snows in the Great Lakes - perhaps even snow showers reaching the I-95 corridor later Monday.
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