Today will feature high heat and humidity once again in the Mid-Atlantic region and high temperature records for the date are likely to be set in many locations. There is relief on the way, however, thanks to a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England during the next couple of days. Temperatures will be much reduced in the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon as an ocean flow of air (east-to-northwest winds) develops following the passage of the back door cool front. The transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the cool down at the end of the week will come with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe.
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There were some records tied or broken on Monday and a few spots reached the century mark; however, the peak of this current hot spell comes today with numerous 100-degree readings likely all along the DC-to-Boston corridor. In fact, it is possible that 100-degree readings are experienced later today in each state all the way from Maine-to-Florida. In Philadelphia on Monday, temperatures reached 99 degrees which broke the record for the date set just one year ago, and 100 degrees is certainly on the table for this afternoon which would be the first at “PHL” since July of 2012.
There is relief in sight for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and, in some cases, there can be a dramatic drop in temperatures following the passage of a back door cool front. The overall weather pattern becomes unsettled as well with the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning on Wednesday afternoon and then increasing on Thursday...any thunderstorm that forms on either day can be strong-to-severe. Looking ahead to next week, overall temperatures look quite reasonable for much of the eastern half of the nation as the calendar transitions from June to July.
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Many ingredients are coming together to raise the chance of severe weather later this afternoon and evening in the Mid-Atlantic region. A strong surface cold front, high heat and humidity, and an impressive upper-level disturbance will help to destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon and there are likely to be strong-to-severe thunderstorms impacting the I-95 corridor somewhere between 2pm and 8pm. The cold front clears the coast by late tonight and Friday will turn out to be a less humid day featuring plenty of sunshine and warm conditions.
The moderate humidity expected on Friday will give way to an extended stretch of high heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week. A very strong ridge of high pressure will build into the eastern states, and this will lead to high temperatures well up in the 90’s for multiple days all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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It has become uncomfortably humid and warm today across much of the Mid-Atlantic region following the progression of a warm frontal system that is pushing slowly to the north. This change in atmospheric conditions comes following a cool stretch of weather that featured high temperatures on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday that were well below-normal for the middle of June. The atmosphere will quickly destabilize this afternoon and there are likely to be downpours and strong-to-severe thunderstorms impacting the I-95 corridor somewhere between 1pm and 8pm.
A surface cold frontal system will approach the Mid-Atlantic region from the northwest on Thursday, and this will combine with an upper-air disturbance to bring another threat of severe weather threat to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The likely timetable for severe thunderstorm activity on Thursday will again be 1pm-8pm, and there can be damaging wind gusts, hail, and even isolated tornadoes in any spot along the I-95 corridor. The cold front clears the coast by later tomorrow night and Friday will turn out to be a rather decent day featuring warm and dry conditions to end the work week.
Looking ahead, a very strong ridge of high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region by the early part of next week and this will lead to high heat and humidity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week. After a very warm day on Saturday, temperatures are likely to soar into the 90’s on Sunday and then the first half of next week will feature high heat and humidity and 100 degrees will be a possibility in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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There is a lot going on in the world of weather across the nation with severe weather threats each of the next few days and scorching heat is on the horizon for the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. In the near-term, severe weather will be a major concern today in the nation’s mid-section (Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska) and then that threat zone will shift eastward on Wednesday to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and then to the eastern states on Thursday.
In terms of temperatures, there has been unusually cool weather across the northeastern part of the nation during the past few days and it continues today…this will be just a fond memory in a week’s time as sweltering heat is on the way. Actually, temperatures will surge to much warmer levels on Wednesday and Thursday, but the intense and more sustained heat is coming for the period from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week and 100-degree highs are possible all along the DC-to-Boston corridor.
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Father’s Day turned out to be very cool across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US with some spots nearly 20 degrees below normal for the middle of June and today will be much the same. Temperatures will rebound dramatically by the middle of this week with highs in the 90’s on the table by Thursday afternoon along the DC-to-Boston corridor. The warm-up at mid-week comes ahead of a strong cold front which can produce strong-to-severe thunderstorms by later Thursday or Thursday night.
After backing off slightly for the end of the week and beginning of the weekend, temperatures are likely to surge in the DC-to-Boston corridor during the early and middle parts of next week with a run to 100 degrees possible in the big cities along Route I-95. Very strong upper-level ridging which has been largely confined to the western states in recent days will push to a position centered over the eastern states early next week and temperatures will respond in a dramatic fashion.
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The Northern Hemisphere saw its first hurricane of the season on Monday in the eastern Pacific Ocean, but overall, the 2025 tropical season is off to a relatively quiet start. In fact, there are reports that this is the latest time since 1993 for the first hurricane to develop in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, the western Pacific Ocean hasn’t seen a named storm so far this tropical season and there are (unconfirmed) reports that this may be the latest time ever for that to take place. In the Atlantic Basin, it is still quite early in the season and there has been no activity so far, but there is the possibility of a tropical system in about a week to ten days or so across the southwestern Gulf of America or northwestern Caribbean Sea.
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The 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season officially gets underway on Sunday, June 1st, and there are signs that the initial threat could come as early as ten days or so from now (i.e., June 8, 9, 10th time frame). A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO appears to be foreshadowing the potential of tropical troubles in this time frame as it transitions into a “phase” that is generally quite favorable for activity in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a second favorable sign may be the evolution of the upper-level pattern of highs and lows across North America which may feature strong ridging over southeastern Canada in about ten days or so. A strong ridge in this part of North America is often favorable this time of year for an “undercutting” tropical system in the southwestern Atlantic, Gulf of America, or Caribbean Sea where sea surface temperatures are generally warmer-than-normal.
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Recent rain events in the Mid-Atlantic region have helped to alleviate drought conditions that began to develop last fall and more beneficial rainfall is on the way with two storm systems. Clouds will lower and thicken today as high pressure shifts off to the east of here and low pressure pushes into the Ohio Valley. A new low pressure system will form by early tomorrow near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it will produce periods of rain for the mid-week and quite cool conditions as a low-level ocean flow of air forms in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In fact, temperatures may end up being some twenty degrees below-normal on Wednesday with the influence of the still chilly western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front then pushes through the region on Thursday night with a few showers and stalls in the area on Friday. Another low pressure system will likely ride up along that stalled-out boundary zone potentially bringing another round of soaking and beneficial rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region from late Friday into Saturday.
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While global sea surface temperatures continue to run at above-normal levels, there has been a rather dramatic cooling trend across tropical regions all around the world. During the past year or so, water temperatures in the Indian Ocean have dropped to nearly neutral levels around India and well above-normal levels immediately east of Africa have moderated to only slightly above-normal conditions. In the central part of the tropical Pacific Ocean, relatively neutral water temperatures have replaced the El Nino conditions of a year ago when water temperatures were as much as two degrees higher than normal. Perhaps the most dramatic change in water temperatures has taken place in the tropical Atlantic Ocean where much warmer-than-normal conditions of a year ago are virtually normal as we approach the end of April and there is even a pocket of colder-than-normal water just off Africa’s west coast. The tropics are a critically important part of the world with respect to the total energy budget and cooling trends can certainly have an inhibiting impact on the upcoming tropical season.
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