From a climatological point-of-view, it is now the time of year for the Atlantic Basin to start ramping up in terms of tropical activity and indeed, it looks that is happening right on schedule. Typically, the Atlantic Basin ramps up in tropical activity during the month of August, peaks around mid-September, and then gradually winds down during the fall months of October and November. In fact, there are now three tropical waves of interest that will have to be closely monitored over the next several days. One tropical wave is now situated over the Caribbean Sea, a second is located over the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and a third is still far, far away over the continent of Africa.
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There are now two named tropical storms to monitor in the Atlantic Basin with one over the central Gulf of Mexico and the second over the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico and is likely to turn northwest over the next couple of days perhaps making landfall by early Thursday near Galveston, Texas. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bret has pushed into the eastern Caribbean Sea and it will likely encounter some strong wind shear in the near term inhibiting further strengthening. It is unusual to have two named tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin during the month of June with the last couple of occurrences in 1959 and 1968. The US hasn’t had a hurricane landfall during June for over 30 years, but the US had three June hurricanes in 1886 – which was the most active hurricane year on record for the US.
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“Astronomical" summer begins on June 21st this year and the exact date and time are determined by the Earth’s position relative to the sun. Meteorologists use the annual temperature cycle to determine the time frame for the seasons by splitting the year into four quarters with the statistically hottest three months of June, July and August considered to be “meteorological" summer. Whatever the declaration, the next several days will bring about a dramatic change in temperatures to the Mid-Atlantic region with much cooler-than-normal conditions today, tomorrow and Thursday and then a big warm up for the weekend and much of next week. This upcoming warm up is quite likely to bring the return of 90+ degree highs to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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May is very likely to end up cooler-than-normal in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC and it looks like the same overall pattern will continue through the middle of June. Upper-level low pressure has dominated the scene in the Northeast US during the past several weeks and there are signs that this scenario will continue for awhile longer and contribute to more cool air outbreaks and more rain events. Another contributing factor to the cooler-than-normal weather in this region is the "soil moisture" which is quite high given all the recent rainfall and this scenario shows no sign of changing significantly anytime soon.
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The ingredients are coming together for a tornado outbreak late today/early tonight across Oklahoma and Kansas with a particular focus on the central parts of both states. Snow is falling today in Denver, 90+ degrees is likely for highs from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, and the battle zone region in between these two very anomalous air masses is in the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes are not the only threat in those areas, hail is also possible later today on the order of 3-to-4 inches in diameter.
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The next few days will bring some of the warmest conditions so far this year into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor including the first 90 degree readings in some spots and possible record-breaking high temperatures. This warm spell does not, however, mark the end of the cool air outbreaks for the eastern US and there are signs for fairly sustained cooler-than-normal period as we head into the Memorial Day weekend.
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Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow and now much of the US will experience an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May. This cold snap could very well result in low temperature readings in the 30’s next week on multiple mornings in many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor – and that may not be the end of it as signs point to another cold shot later in the month.
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Two big weather stories going forward for the DC, Philly and New York City metro regions: (1) a heavy rain event is coming from later tomorrow night into Friday and it can be accompanied by strong thunderstorms and (2) an extended period of colder-than-normal weather from this weekend into the latter part of next week. This chilly stretch of weather could even result in accumulating snow in some of the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic region as well as in portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Strong low pressure will form tomorrow in the south-central states - aided by tremendous upper-level energy - and then push northward towards the eastern Great Lakes. Colder-than-normal air pushes in this weekend following the passage of a strong cold front and thanks to the formation of a classic “omega”-shaped blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere, it will stay colder-than-normal for several days.
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There are two big weather stories for the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC going forward over the next week-to-ten days: (1) a heavy rain event is coming that will be centered on late Thursday night and Friday and (2) an extended period of colder-than-normal weather from this coming Saturday through Thursday of next week and this overall stretch could even result in accumulating snow in some of the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong low pressure will form at mid-week in the south-central US and head towards the Great Lakes region later Thursday. Rain should overspread the I-95 corridor from west-to-east late Thursday or Thursday night and continue into Friday resulting in a soaking rainfall for DC, Philly and NYC. Colder-than-normal air pushes in this weekend following the passage of a cold front and thanks to the formation of a classic “omega”-shaped blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere, it will stay colder-than-normal around here for several days.
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Much warmer air has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll stay quite warm right through Saturday. The peak of this current warm spell will take place on Saturday afternoon when temperatures could soar to around 90 degrees for highs in parts of the I-95 corridor. A back door cold front will then drop southward through the Northeast US late Saturday night and it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Sunday in New York City, Philly and DC. After a brief warm up on Monday, it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Tuesday following the passage of a strong cold front and there are additional cool air masses coming our way as we progress through the month of May.
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