There are currently two tropical waves of interest in and around the Gulf of Mexico and both appear to be headed for a period of intensification and slow-movement. This particular outlook for intensification and slow-movement raises the possibility for some excessive rainfall amounts in coming days; especially, from southeastern Texas to southwestern Louisiana and perhaps in the coastal region from Florida to North Carolina. There is yet a third wave of interest that looks quite impressive just now coming off the west coast of Africa in this typically climatologically-active time of year for the Atlantic Basin.
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From a climatological point-of-view, tropical activity tends to ramp up in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August as sea surface temperatures climb towards their highest levels of the year. In fact, sea surface temperatures currently are generally warmer-than-normal in the all-important tropical breeding grounds of the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, there are now two tropical systems to closely monitor over the next several days with one over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and the other near the northwestern side of the Bahamas Island chain. The system over the Yucatan Peninsula poses a big threat to Texas in coming days and the system near the east coast of Florida poses a threat to the Southeast US coastline from Florida to North Carolina.
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From a climatological point-of-view, it is now the time of year for the Atlantic Basin to start ramping up in terms of tropical activity and indeed that is happening right on schedule. Typically, tropical activity ramps up in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August, peaks around mid-September, and then gradually winds down during the fall months of October and November. Currently, there are two tropical systems of interest in the Atlantic Basin.Tropical Storm Franklin is headed today across the Yucatan Peninsula on its way to a likely landfall in northeastern Mexico in a couple of days. In addition, a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic known as “Invest 99L” will likely face some difficult environmental conditions during the next 48 hours, but it will then have to be closely monitored as it comes closer to the US east coast and reaches a more favorable atmosphere for intensification.
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From a climatological point-of-view, it is now the time of year for the Atlantic Basin to start ramping up in terms of tropical activity and indeed, it looks that is happening right on schedule. Typically, the Atlantic Basin ramps up in tropical activity during the month of August, peaks around mid-September, and then gradually winds down during the fall months of October and November. In fact, there are now three tropical waves of interest that will have to be closely monitored over the next several days. One tropical wave is now situated over the Caribbean Sea, a second is located over the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and a third is still far, far away over the continent of Africa.
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There are now two named tropical storms to monitor in the Atlantic Basin with one over the central Gulf of Mexico and the second over the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico and is likely to turn northwest over the next couple of days perhaps making landfall by early Thursday near Galveston, Texas. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bret has pushed into the eastern Caribbean Sea and it will likely encounter some strong wind shear in the near term inhibiting further strengthening. It is unusual to have two named tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin during the month of June with the last couple of occurrences in 1959 and 1968. The US hasn’t had a hurricane landfall during June for over 30 years, but the US had three June hurricanes in 1886 – which was the most active hurricane year on record for the US.
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“Astronomical" summer begins on June 21st this year and the exact date and time are determined by the Earth’s position relative to the sun. Meteorologists use the annual temperature cycle to determine the time frame for the seasons by splitting the year into four quarters with the statistically hottest three months of June, July and August considered to be “meteorological" summer. Whatever the declaration, the next several days will bring about a dramatic change in temperatures to the Mid-Atlantic region with much cooler-than-normal conditions today, tomorrow and Thursday and then a big warm up for the weekend and much of next week. This upcoming warm up is quite likely to bring the return of 90+ degree highs to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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May is very likely to end up cooler-than-normal in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC and it looks like the same overall pattern will continue through the middle of June. Upper-level low pressure has dominated the scene in the Northeast US during the past several weeks and there are signs that this scenario will continue for awhile longer and contribute to more cool air outbreaks and more rain events. Another contributing factor to the cooler-than-normal weather in this region is the "soil moisture" which is quite high given all the recent rainfall and this scenario shows no sign of changing significantly anytime soon.
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The ingredients are coming together for a tornado outbreak late today/early tonight across Oklahoma and Kansas with a particular focus on the central parts of both states. Snow is falling today in Denver, 90+ degrees is likely for highs from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, and the battle zone region in between these two very anomalous air masses is in the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes are not the only threat in those areas, hail is also possible later today on the order of 3-to-4 inches in diameter.
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The next few days will bring some of the warmest conditions so far this year into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor including the first 90 degree readings in some spots and possible record-breaking high temperatures. This warm spell does not, however, mark the end of the cool air outbreaks for the eastern US and there are signs for fairly sustained cooler-than-normal period as we head into the Memorial Day weekend.
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Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow and now much of the US will experience an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May. This cold snap could very well result in low temperature readings in the 30’s next week on multiple mornings in many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor – and that may not be the end of it as signs point to another cold shot later in the month.
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