1:10 PM | *Tropics still full of potential…multiple upcoming threats*

August 30, 2017Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Harvey has made a second landfall in southwestern Louisiana and is now about 30 miles to the north of Lake Charles with sustained winds at 45 mph. Meanwhile, Irma has formed in the eastern Atlantic and it could become a major hurricane in coming days. In fact, in about 10 days or so, Irma could become a big problem to deal with in the region of the Southeast US, Bahamas or northern Caribbean Sea – just too early to say. In about 5 days or so, there are some signs that another tropical system could form in the western Gulf of Mexico – the last thing that is needed in that area. Meanwhile, another very impressive tropical wave lurks right over the breeding grounds region of Africa and it could ultimately become another system to watch as it reaches the Atlantic.

1:00 PM | **Hurricane Harvey closes in on southeast Texas…tremendous rainfall amounts expected over a several day period…second tropical system to ride up along Southeast US coastline**

August 25, 2017Paul Dorian

Harvey is now a strong category 2 hurricane and it is closing in on southeastern Texas near Corpus Christi. Hurricane Harvey will come to a grinding halt over the next couple of days and could very well be “forced” to loop back around over the open warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico due to a roadblock pattern in the upper atmosphere.  As a result, there will be several days of torrential rainfall over southeastern Texas and final amounts are likely to be staggering when all is said and done later next week.  

Meanwhile, a second tropical system is getting better organized just to the southwest of Florida.  This system could strengthen into Tropical Storm “Irma” over the next few days as it churns northeastward along the Southeast US coastline.  In fact, “soon-to-be” Irma could reach hurricane status by the time it reaches the region near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could end up throwing some rain and wind back into the I-95 corridor during the early part of next week.

11:30 AM | *Major hurricane drought in the US could be coming to an end with Harvey*

August 24, 2017Paul Dorian

Two hurricane streaks could come to an end over the next couple of days.  First, Texas has not been hit directly by a hurricane since Hurricane “Ike” struck the state in September 2008 as a category 2 storm. This streak appears quite likely to be coming to an end as Harvey appears to be headed towards hurricane status as it closes in on the southeast Texas coastline.  Second, there has not been a major (i.e., category 3 or higher) hurricane strike on the US mainland since 2005 – the longest “drought” of major hurricanes in recorded history since the middle 1800’s.  The last major hurricane to hit the US was Wilma in October 2005 (southwestern Florida) - 4322 days ago (info courtesy Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University). This streak has a chance to come to an end since it is not out of the realm of possibility that Harvey strengthens all the way to category 3 status before making landfall in southeast Texas – perhaps somewhere near Corpus Christi.  

Elsewhere, a second tropical system is likely to gain strength over the next few days just off the Florida coastline.  If this system indeed reaches tropical storm status – quite a realistic scenario – it would become officially named “Irma”. This tropical system is likely to move slowly northeastward in coming days just off the Southeast US coastline producing heavy rainfall from Florida to North Carolina.

11:45 AM | *Two tropical systems to monitor…one poses a major threat to Texas/Louisiana in terms of tremendous flooding potential…another could impact the Southeast US coastline with heavy rainfall*

August 23, 2017Paul Dorian

There are currently two tropical waves of interest in and around the Gulf of Mexico and both appear to be headed for a period of intensification and slow-movement. This particular outlook for intensification and slow-movement raises the possibility for some excessive rainfall amounts in coming days; especially, from southeastern Texas to southwestern Louisiana and perhaps in the coastal region from Florida to North Carolina. There is yet a third wave of interest that looks quite impressive just now coming off the west coast of Africa in this typically climatologically-active time of year for the Atlantic Basin.

1:30 PM | *Two tropical systems to monitor…one poses a big threat to Texas…the second could impact the Southeast US coastline*

August 22, 2017Paul Dorian

From a climatological point-of-view, tropical activity tends to ramp up in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August as sea surface temperatures climb towards their highest levels of the year. In fact, sea surface temperatures currently are generally warmer-than-normal in the all-important tropical breeding grounds of the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, there are now two tropical systems to closely monitor over the next several days with one over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and the other near the northwestern side of the Bahamas Island chain. The system over the Yucatan Peninsula poses a big threat to Texas in coming days and the system near the east coast of Florida poses a threat to the Southeast US coastline from Florida to North Carolina.

11:10 AM | *An update on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin*

August 08, 2017Paul Dorian

From a climatological point-of-view, it is now the time of year for the Atlantic Basin to start ramping up in terms of tropical activity and indeed that is happening right on schedule. Typically, tropical activity ramps up in the Atlantic Basin during the month of August, peaks around mid-September, and then gradually winds down during the fall months of October and November. Currently, there are two tropical systems of interest in the Atlantic Basin.Tropical Storm Franklin is headed today across the Yucatan Peninsula on its way to a likely landfall in northeastern Mexico in a couple of days. In addition, a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic known as “Invest 99L” will likely face some difficult environmental conditions during the next 48 hours, but it will then have to be closely monitored as it comes closer to the US east coast and reaches a more favorable atmosphere for intensification.

12:25 PM | *Tropics getting active in the Atlantic Basin*

August 04, 2017Paul Dorian

From a climatological point-of-view, it is now the time of year for the Atlantic Basin to start ramping up in terms of tropical activity and indeed, it looks that is happening right on schedule. Typically, the Atlantic Basin ramps up in tropical activity during the month of August, peaks around mid-September, and then gradually winds down during the fall months of October and November. In fact, there are now three tropical waves of interest that will have to be closely monitored over the next several days. One tropical wave is now situated over the Caribbean Sea, a second is located over the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and a third is still far, far away over the continent of Africa.