While the main focus of attention has been on tropical activity in recent days, there has been some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region and that threat will continue from this afternoon into mid-week. A surface trough of low pressure situated in the I-95 corridor is helping to fuel the formation of numerous showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these will make it into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later in the day and early tonight. A cold frontal system will then approach the I-95 corridor later Tuesday and it too can generate some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. As that same frontal system stalls out just to the south of here on Wednesday, there still can be some strong thunderstorm activity to monitor at mid-week.
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Tropical Storm Laura is a growing threat for the coastline region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall late Wednesday. Tropical Storm Laura is very likely to intensify into hurricane status once out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco has weakened as it nears the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in its vicinity. The low-level circulation center of Tropical Storm Marco has been displaced from the main area of convection (thunderstorms) and it will tend to dissipate over the next few days.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues and there is likely to a “double-strike” of tropical storms on the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Marco is now out over the open waters of the very warm Gulf of Mexico and is likely headed towards a landfall on Monday in the central Gulf region (Louisiana). Tropical Storm Marco is now flirting with hurricane status and its trek over the very warm water of the Gulf could give it the boost needed to attain category one hurricane status. Tropical Storm Laura is currently interacting with the island of Hispaniola and it too is likely to make a run towards the central Gulf region (Louisiana/Texas border region) by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Laura may also get a boost from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico which could boost it to hurricane status before landfall later in the week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start and two systems are likely to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico by the early and middle parts of next week. One system is likely to cross over or right near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in the near-term and then push over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. A second system is likely headed near or over the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic, and Cuba in the near-term and then perhaps through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Both of these systems are likely to intensify into named tropical storms status – one would be “Laura” and the other “Marco” – and perhaps even to hurricane status before possible landfalls next week as high sea surface temperatures will aid in further intensification.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of August. There are now two tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin which are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days with the Gulf of Mexico the likely high impact zone by the early or middle of next week. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity over the next couple of week. In addition, the latter part of August is a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of the month of August. There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and both are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity as we progress through the rest of August. In addition, the latter part of August is from a “climatological” point-of-view, a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and a third wave now located over the western part of Africa and there are suggestions that this active pattern will not ease up as we push through the remainder of August and into the early part of September. An index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO that tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance is likely to enter into “phases” that are usually quite active in the Atlantic Basin during this time of year. In addition, the second half of August is climatologically a time of the year when tropical activity tends to ramp up on its own in the Atlantic Basin as sea surface temperatures are usually very warm and nearing their peak for the tropical season.
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The overall weather pattern is shaping up to feature cooler weather in the eastern US where temperatures will be well below-normal at times in coming days and very hot weather in the western US where numerous record highs will be challenged. A large upper-level trough of low pressure will extend from eastern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week at the same time high pressure ridging will intensify over the Southwest US. The transition to the cooler weather in the eastern US has come about with plenty of rainfall and the buildup of heat in the western US has come with an increase in wildfire activity that often ramps up during this time of year.
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The overall weather pattern will remain very unsettled in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region right though the upcoming weekend with the threat for more torrential downpours and localized flash flooding; especially, south of the PA/MD border. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to continue to produce heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2+ inches per hour. Given the already very well-saturated grounds, this additional rainfall can lead to some serious localized flash flooding conditions. With limited wind flow in the lower atmosphere, any shower or thunderstorm that develops in this pattern will be slow-moving and potentially resulting in a few inches of rain over a relatively short period of time.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region over the next several days with the threat for more torrential downpours with rates of 2+ inches per hour and flash flooding conditions. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should be able to provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to result in heavy rainfall in coming days and given the already well-saturated grounds, this can lead to some serious flash flooding. In fact, there were torrential downpours in the pre-dawn hours across northern Virginia that resulted in damage to roadways in places like Manassas Park and the entire DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor remains under “flash flood watches” as a result of the potential for more heavy rainfall and saturated grounds.
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