Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this week as a category 4 (“major”) storm on the northeastern coastline of Nicaragua in Central America. After landfall, Eta brought torrential rainfall and widespread flooding to both Nicaragua and Honduras as it traveled slowly to the west. While over land, the system weakened into tropical depression status, but it has now emerged back out over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea just to the east of Belize. As such, it is likely to intensify as it treks northeastward this weekend and will likely return to at least tropical storm status by the time it reaches the island of Cuba for a second landfall. After that, Eta is likely head to the Florida Straits and could impact the Keys of southern Florida early next week – perhaps even as a hurricane.
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An extended stretch of mild weather has begun in the eastern half of the nation as strong high pressure ridging dominates at all levels of the atmosphere. Given the time of year with increasingly long nights, this mild weather pattern will be quite conducive to the formation of late night and early morning fog. At the same time, much of the western US experiences will experience colder-than-normal conditions in coming days with upper-level low pressure in control.
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Eta is a “major” hurricane and is edging its way to the northeastern coastline of Nicaragua in Central America. The extreme strength of Hurricane Eta combined with its very slow movement is bad news as it will likely result in catastrophic wind damage, tremendous rainfall amounts of up to three feet in some spots, and landslides in some of the higher terrain sections of Central America. After landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later today, Hurricane Eta will inch slowly westward over the next couple of days and push over Honduras on Thursday. Later in the week, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta (or its remnants) to turn northward and then to the northeast. This change in course will likely result in a re-strengthening of Eta as it pushes back out over the open waters of the western Caribbean Sea by the early part of the weekend and then the threat from this tropical system will perhaps shift to Cuba and southern Florida by the latter part of the weekend or early part of next week.
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The calendar has flipped to November, but the unfolding weather pattern suggests tropical threats are not over just yet for the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US. Hurricane Eta has strengthened into a strong category 2 storm in the western Caribbean and it is headed for a landfall in Central America in the near term – likely as a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). In fact, there is a decent chance that Hurricane Eta strengthens into category 4 “major” hurricane status before making landfall early Tuesday in the country of Nicaragua. After landfall, Hurricane Eta will push westward and likely reach Honduras later in the week and then it may skirt Belize as it heads back to the open waters of the still warm western Caribbean Sea. It is at this time that the concern may begin to increase significantly for residents in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast US as whatever remains of Eta could re-strengthen and push northward towards the US by early next week.
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The remains of Hurricane Zeta are now racing to the northeast and are resulting in a widespread heavy rain event today from the Appalachian Mountains to New England. This system will push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline early tonight, but a second low will form in the same general region by early tomorrow as a vigorous upper-level low arrives from the Tennessee Valley. This second storm will pull in colder air from the northwest by early tomorrow and the rain is likely to change to snow in interior, higher elevations sections of the Northeast US with small accumulations on the table in places like the Poconos (PA), Catskills, and Hudson Valley region of New York State. The first freeze will take place late tomorrow night in many spots of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and a cold Halloween Day will follow. Another cold blast arrives on Sunday night and the first day of the new work week on Monday will feature windy and cold weather conditions with “lake effect” snows around the Great Lakes and to the western side of the Appalachians.
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Hurricane Zeta is headed for a landfall later today in the southeastern part of Louisiana - perhaps as a category 2 storm - and this will make the 5th direct hit this tropical season in that particular state. After landfall, Zeta will combine with an upper-level low to generate a wide swath of heavy rain from the Gulf coastal region to the southern part of New England. By late tomorrow night, much colder air will begin to get wrapped into this powerful storm system as it exits off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result is likely to be a changeover to snow on Friday in some of the interior, higher-elevation locations of the Northeast US and accumulations are certainly on the table in some of these areas. The first hard freeze of the season is likely to follow on Friday night/early Saturday in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and a cold Halloween will follow on Saturday. Yet another impressive cold air outbreak will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by early next week and there can be “lake effect” type snows in the Great Lakes - perhaps even snow showers reaching the I-95 corridor later Monday.
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While the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains active, an Arctic blast continues to bring record-breaking cold to portions of the western and central US as well as some unusual early season accumulating snow and ice. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm “Zeta” is now entering the Gulf of Mexico after a brief encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and it is quite likely to return to hurricane status (category 1) later today and then make a landfall later tomorrow in southeastern Louisiana. The remnants of “Zeta” will combine with a strong upper-level low now over the Southwest US to generate a significant rain event in the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from Thursday into early Friday. On Friday, enough cold air will get wrapped into the powerful system to cause a changeover to snow to result in the first accumulating snows of the season for portions of the Northeast US. All of this will be followed by a cold Halloween on Saturday with temperatures some fifteen degrees below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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While the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains active, an Arctic blast has brought record-breaking cold to portions of the western and central US as well as some unusual early season accumulating snow. In fact, the accumulating snow will take place all the way down to New Mexico and Texas over the next 48 hours or so with some spots likely receiving a foot or more. Meanwhile, the remains of Tropical Storm “Zeta” are likely to produce significant rainfall across the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from Thursday into Friday after making a mid-week landfall in the central Gulf coastal region. By later Friday, some of the cold air from this Arctic Blast will makes its way into the Northeast US and it could result in a changeover to snow in interior, higher elevation locations as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm “Zeta” passes through the region.
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It has already been quite cold for this time of year across much of the interior Northwest and Northern Plains with significant accumulating snow in many areas in recent days and the worse may be yet to come. An Arctic blast will send temperatures plunging over the next few days all the way down to the southwestern US and southern Plains and accumulating snow can fall all the way down to states like Texas and New Mexico. In addition, numerous record low temperatures are likely to fall from the Northern Rockies to the southern Plains during this unusual late October cold wave. Meanwhile, in the tropics, Hurricane “Epsilon” will turn to the northeast and accelerate this weekend out over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Another tropical system will intensify over the northwest Caribbean Sea – likely reaching tropical storm status this weekend – and then it could head towards the central Gulf coastal region by the middle of next week.
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This is the time of the year in which summer is trying to hold on at the same time winter is trying to make a statement that cold and snow is on the way. Indeed, the next week to ten days will feature tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin – Tropical Storm “Epsilon” has now formed – at the same time cold air dominates the scene from the interior Northwest to the Upper Midwest with significant accumulating snow in many parts of the northern and central US.
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