Strong high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere will build into the western US early next week at the same time a vigorous upper-level low drops southeastward from Canada into the Northeast US. As a result, some extreme heat - and potentially record-breaking heat - is likely to develop in the western US for the early and middle parts of next week at the same time refreshing cooler-than-normal air drops into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Elsewhere, there are strong signs for some tropical activity later next week or weekend over the Gulf of Mexico which could be the first significant system of the 2021 Atlantic Basin season.
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The combination of a moist air mass, surface frontal systems, and a slow-moving upper-level trough is bringing more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be downpours later in the day and again tonight which could result in some localized flash flooding. In addition, there is the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity ahead of an advancing cold frontal system. The upper-level trough will still be to the west of the I-95 corridor on Friday leading to an unsettled day and the possibility of additional showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds across the eastern states this weekend and a classic summertime “Bermuda high” setup is likely to result in hot, increasingly humid and summer-like weather for the period from Sunday-to-Wednesday with daily high temperatures at or above the 90 degree mark in the I-95 corridor.
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The combination of an increasingly moist flow of air, two surface frontal systems, and a slow-moving upper-level trough will raise the prospects for downpours in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night and also the chance for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. The rain may actually come in two different waves – one late tonight/early Thursday associated with a warm frontal system and a second late tomorrow and tomorrow night associated with a cold front. High pressure builds across the eastern states this weekend and a classic summertime “Bermuda high” setup is likely to result in hot, humid and summer-like weather for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures at or above the 90 degree mark in the I-95 corridor.
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The weekend was very chilly in the Mid-Atlantic region and it was accompanied by a soaking rain event which was actually beneficial (despite its poor timing) due to the recent dry spell. It looks like more significant rainfall is on the table for Thursday and Thursday night and it could include strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. The combination of an increasingly moist flow of air, surface frontal system, and a slow-moving upper-level trough will raise the prospects for the rain and potential severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Temperatures remain quite warm today across the Mid-Atlantic region, but dew points have come down noticeably since last night’s frontal passage. Big changes are coming by the weekend, however, with respect to temperatures that could drop to as much as twenty degrees below-normal for the late stages of the month of May. Low pressure will move from the Midwest on Friday to the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic by later Saturday and it’ll combine with a building high pressure system across southeastern Canada to generate the first widespread and soaking rain event in weeks for the Mid-Atlantic region. It’ll remain very cool for this time of year on Sunday and unsettled with lingering showers possible. The best weather day of the long holiday weekend is quite likely going to be Monday with increasing amounts of sunshine and noticeably milder conditions.
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Temperatures have surged today in the Mid-Atlantic region ahead of an approaching frontal system and humidity levels have climbed dramatically as well. The combination of very warm and humid air, a strong surface front, and vigorous energy aloft will lead to scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight. Any strong-to-severe storm that forms can potentially produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. After another warm day on Thursday (but less humid), temperatures will begin a downward trend on Friday as high pressure builds to our north into southeastern Canada. Low pressure will trek from the Midwest on Friday to the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters by later Saturday producing a beneficial soaking rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region as a very chilly Memorial Day weekend gets underway.
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Last weekend was very warm in the Mid-Atlantic region with highs in many places like Philly and Washington, D.C. above the 90 degree mark on both days…this weekend will be quite a different story. The Memorial Day weekend has been unofficially called the beginning of the summer season, but it will be anything but beach weather this time around in the Mid-Atlantic region. Anyone who has been a long-time resident of this area knows that an ocean flow this time of year can result in highs in the 50’s and 60’s rather than the more desired 70’s and 80’s. In addition to the cooler-than-normal conditions expected this weekend, it looks like it will get started with a chilly, but beneficial rainfall from Friday into Saturday.
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Anyone who has been a long-time resident of the Mid-Atlantic region knows that despite being dubbed the “first weekend of the summer”, Memorial Day weekend can actually turn out to be quite ugly with chilly and damp conditions. Indeed, the overall pattern appears to be setting up for just such weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region – at least for part of the upcoming long holiday weekend. All it takes this time of year to go from warm weather in the 70’s and 80’s to chilly weather in the 50’s and 60’s is for a strong high pressure system to build into the Northeast US or southeastern Canada. Indications are that this very well may happen this weekend likely resulting in anything but beach type weather for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A surge in temperatures is about to take place in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures climbing well into the 80’s at mid-week along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures have yet to reach the 90 degree mark officially this spring in the I-95 corridor, but they have a pretty decent shot this week in the Washington, D.C. metro region and an outside shot in Philly and New York City. One wrench in the unseasonably warm outlook is the possibility that a back door cool front could knock off several degrees later in the week; especially, in the New York City metro region and coastal New Jersey.
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The overall weather pattern that is unfolding is going to disappoint those in the eastern 2/3rds of the nation who are looking for sustained warmth as we progress through the month of May. In fact, signs point to a continuation of colder-than-normal outbreak into this large stretch of the nation well into the second half of May. In some cases, these cold air outbreaks will result in low temperatures near or below freezing which is a threat to growers from the Rockies-to-Northern Plains-to-Upper Midwest and in some cases this pattern will result in significant accumulating snow (e.g., higher elevations in the Rockies).
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