Tropical Storm Fred came ashore late yesterday in western Florida and the remains are now pushing north-northeastward across the northwestern part of Georgia. Despite its recent weakening, this system continues to produce some significant rainfall and strong thunderstorm activity in the Southeast US and Tennessee Valley and it will likely do so tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Grace is moving westward through the Caribbean Sea and is likely to reach the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by Thursday – probably as a hurricane. Finally, Tropical Storm Henri has formed over the Atlantic and is currently meandering not too far from the island of Bermuda. This system is quite worrisome in that it may come awfully close to the US east coast before hopefully turning away…needs to be very closely monitored.
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Tropical Storm “Fred” is strengthening as it closes in on the Panhandle region of Florida and it could even reach hurricane status before making landfall this evening. “Fred” will weaken quickly after landfall in terms of its wind field; however, its tropical moisture field will push northward over the few days resulting in significant rainfall from the Gulf coast to Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. “Grace” has weakened (temporarily) to tropical depression status and is likely to take a track much farther to the south of “Fred” as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure over the western Atlantic. A third system over the Atlantic will tend to meander not too far from Bermuda and it could very well become Tropical Storm “Henri” in the near-term.
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The Mid-Atlantic region remains quite hot and humid today and there is a chance for scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from later in the day through early tonight. Today will be the last day of the oppressive heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic as a cool frontal system will usher in more comfortable air for the weekend; especially, by the time Sunday rolls around when afternoon temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 80’s and humidity will be much more bearable.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin remains quite active with two systems to monitor. The first system that was at one time classified as Tropical Storm “Fred” is now a “depression”, but it is likely to regain storm status again in the near future. This system will push towards the Florida Keys by early tomorrow then likely to a position over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, “Fred” will head towards the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle and it could intensify further before making a landfall sometime late Monday. A second system that is now over the central Atlantic is very likely to become Tropical Storm “Grace” and it is likely to take a more southerly track to its predecessor “Fred” and possibly end up in the southern/western Gulf of Mexico.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become quite active with one named storm (“Fred”) just south of the Dominican Republic on the eastern side of the Caribbean island of Hispaniola and a second system intensifying in the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm “Fred” is likely headed to the Florida Keys by the early part of the weekend and then to the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are generally warmer-than-normal. TS “Fred” could then reach the Panhandle region of western Florida by early next week and the remains may then push northward through the eastern states later in the week. Meanwhile, the second Atlantic tropical system could end up taking a similar track as “Fred” – perhaps impacting the same northern part of the Caribbean.
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After “Elsa” came ashore in northwestern Florida on July 7th, the tropical Atlantic experienced an extended quiet stretch of weather….that quiet stretch is now over. There are two tropical systems currently located in the central Atlantic and it is the frontrunner that is of increasing concern. This system is nearing the Caribbean Sea and it has a good chance of becoming a named (“Fred”) storm in coming days and could ultimately have an impact on southern Florida and then spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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The temperature pattern across the US during the month of July was pretty close-to-normal (+1.1 degrees F) and there was an extended quiet stretch in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, there has not been a single named storm in the tropical Atlantic since “Elsa” which came ashore as a tropical storm in northwestern Florida on July 7th. Several signals point to an end to the quiet phase in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, it is not unusual for tropical activity to pick up during the month of August as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin continue to climb towards their usual early-to-mid September peak. In addition, the unfolding upper-level height pattern across North America will likely become more favorable for a pick up in tropical activity and an increased threat to the US. Specifically, high pressure ridging will build and intensify in coming days over the Northeast US and southeastern part of Canada – often a precursor to tropical activity that can impact the Gulf of Mexico or the east coast of the US.
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The overall weather pattern is evolving to one that will bring very comfortable air to the Mid-Atlantic region as we end the month of July and begin the month of August, but it may a rough time getting there with severe weather a threat on Thursday. A complex of severe thunderstorms will blast through Wisconsin in the overnight hours from northwest-to-southeast and this line will play a key role on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region. There is the potential later tomorrow for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region to include all the parameters from hail-to-heavy rain-to-tornadoes. Once the cold frontal system passes through the region, quite comfortable air will push in on Friday riding along on stiff northwest winds and the comfortable weather pattern will last through much of next week as well – the first full week of August.
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While much of the nation from the Northern Plains to the Pacific Northwest has experienced hotter-than-normal weather this month, the Mid-Atlantic region has enjoyed a nearly normal month in terms of overall temperatures. In fact, it appears the last couple of days of July can include some below-normal temperatures in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and the first week of August could turn out to be cooler-than-normal in much of the eastern US. In addition to the potential for cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region next week, we’ll have to watch out for the possibility of a coastal storm.
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We have certainly heard this warning multiple times this spring and summer…”the potential exists for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and any storm can produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and damaging wind gusts”. In fact, the overall weather pattern will remain on the wet side through the remainder of the week across the eastern half of the nation including in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions with multiple chances of additional showers and thunderstorms.
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“Elsa” has maintained its status at mid-day as a tropical storm while pushing northeastward over the Carolinas and on the way to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. It should reach a position over the Delmarva Peninsula by later tonight and then move to over southern New Jersey by the wee hours of Friday morning. This storm will bring heavy rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region along with possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms; especially, along coastal sections where isolated tornadoes are possible. Highest wind gusts in the overnight hours will be along coastal sections from the Delmarva Peninsula-to-New Jersey-to-Long Island.
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