The weather has certainly been active in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in recent weeks and there is yet another threat for severe thunderstorm activity later today and tonight. A strong cold front will drop southeastward later today from the Great Lakes and into the region and it will be supported by an impressive wave of energy in the upper atmosphere. As a result, there is the chance for downpours later today into tonight and any severe storm can produce hail and perhaps even isolated tornadoes. Give the already well-saturated grounds, any heavy rainfall can result in localized flash flooding conditions. The passage of the strong cold front will usher in a very comfortable air mass for the region to close out the work week and begin the upcoming weekend.
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A significant rain event continues at this time across much of the Mid-Atlantic region associated with the remains of Ida. Flooding has already occurred in some areas as a result of heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms and already well-saturated grounds. The threat of tornadoes will increase markedly later in the day generally in areas along and to the southeast of the DC-to-Philly-to-Atlantic City corridor. Ida is still classified as a tropical depression and it will likely strengthen some later today as it encounters an upper-level jet streak that is located over the northeastern states.
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Ida has been downgraded to a tropical depression, but its impact is far from over. A heavy rain and flooding event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night and there is a severe weather threat as well to include the possibility of tornadoes. The axis of heaviest rainfall may set up just to the north and west of the I-95 corridor and the greatest chance of severe weather may be just to the south and east of there. The remnants of Ida will get “re-invigorated” later tomorrow as it encounters a stalled-out frontal boundary zone and interacts with a strong upper-level jet streak.
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Hurricane Ida came ashore on Sunday in southern Louisiana as a strong category 4 storm following rapid intensification in the prior 24 hour period. Substantial rain fell yesterday and last night in the Gulf coastal region and damaging wind gusts knocked out power for over a million people as of earlier today including all of New Orleans. Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm, but its impact is far from over.
A major rain event associated with the remnants of Ida is coming first to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and then to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Wednesday into early Thursday. In fact, there will be a tendency for the tropical system to be “re-invigorated” in the Mid-Atlantic region as it interacts with an upper-level jet and a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. A swath of significant rainfall amounts of up to several inches will take place during the next 72 hours all along the post-landfall track of Ida extending from the southern states to the Northeast US and flooding will be a big concern all along the path. In addition to the heavy rain threat, severe weather will be on the table including the possibility of tornadic activity on the eastern side of the storm track.
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Hurricane Ida is making a run at Category 5 status in the remaining few hours before landfall along the southeastern Louisiana coastline. The latest observations of Ida include a well-defined eye, max sustained winds at 150 mph after rapid intensification of this system in the past 24 hours, and a northwest movement towards the Louisiana coastline. After landfall later today, Hurricane Ida will remain quite strong as it moves inland and it will gradually turn to the north in the nighttime hours and then take a turn to the northeast by mid-week. The post-landfall track will bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley and then to the Mid-Atlantic region/Northeast US in the Wednesday/Thursday time period.
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The Atlantic Basin remains active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one just to the south of western Cuba is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Storm Ida” will undergo rapid intensification this weekend once it gets past Cuba and out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The expected rapid intensification is likely to result in a “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) of Ida before it makes landfall likely in the northern Gulf coastal region late Sunday or Sunday night. After landfall, the remnants of Ida will turn north initially and then to the northeast and tropical storm conditions could exist all the way into the Tennessee Valley. This post-landfall track would bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley early next week – the last thing they need after recent flooding rains – and perhaps to the Mid-Atlantic region around mid-week.
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The Atlantic Basin remains quite active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one over the west-central Caribbean Sea is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Depression 9” can reach hurricane status by the early part of the weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and then perhaps close in on the western/central Gulf coast by later Sunday or Monday. There is even the chance that TD 9 undergoes rapid intensification and strengthens enough in coming days to reach “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher).
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The Atlantic Basin remains quite active as we push towards the end of August with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one over the Caribbean Sea is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Invest 99L” can reach hurricane status in coming days and perhaps threaten the Texas and/or Louisiana coastline by the early part of next week.
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Tropical Storm Henri remains a threat to Long Island and New England where it could make a direct impact as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane late in the upcoming weekend. This system will become influenced by expanding high pressure over southeastern Canada and a developing upper-level trough over the Appalachian Mountains causing it to make a sharp right turn in the near-term. In addition, more favorable environmental conditions will allow for intensification of Henri this weekend from the current tropical storm status to hurricane levels and it could very well be closing in on Long Island and southern New England as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by late in the day on Sunday. All residents from the northern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England should closely monitor the movement of Tropical Storm Henri.
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The remnants of Tropical Storm “Fred” continue to push to the northeast today and are now centered over the southwestern part of Pennsylvania. Its tropical moisture field has spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and is enhancing the chance for downpours later today and tonight and also the chance for severe thunderstorm activity which may include isolated tornadoes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm “Henri” continues to spin out over the Atlantic Ocean and is likely to intensify into hurricane status in the near-term. There are some “red flags” in the developing weather pattern that suggest “Henri” should be very closely monitored in coming days; especially, for coastal residents of the Northeast US.
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