The month of December is now underway and after a seasonably chilly day on Wednesday, it’ll turn windy and noticeably milder this afternoon with temperatures making a run to 65 degrees in DC, 60 in Philly, and to 55 degrees in NYC. This warm up will be rather short-lived, however, for at least the central and northern part of the Mid-Atlantic region as the next cold front will usher in chillier air for tomorrow and the upcoming weekend. The weather pattern for next week looks quite active with a strong cold front arriving in the eastern states early and then two systems could follow – one at mid-week and the second one in the late week. The cold air mass in the northeastern states that arrives early next week will be reluctant to retreat to the north and this could result in some snow and/or ice by mid-week in portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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Today remains colder-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, but conditions will be much less harsh than they were on Tuesday with little to no wind to speak of and plenty of sunshine. Milder weather pushes in on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, but the warm up will be short-lived. Another cold air mass arrives on Friday in the northeastern quadrant of the nation and the big shopping day will become quite windy with gusts past 35 mph to go along with below-normal temperatures. It stays cold this weekend and there remains a threat for some snow in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Sunday and/or Monday.
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One cold air outbreak reached the Mid-Atlantic region late last week and another one is arriving today on increasing NW winds and a third one will arrive at the end of the week. In fact, it is possible that the only day of the next several that is at or slightly above-normal in terms of temperatures could be Thursday, Thanksgiving Day. While the overall pattern does favor additional cold air outbreaks for the Mid-Atlantic region in coming days, the chances for snow are more elusive. There is one system, however, that could become a player in about a week’s time and it will have to be monitored over the next few days for possible snow in the Sunday/Monday time frame. Looking ahead, one index known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signals that cold air outbreaks may continue into the first half of December for the eastern half of the nation.
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Milder air is pushing into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US today on the backside of high pressure over the western Atlantic and this warm up will peak on Thursday afternoon with high temperatures not far from the 70 degree mark in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The warm up will be rather short-lived, however, as a strong cold front moves through the region on Thursday night with some rain shower activity and Friday promises to be a windy and cold day with gusts past 30 mph. After a cold, dry start to the weekend, it’ll turn a bit milder on Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, but then another strong cold front will arrive early next week and this system will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. By Tuesday, temperatures will be way below-normal and winds will be quite strong to go along with the possibility of some snow shower activity. After a couple of quieter days on Wednesday and Thursday (Turkey Day), yet another cold shot should work its way into the northeastern quadrant of the country as “high-latitude blocking” sets up to our north.
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One of the highlights of the Winter Outlook issued last month was the signal that there could be a quick start to winter in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the latter part of November and in of December. We have now reached the mid-point of November and there are some near-term signals that support the idea of a quick start to winter in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. After a couple of chilly days to start this week, it’ll turn noticeably milder on Wednesday and Thursday, but then a strong cold front will usher in another colder-than-normal air mass for the end of the week and first half of the weekend. Looking ahead, there is the potential for Thanksgiving week to become cold and stormy perhaps leading to that quick start to the winter season in this part of the nation.
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The first week of November averaged out to be quite a bit colder-than-normal in much of the eastern half of the nation, but the last couple of days have been quite pleasant for this time of the year and warmer-than-normal. It’ll remain warmer-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region into the day on Friday, but the passage of a strong cold front as the work week ends will usher in colder air for the upcoming weekend and it’ll set off an overall pattern change to colder-than-normal for much of the second half of the month. In fact, a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive early next week and it could actually be accompanied by the first snow of the season in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during Sunday night and Monday.
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Last night brought the first frost of the season to many suburban locations of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the next few nights will likely feature low temperatures at or below the freezing mark. By the second half of the weekend, a strong storm will likely be situated off the east coast and it’ll have to be monitored to determine potential impact on the eastern Mid-Atlantic, if any, come Sunday or so. Looking ahead, it looks like a warmer-than-normal stretch of weather will return to much of the eastern half of the nation next week only to be followed by colder weather returning around mid-month.
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Today’s storm in the Mid-Atlantic region is living up to its potential with strong, persistent E-SE winds, some serious coastal flooding, and occasional heavy rainfall that will produce 1-3 inches and isolated higher amounts. The added twist this afternoon and evening will be the likelihood for some strong thunderstorms which should rotate from the southwest-to-northeast and could include damaging wind gusts along with downpours.
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An active weather pattern continues today with a powerful nor’easter finally starting to pull away from the New England coastline and a vigorous upper-level low over Texas that has resulted in an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Deep South. This same upper-level low will push to the east over the next 24 hours and contribute to a windy and rainy end to the week in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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A powerful storm system has pounded the west coast during the past 24 hours or so and a strong Nor’easter is about to unfold just off the east coast. This developing Nor’easter will impact much of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later tonight into Wednesday morning with flash flooding type rains in some areas and potentially damaging wind gusts; especially, along coastal sections. The development of the east coast storm will wait for the arrival of a surface cold frontal system which will push eastward this afternoon from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This frontal system can result in some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity along the I-95 corridor from later today into early tonight following a day of near record warmth.
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