Many ingredients are coming together for a high impact type of storm system in the eastern third of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, ice, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and even high (potentially damaging) winds all on the table. The upper-level wave of energy that will be the catalyst for storm development has come ashore and it will dive to the south and east over the next couple of days. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, precipitation will push into the Mid-Atlantic region with cold, dense air in place and a period of snow and/or ice is likely in most interior sections with plain rain a likelihood along coastal areas. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is in line for accumulating snow on the front-end of this storm and this can be followed by a period of icing given the expectation that the dense, cold low-level air mass will be tough to dislodge.
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Many ingredients are coming together for a high impact type of storm system in the eastern third of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, ice, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and even high (potentially damaging) winds all on the table. The upper-level wave of energy that will be the catalyst for storm development is just now coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest and it will dive to the south and east over the next few days. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, precipitation will push into the Mid-Atlantic region with cold, dense air in place and a period of snow and/or ice is likely in most interior sections with rain a likelihood along coastal areas. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is in line for accumulating snow on the front-end of this storm and this can be followed by a period of icing given the expectation that the dense, cold low-level air mass will be tough to dislodge.
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The chances are growing for a significant winter storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later Sunday into Monday. In fact, many ingredients appear to be coming together for a storm system that can have a high impact over a large area of the eastern third of the nation from later Sunday into Monday with snow, ice, rain, coastal flooding, and even high (damaging) winds on the table. There are many details that still have to be ironed out with several days to go before this potential event and the main upper-level wave of energy is way out over the Pacific Ocean. The I-95 corridor may be right on or near the dividing line between substantial snowfall to the north and west and a mix of rain, ice and snow to the south and east.
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An Arctic cold front pushed through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Monday night and the northeastern quadrant of the nation is suffering today as a result. Temperatures are way below-normal for this time of year despite some sunshine and a stiff NW breeze is pushing wind chill values down into single digits and, in some spots, to sub-zero levels. There will be some modification in temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, but another cold air mass will arrive from the northwest at week’s end. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern appears to be evolving into one that could feature multiple storm threats for the eastern US in coming days. A first system looks like it’ll stay far enough off the east coast on Thursday and Friday to have little or no impact in the Mid-Atlantic region, but it still needs to be monitored and could skirt eastern New England. A second storm threat could come in the Sunday/Monday time frame and this one has a much better chance at having an significant impact in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night and a secondary cold front will come through on Monday evening. This secondary cold front will usher in true Arctic air for the region with its origins way up in the high latitudes and the stretch of weather from Monday night through Tuesday night will feature some of the coldest conditions we’ve experienced in quite awhile and some “face-slapping” wind chills. The “Great Lakes snow machine” has been activated with the Arctic air mass flowing over the relatively warm waters and will continue into Tuesday for downstream locations. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern is likely to evolve into one that can produce storms in the eastern US during at least a 10-day stretch beginning this weekend.
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Accumulating snow ended this morning across the Mid-Atlantic region and, in its wake, there are quite windy and cold conditions with partial sunshine. The next threat of wintry precipitation looks like it will come early in the day on Sunday, January 9th and this time, it will likely be in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet. The opportunity for icing will come on Sunday morning as milder air tries to advance northeastward into what will be a cold and dense air mass. It doesn’t take much in the way of icing to have an important impact on travel conditions. Whatever precipitation does fall on Sunday, it will certainly be followed by an Arctic outbreak for the early part of next week that will feature some very impressive cold for the northeastern quadrant of the nation.
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An upper-level disturbance is helping to generate surface low pressure in the southeastern states at mid-day and this system will intensify over the next 24 hours as it moves rather quickly to the northeast - likely reaching the waters off of eastern Maine by mid-day on Friday. Accumulating snow will spread across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later tonight and it’ll wind down on Friday morning from southwest-to-northeast. There are likely to be small-scale heavier snow bands that develop later tonight/early Friday associated with mid-level “frontogenetic forcing” and these will produce localized higher accumulation amounts. It’ll be quite cold during and after the storm and another very impressive cold air blast will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early next week.
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Today will turn a little bit milder in the Mid-Atlantic region as low-level winds increase in intensity from a southwesterly direction ahead of the next cold frontal system. That cold front will shift to our east later tonight and its passage will usher in another cold air mass for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, an upper-level disturbance will help to spawn the formation of low pressure in the southeastern states and this system will intensify as it moves fairly quickly to the northeast reaching the waters off of Maine by mid-day Friday. Some accumulating snow will spread across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Thursday night and it’ll likely come to a quick end early Friday resulting in a moderate snowfall for the region. Temperatures are likely to drop to the teens on Friday night all along the I-95 corridor in the wake of the low pressure system and another cold air blast will arrive early next week into the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The month of January got off to a very mild start in the Mid-Atlantic region this past weekend, but a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday night changed that around quite dramatically by Monday. In addition to the influx of the cold air mass, significant snow fell across parts of the region from the DC metro area to the Delmarva Peninsula to the Jersey Shore, but there was a sharp cutoff on the northern fringes with little or no snow at all in the Philly and NYC metro regions. The next threat of accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic region comes on Thursday night and early Friday as low pressure pushes to near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Perhaps a bigger story, however, is the cold that appears to be on the way. An impressive cold shot will likely accompany and follow this late week system into the Mid-Atlantic region and then another cold blast is destined to arrive early next week. The blast early next week could turn out be a doozy with “single-digit” type cold…get ready for those heating bills.
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A new week, a new month, a new year, and a new weather pattern for the eastern US as winter has finally arrived. A significant snowfall continues at this hour in the region from DC-to-the-Delmarva Peninsula-to-southern New Jersey and the snow will wind down later this afternoon from west-to-east. Some snow is now being reported at Philly Airport, but for the most part, today’s storm will bypass the Philly and NYC metro regions as it slides just to their south and east. In addition to very poor road conditions in the hard hit areas, power outages have become an increasing problem given the strong winds and heavy, wet snowfall. Another threat for accumulating snow is likely to come in the Thursday night/early Friday time period and that threat could be for a more widespread part of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.
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