The combination of a very humid air mass and an impulse in the upper atmosphere drifting in this direction will likely result in numerous afternoon and evening showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Given the high moisture levels and the ”lift” in the atmosphere that is expected later today, any PM shower or thunderstorm can dump a lot of rainfall in a short period of time with localized flooding a possibility. After a calmer day on Tuesday, the mid and late week will feature the worst stretch of heat and humidity so far this summer with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90’s along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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We have now reached the mid-point of the month of July and, so far, tropical activity has been below-normal in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, activity across the northern hemisphere as a whole has been below-normal as measured by a metric known as the “accumulated cyclone energy” or ACE. There are signs, however, that at least the Atlantic Basin will see a ramp up in action during the next several weeks.
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An active weather pattern continues at mid-week in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions with persistent northwesterly flow aloft on the outer perimeter of a strong high pressure system that is centered over the southern states. This “ring of fire” on the periphery of the high pressure system continues to feature batches of showers and thunderstorms rotating around in its northeastern quadrant from northwest-to-southeast. The next upstream batch of showers and thunderstorms is now pushing through the Ohio Valley and its remnants will enhance the chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms later today and tonight likely in the region from DC-to-Philly.
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This past Father’s Day weekend featured spectacular weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with comfortable temperatures for the middle of June and low humidity values. Indeed, the spring season as a whole has seen numerous cool air masses push into this part of the nation from Canada moving along in a general northwest-to-southeast fashion. In fact, almost all areas across the northern US have experienced near normal to below-normal temperatures back to the beginning of 2022. It appears that these cool blasts from Canada will continue across the northern states next week and beyond into at least the first part of the month of July.
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A couple of cold fronts will usher in a spectacular air mass for this time of year to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes just in time for the upcoming Father’s Day weekend. There will be some active weather, however, before we get to that point with the threat of showers and strong thunderstorms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning and then again on Thursday evening in association with an initial cold frontal system. In addition, there can be another shower or thunderstorm on Friday as a secondary cold front arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong high pressure will then take control of the weather for the weekend…a system that had its origins up in northern Canada. Elsewhere, intense heat will continue to affect the region from the south-central states-to-the Midwest-to-the Southeast US over the next several days and some of this hot air will try to make an advance into the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.
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Today has been an active weather day in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be more shower and thunderstorm activity later in the week with the arrival of the next cold front. The timing of the next cold front could turn out to be perfect as it likely clears the way for a very nice June weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with very comfortable temperatures for this time of year. Looking ahead, an intense heat wave is likely to develop during the first half of next week from the nation’s mid-section to the southeastern states and some of this heat may expand to the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week.
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Highs temperatures on Friday are likely to reach 100 degrees in Dallas, Texas and this could begin an impressive string of days at or above the century mark in that particular location. High pressure ridging has been quite strong recently in the region from California-to-Texas and it will intensify over the next few days and then build eastward next week all the way to the Southeast US coastline. It is not unprecedented to see this kind of June heat in Texas or other parts of the southern states and Dallas will have a tough time matching the sustained and extreme heat of the summer of 1980.
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An active weather pattern continues across the nation with multiple upper-level disturbances moving along in a west-to-east fashion and this is resulting in numerous rain threats for the Mid-Atlantic region. One such upper-level disturbance will help set off the formation of a low pressure system today over the Upper Midwest and this system will intensify later tonight over the Mid-Atlantic region enhancing the chance here for some heavy rainfall, flash-flooding, and potentially strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin officially got underway on June 1st and there is a growing threat for Florida from a system now located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of showers and thunderstorms has better organized over the last 24 hours or so over the northwest Caribbean as atmospheric conditions are becoming more and more favorable for intensification. This system is likely to become the first named storm of the 2022 season (would be “Alex”) and is increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to western Cuba, central and southern Florida including the Keys, and to the Bahama Island chain.
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The passage of a back door cool front has brought relief today to the New York City metro region, New Jersey and it’ll turn out to be a bit better in the Philly area as well as easterly low-level winds have developed during the past few hours. Unfortunately, there will be no relief today in the DC metro region with highs likely to again be in the 90’s. This weak frontal boundary zone and another front will cause unsettled weather in the Mid-Atlantic from later today through tomorrow night that will include the chance for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. High pressure will take back control at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice across the region.
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