The month of October has gotten off to a very chilly start in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be another chilly air mass headed this way for the upcoming weekend. In fact, the lowest temperature readings of the season so far could come early Sunday morning, but this will very likely not be the low point of the month. Additional chilly air outbreaks are destined to move from central Canada and into the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of weeks and these could very well have an Arctic connection.
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The noontime temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor were especially low for this time of year and several spots may indeed set “record low maximum” temperatures for the date. Stubborn surface low pressure continues to spin near the Mid-Atlantic coastline at mid-day and it is supported by a strong upper-level low. As a result, winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere have been strong and persistent from a north-northeast direction contributing to the unusual chill. Looking ahead, it looks like additional very chilly air masses are headed to the Great Lakes, Midwest and northeastern quadrant of the country in coming days and weeks with the next shot arriving for the upcoming weekend.
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Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to impact the Mid-Atlantic region into the middle part of the week with rain, wind and chilly conditions along with coastal flooding. This system which is connected to a post-tropical Ian will tend to drift away from the coast later today only to return on Tuesday and this will extend the nasty weather into early Wednesday. An upper-level trough to our northwest will then be able to finally kick this system out-to-sea by Thursday ahead of the next cool front that ushers in another cool air mass for the weekend.
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Ian has returned to hurricane status on Thursday evening over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the western Atlantic Ocean. It is likely to make another landfall as a hurricane…this time in South Carolina and likely near Charleston at mid-day. Rain from Ian’s remains will push northward into the Mid-Atlantic region late tomorrow and continue into the weekend and some of the rain will be heavy at times along with gusty winds.
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In a storm that will rival the great hurricane of 1921 for its impact on west-central Florida, Hurricane Ian has climbed to category 4 (“major”) status and will unfortunately likely have a devastating impact on the state from today into Thursday. Although there is some wind shear in the vicinity of the storm, Hurricane Ian is large, powerful, and a slow-mover which will exacerbate the effects of torrential rain, powerful winds and a dangerous storm surge on the western side. The hurricane will cross central Florida and then ride up just off the northeast Florida coastline and likely return as a tropical storm somewhere near the Georgia/South Carolina later Friday. The remnant heavy rain and strong winds of Ian will push up through the eastern US late this week and this weekend with impacts all the way to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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After pounding Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Monday, Hurricane Fiona has intensified into the season’s first “major” hurricane with category 3 classification and can attain category 4 status over the next few days as it gradually turns to the northeast. On this track, Hurricane Fiona will come close to Bermuda by early Friday and become increasingly influenced by an amplifying upper-level ridge over the northeastern US. This upper-level trough will result in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and ultimately could cause Fiona to pull back towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces this weekend with the potential of a direct impact. Meanwhile, another tropical system is organizing east of the Windward Islands and it has a chance of intensifying over the warm Caribbean Sea during the next several days and ultimately, could become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico region.
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Hurricane Fiona is crossing over the eastern side of Hispaniola this morning and is pounding away at the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico with heavy rainfall, flash flooding and powerful winds. After moving away from land, Fiona will gradually make a turn during the next few days from its current northwest movement to north and then to the northeast ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough of low pressure that will build over the northeastern part of the nation. Fiona is likely to become the season’s first “major” hurricane during the next couple of days while out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic Ocean. The upper-level trough that will intensify over the northeastern states will help to keep Fiona away from the US east coast and will result in an outbreak of cool air late this week in the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US - the coolest air mass so far this season.
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We have reached the mid-point of September and this is climatologically-speaking right around the peak time of the Atlantic Basin tropical season. True to form, there is a now a tropical storm named “Fiona” over the central Atlantic and it is likely to impact the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later this weekend. Beyond that, it is somewhat unclear as to where Fiona will travel with one scenario featuring a continued movement to the west and towards the Gulf of Mexico and a second possibility with a “curvature to the north” over the Bahamas and then the western Atlantic off the eastern seaboard.
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The combination of a vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure and an approaching cold front is setting off the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these can result in heavy rainfall from this afternoon into later tonight. The showers and storms can reach the DC and Philly metro regions anytime after 2 pm and then during the late afternoon hours in the NYC metro region and the threat in all places will continue into late evening. The front pushes through the region later tomorrow setting the stage for some nice weather on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
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Hurricane Kay has been downgraded to tropical storm status in the overnight hours as it moves roughly parallel to the northwestern coast of Baja California and it will push farther away and continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. However, despite the weakening and the push away from the coast, Tropical Storm Kay will combine with strong high pressure to the north to generate some significant rain and wind across southern California today, tonight and tomorrow. In fact, bands of rain can produce as much as 6 inches in some spots with flash flooding and wind gusts across southern California can reach 60+ mph during this event.
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