Tropical Storm Lee is on the door step of “category 1” hurricane classification and all indications are that it will continue to intensify and reach “major” hurricane status by the weekend. In fact, the expected significant intensification of Lee could result in the storm climbing all the way to “category 5” classification sometime this weekend or early next week. The overall environment becomes very favorable for the strengthening of Lee with a relaxation of wind shear and a west-to-northwest trek over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic. By early next week, the west-to-northwest path of Lee could change to a northerly direction which would reduce the chances of a direct impact on the US east coast. However, two systems that will likely dictate the ultimate storm track of Lee are many days away from even forming. They include an upper-level trough that may form over the Ohio valley/eastern US and upper-level ridge that may intensify over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic. It is simply too early to say how this upper air pattern will unfold; therefore, too early to say if Lee can indeed directly impact the US east coast.
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A tropical wave that pushed off of Africa’s west coast several days ago has officially become tropical depression #13 in the Atlantic Ocean. This system is likely to reach named tropical storm status within 24 hours or so (will be named Lee) and very well could intensify to “major” hurricane status by the upcoming weekend. The overall environment will become increasingly conducive for intensification of the soon-to-be named tropical system in coming days as it continues on a long track across the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear will relax as an upper-level ridge builds nearby and it’ll move over very warm waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Looking ahead, it appears this system may push to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles - avoiding the Caribbean Sea - and then head on a course towards the US east coast as a “major” hurricane. Whether or not this developing tropical storm ever reaches the US east coast is simply too early to call.
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Most would agree that the timing couldn’t be any better. In what has been an overall very comfortable summer in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, the traditional end to the season will feature strong high pressure in control leading to an extended stretch of dry weather to include the Labor Day holiday weekend. Temperatures will start off very comfortable for the first part of this period; however, they’ll climb to very warm levels by the early part of next week.
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Hurricane Idalia continues to intensify today as it encounters more favorable environmental conditions with diminished wind shear and it is likely to attain “major” classification of category 3 or higher before making landfall early tomorrow along Florida’s Gulf coast. Hurricane Idalia will then turn northeast, weaken slowly, and push towards the Carolina coastline as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure ridging aloft to its west and north. As a result of the developing widespread upper-level ridge, Idalia will likely meander over the western Atlantic Ocean for several days and there is even an outside chance that it could loop back around to revisit Florida in a weakened state about a week from now. Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin maintains status as a category 4 “major” system. It will pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday bringing tropical storm conditions to the island. After that, Hurricane Franklin will push northeastward to the open waters of the North Atlantic as southwesterly flow ahead of an incoming upper-level trough steers it in that direction.
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Franklin has climbed to category 4 “major” hurricane status and will fortunately spend its time in the foreseeable future over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. While it does bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda early Wednesday, a deep trough moving off the NE US coastline will help to steer it northeastward and out to the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, “Idalia” has reached strong tropical storm status today and is knocking on the doorstep of being declared a full-fledged hurricane. Tropical Storm Idalia will spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, begin an intensification process, and likely reach the Gulf coast region of Florida early Wednesday to the north of the Tampa Bay region.
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A lot is going on in the world of weather highlighted by multiple tropical systems, an intense heat wave with very high humidity levels anchored by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging, and very active weather in the “ring of fire” around the outer perimeter of that same high pressure system. On the tropical scene, Tropical Storm Franklin is pounding away today at Haiti and the Dominican Republic and once it bypasses this high-terrain Caribbean island of Hispaniola into the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic, it will intensify into a hurricane with a decent chance of attaining “major” categorization of 3 or higher. Meanwhile, the moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Harold which pounded southern Texas earlier this week will douse the Four Corner states during the next couple of days. Finally, there is the chance that a tropical systems forms this weekend in Caribbean Sea and it could move north next week and impact portions of the Southeast US.
Elsewhere, very strong ridging of high pressure over the nation’s midsection is anchoring an intense heat wave from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf coast. This heat wave is made worse by very high humidity levels that have featured dew points as high as 80 degrees in some spots. On the outer perimeter of this very strong high pressure ridge is a region that I like to refer to as the “ring of fire”, there is some very active weather that is bringing heavy showers and strong thunderstorms to the eastern Great Lakes. This “ring of fire” activity will spread to the south and east bringing heavy showers and strong thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the next couple of days.
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Hilary likely reached its peak in strength during the overnight hours as a category 4 “major” hurricane and it is about to enter into a weakening phase as it it crosses over colder waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Despite the upcoming weakening phase, the remnants of Hilary will have a significant impact on California, Nevada and western Arizona from this weekend into early next week. The widespread moisture field associated with Hilary is then likely to continue pushing northward ultimately reaching the states of Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
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We have entered the second half of August and this is typically when tropical activity ramps up in the Atlantic Basin. Indeed, there are a couple of impressive waves to watch in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and there may be a threat to deal with in the eastern US/Gulf of Mexico by the last week of August; however, of more immediate concern is the current activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is a growing chance that significant moisture from a tropical system makes its way into the Southwest US by later this weekend and early next week - and this includes a very real threat for excessive rainfall across southern California. In addition, winds may become quite high depending on the ultimate storm track that this developing tropical system undertakes.
Elsewhere, a building ridge of high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere will result in an intensifying heat wave by this weekend across the central states and it is likely to expand to the Great Lakes and Midwest. While the heat may ultimately expand all the way into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, this would be just a one or two day affair and the overall weather pattern for the northeastern states remains quite favorable for very comfortable air masses to reach this area from central Canada.
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Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms rocked the Mid-Atlantic region last Monday and a somewhat similar overall weather pattern can bring a repeat performance from late today into Tuesday. In a situation like a week ago, several ingredients will come together in the atmosphere that will raise the chance for heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms which can produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes. These ingredients include a vigorous upper-level low that is currently pushing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley, copious amounts of available moisture, strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, and a strong surface cool front that ultimately crosses the Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday. The time period for the potential heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms will be from late today into Tuesday night.
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A widespread severe wind event rocked the Mid-Atlantic region this past Monday and a key ingredient was a vigorous wave of low pressure aloft that crossed the Great Lakes on a path towards the northern Mid-Atlantic. Other ingredients included multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere, a strong surface cool front, and an influx of very moist air from the southeastern states on the front side of the front. A similar overall weather pattern may repeat itself from later Monday into Monday night. While still several days away, many of these same factors may indeed come together early next week and the result can be another round of heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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