Since the middle of last week, two separate tropical systems attained tropical storm status adding to the year’s total number of named storms to 15 in the Atlantic Basin. Neither one of these most recent tropical storms, Nadine and Oscar, are a threat to the US mainland as the first one has already dissipated and the second is destined to push out over the open waters of the western Atlantic Ocean. There are signs, however, that tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin may be very well get boosted again as we push into the first half of November.
Read More
October can be a dry month in the Northeast US with the usual overall cooling down of the atmosphere, but this one has been pretty ridiculous. While tropical moisture has inundated the Tennessee Valley/Appalachians and Southeast US during the past couple of weeks, nary a drop has fallen in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and there is not much reason for hope in the next week or so. Perhaps...just perhaps...there may be some decent rainfall here around the end of the month as a strong cold frontal system heads this way from central Canada.
Read More
Last week, it was the northern lights and now - for another astronomical treat - a comet should be visible to the naked eye during the next week to ten days or so in the western sky after sunset. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS has now exited the sun’s glare having come closest to the sun in late September. It made its closest approach to Earth this past Saturday, October 11th, passing about 44 million miles away. It is now rising a little bit higher each night in the western sky and remaining visible for a little bit longer period; however, it is also going to lose some its brightness with each passing day.
Read More
Hurricane Milton is a high-end category 4 storm system as of mid-morning as it closes in on the west-central Gulf coast of Florida. Some weakening is quite likely today as Hurricane Milton encounters increased vertical wind shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and some dry air intrusion on its western side. However, Hurricane Milton should make landfall later tonight somewhere near Tampa Bay as a “major” hurricane with a significant storm surge expected as high as 10-15 feet in some areas. After landfall, Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later tomorrow out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Read More
Hurricane Milton intensified rapidly on Monday reaching category 5 status with maximum sustained winds as high as 180 mph and a central pressure that dropped all the way down to 897 millibars (26.44 inches). There has been some weakening in the overnight hours and during the early hours of Tuesday with the latest measurements featuring maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (category 4) and the central pressure of Milton has risen more than 30 millibars since the low point on Monday of 929 millibars (27.43 inches). Hurricane Milton will gradually take a turn to the northeast during the next 12-24 hours and likely make a landfall on Wednesday night somewhere near the Tampa Bay region of Florida’s Gulf coast. After landfall, Hurricane Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later Thursday out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Read More
Hurricane Milton has intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is now classified as a strong category 4 “major” hurricane...just on the doorstep of a category 5 designation. Given the very favorable environmental conditions, Hurricane Milton is likely to reach category 5 status later today as it heads slowly to the east-southeast. Hurricane Milton is expected to turn to the northeast later tomorrow which would bring the system to Florida’s Gulf coast region by later Wednesday...likely right near or just to the north of Tampa Bay. There can be some weakening of Hurricane Milton in the hours before landfall due to some “late in the game” dry air intrusion; however, landfall as a “major” would still be quite possible during the PM hours on Wednesday. With a possible landfall near or just to the north of Tampa Bay, storm surge in the bay region would be significant...perhaps as high 8-12 feet. After landfall, Hurricane Milton is likely to cross over the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane, and then exit off the east coast on Thursday to the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic.
Read More
Another “major” hurricane may be headed towards Florida’s Gulf coast with a possible mid-week landfall right near the Tampa Bay region. “Milton” became a named tropical storm on Saturday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to attain hurricane status by later Sunday as it begins a move to the east. Given the generally favorable environmental conditions, Milton could then become a “major” hurricane as early as Monday as it continues on a trek towards Florida’s west coast.
Read More
Hurricane Helene made landfall on Thursday night as a category 4 “major” hurricane near Florida’s Gulf coast town of Perry and then pushed north through Georgia before grinding to a halt over the Tennessee Valley. Tremendous rainfall fell over the southern Appalachians as the result of strong and persistent upsloping winds associated with Hurricane Helene with as much as two feet in some spots and flooding was extreme. The month of September comes to an end with plenty of tropical activity to monitor in the Atlantic Basin and another system is destined for the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend or early part of next week. The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin has now resulted in 11 named tropical storms with four hurricanes having made landfall in the US, and there certainly may be other opportunities to add onto those numbers.
Read More
Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a strong category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher and category 4 designation is still on the table. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region as a “major” with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and severe flash flooding.
By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
Read More
Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region – likely as a “major” – with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and serious flash flooding.
By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
Read More
