Heat and humidity will increase today in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures should reach well into the 90’s on Friday along the I-95 corridor. It stays very warm and humid this weekend and through the first half of next week. In terms of prospects for rain, an approaching frontal system late tomorrow will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms; especially, on the NW side of I-95. This front stalls out this weekend nearby and the result will be the threat of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time.
Looking ahead, the pattern changes noticeably by later next week across the northeastern states with an upper-level trough of low pressure intensifying over southeastern Canada. Comfortable air is likely to drop south and east from Canada into the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region late next week and the first several days of August might be rather pleasant. It is at this time that conditions might change in the tropical Atlantic Ocean which can lead to a ramp up in activity by the middle of the new month and a teleconnection index (MJO) supports this notion.
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The last few days have been relatively quiet in the Mid-Atlantic region with dry and warm conditions dominating the scene. Heat and humidity will build up later in the week and an approaching frontal system could lead to showers and thunderstorms by Friday night. That front will stall-out nearby this weekend and likely result in a shower and thunderstorm threat on both weekend days.
The upper-level pattern next week will feature strong high pressure ridging over the south-central states and a northwest flow of air from the Great Lakes to the Northeast US. This kind of pattern sometimes produces complexes of thunderstorms that travel in the northwest flow from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US...something to monitor during the next several days. Looking ahead, there are signs that a strong upper-level trough may become positioned over southeastern Canada at the end of next week potentially bringing a pleasant start to the month of August.
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The combination of a tropical air mass, a stalled-out frontal boundary zone, and an upper-level disturbance will “re-ignite” the atmosphere this afternoon and the result is very likely to be yet another round of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms for much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. With the likelihood of flooding downpours and the well saturated grounds, flash flood watches have been issued throughout the Mid-Atlantic region by the National Weather Service. This stalled-out front system will turn around by tomorrow and push to the north as a warm front and the heat and humidity should reach a peak in the afternoon with highs up in the 90’s in many places. A cold front then pushes through the northern Mid-Atlantic region later Thursday night into early Friday and it then stalls out across the southern Mid-Atlantic later in the day. As a result, the corridor from Philly to New York City will see a big break in the humidity on Friday, Friday night, and much of Saturday, but the stalled-out front will keep it unsettled and moderately humid in and around the DC metro area. The humidity does build back up again throughout the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the weekend and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will also make a return.
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The combination of a tropical air mass, a slow-moving surface cold front, and an upper-level disturbance raises the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. And, as has been the case quite often in recent days, some of the storms can be strong-to-severe and flooding downpours are on the table with a few inches possible in some spots in a short period of time. While flash-flooding is the greatest concern in this scenario, isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible later today associated with “downburst-type” thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, while the threat of showers and thunderstorms may diminish on Tuesday, it is likely to rise again at mid-week as a stalled-out frontal system makes a turnaround and heads back to the north as a warm front.
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In general, it is much the same story as yesterday in the Mid-Atlantic region as far as the weather is concerned with the chance of late afternoon and early evening strong-to-severe thunderstorms along with possible flooding downpours. One minor difference from yesterday will be perhaps a bit later arrival time for the storms in the I-95 corridor as we’re looking at the late afternoon or early evening hours in many spots. Like yesterday, the ingredients are there for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity and possible downpours including an upper-level trough, a slow-moving surface frontal system, and a humid air mass. The unsettled weather pattern continues from tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms and much of next week looks unsettled as well.
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The combination of an upper-level trough, a slow-moving surface frontal system, and an extremely humid air mass will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight and there can be a repeat performance later tomorrow. Any shower or thunderstorm in this tropical air mass can produce flooding rainfall given the well saturated nature of the grounds in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures today have soared to 90+ degrees all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the high humidity is making for a very uncomfortable day. The unsettled weather pattern continues from Thursday into Sunday with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.
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A very unsettled stretch of weather is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region with a shot of showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis right into the upcoming weekend. The rainfall during the next few days will be enhanced by a tropical air mass that pushed northward this weekend along with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal. In addition, a slow-moving upper-level trough of low pressure now centered over the Great Lakes will enhance upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region between now and mid-week. As a result, tropical downpours are possible during each of the next few days which can bring flash-flooding conditions to portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with today’s greatest concern centered around the Chesapeake Bay region. Any thunderstorm from later today into the mid-week can reach strong-to-severe levels with perhaps the highest risk of severe weather coming on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
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There was a break in the action on Sunday across the northern Mid-Atlantic region, but strong thunderstorms hit many spots across southern sections to close out the last weekend of June. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will become quite high throughout the entire Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight, and this threat will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night...both time periods will come with the risk of strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The combination of a stationary front that turns around later today and pushes northward as a warm front, and the approach of a cold front later tomorrow will keep it unsettled around here, and any thunderstorm on either day can produce torrential rainfall and damaging wind gusts. High pressure pushes in for the mid-week and then a weak cold front comes through late Thursday paving the way for a very nice Independence Day holiday on Friday featuring plenty of sunshine in the Mid-Atlantic region, lower humidity levels, and comfortably warm conditions.
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Today will feature high heat and humidity once again in the Mid-Atlantic region and high temperature records for the date are likely to be set in many locations. There is relief on the way, however, thanks to a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England during the next couple of days. Temperatures will be much reduced in the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon as an ocean flow of air (east-to-northwest winds) develops following the passage of the back door cool front. The transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the cool down at the end of the week will come with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe.
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There were some records tied or broken on Monday and a few spots reached the century mark; however, the peak of this current hot spell comes today with numerous 100-degree readings likely all along the DC-to-Boston corridor. In fact, it is possible that 100-degree readings are experienced later today in each state all the way from Maine-to-Florida. In Philadelphia on Monday, temperatures reached 99 degrees which broke the record for the date set just one year ago, and 100 degrees is certainly on the table for this afternoon which would be the first at “PHL” since July of 2012.
There is relief in sight for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and, in some cases, there can be a dramatic drop in temperatures following the passage of a back door cool front. The overall weather pattern becomes unsettled as well with the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning on Wednesday afternoon and then increasing on Thursday...any thunderstorm that forms on either day can be strong-to-severe. Looking ahead to next week, overall temperatures look quite reasonable for much of the eastern half of the nation as the calendar transitions from June to July.
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