While the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains active, an Arctic blast continues to bring record-breaking cold to portions of the western and central US as well as some unusual early season accumulating snow and ice. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm “Zeta” is now entering the Gulf of Mexico after a brief encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and it is quite likely to return to hurricane status (category 1) later today and then make a landfall later tomorrow in southeastern Louisiana. The remnants of “Zeta” will combine with a strong upper-level low now over the Southwest US to generate a significant rain event in the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from Thursday into early Friday. On Friday, enough cold air will get wrapped into the powerful system to cause a changeover to snow to result in the first accumulating snows of the season for portions of the Northeast US. All of this will be followed by a cold Halloween on Saturday with temperatures some fifteen degrees below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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While the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains active, an Arctic blast has brought record-breaking cold to portions of the western and central US as well as some unusual early season accumulating snow. In fact, the accumulating snow will take place all the way down to New Mexico and Texas over the next 48 hours or so with some spots likely receiving a foot or more. Meanwhile, the remains of Tropical Storm “Zeta” are likely to produce significant rainfall across the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from Thursday into Friday after making a mid-week landfall in the central Gulf coastal region. By later Friday, some of the cold air from this Arctic Blast will makes its way into the Northeast US and it could result in a changeover to snow in interior, higher elevation locations as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm “Zeta” passes through the region.
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It has already been quite cold for this time of year across much of the interior Northwest and Northern Plains with significant accumulating snow in many areas in recent days and the worse may be yet to come. An Arctic blast will send temperatures plunging over the next few days all the way down to the southwestern US and southern Plains and accumulating snow can fall all the way down to states like Texas and New Mexico. In addition, numerous record low temperatures are likely to fall from the Northern Rockies to the southern Plains during this unusual late October cold wave. Meanwhile, in the tropics, Hurricane “Epsilon” will turn to the northeast and accelerate this weekend out over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Another tropical system will intensify over the northwest Caribbean Sea – likely reaching tropical storm status this weekend – and then it could head towards the central Gulf coastal region by the middle of next week.
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This is the time of the year in which summer is trying to hold on at the same time winter is trying to make a statement that cold and snow is on the way. Indeed, the next week to ten days will feature tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin – Tropical Storm “Epsilon” has now formed – at the same time cold air dominates the scene from the interior Northwest to the Upper Midwest with significant accumulating snow in many parts of the northern and central US.
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Hurricane “Delta” is currently a category 3 “major” hurricane on its way for a landfall in southwestern Louisiana early this evening. There is a chance for some weakening of Hurricane “Delta” in the last few hours before landfall – perhaps from a category 3 to a category 2 storm – as it will push over cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, Hurricane “Delta” will weaken quickly; however, its remnants will bring some significant rainfall to the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and as far north and east as the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday into Monday.
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Hurricane “Delta” pounded the northeastern part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula yesterday morning and its encounter with the land mass weakened the tropical cyclone from a category 4 “major” storm to a category 1. Since then, Hurricane “Delta” has moved out over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico into an area with more favorable atmospheric conditions and has re-intensified into category 2 status with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. In this favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and deep moisture, Hurricane “Delta” could return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) as it churns towards a likely landfall late Friday in the southwestern part of Louisiana. After landfall, Hurricane “Delta” will weaken quickly, but its remnants will bring some significant rainfall to the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and as far north and east as the Mid-Atlantic region by the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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Hurricane “Delta” pounded the northeastern part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this morning as a category 2 storm and is now entering the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. After its bump into with the Yucatan Peninsula, Hurricane “Delta” will encounter favorable conditions for intensification as it churns northwest over the still warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico in an environment with low wind shear and high moisture content. As such, Hurricane “Delta” is likely to re-intensify into “major” hurricane status as it heads on a path towards the north-central Gulf coast - and perhaps right to the same region that experienced the landfall of Hurricane Laura earlier this tropical season. After landfall likely on Friday, the remains of Hurricane “Delta” are then likely to push to the north and east bringing significant rainfall to the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and perhaps to the Mid-Atlantic region late in the upcoming weekend.
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All systems are go for Hurricane “Delta” as it has undergone rapid intensification in the last 24 hours and will very likely reach at least category 4 “major” hurricane status over the next 12-24 hours. During the past 24 hours, Hurricane “Delta” has seen its maximum sustained winds increase by 70 mph – now at 110 mph – which represents the fastest October intensification of a tropical cyclone since “Wilma” of 2005. Hurricane “Delta” is headed towards the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in coming days – very likely as a category 4+ storm. After that, “Delta” may make a direct impact on the north-central Gulf coastal region (e.g., southern Louisiana) by late Friday or so and then take a turn to the north and east once inland with significant rainfall in the Deep South and Tennessee Valley – perhaps even bringing some late weekend rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A slow-moving cold front will produce rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into early Wednesday and some of the rain will be heavy at times and embedded strong thunderstorms are possible. It’ll turn a little cooler at mid-week, but a second cold front will bring an even cooler air into the eastern states for the upcoming weekend. As the central and eastern states experience significant rainfall and an unfolding colder weather pattern, the western states will get hotter and stay dry and this will enhance the wildfire threat.
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It looks like September will end and October will begin with an unusually cold air mass in much of the central and eastern US as a deep upper-level trough forms overhead. There may be two different cold frontal systems that will produce a “step-down” to the colder-than-normal conditions with the first pushing through early in the week and the second around mid-week. Once established, it looks like the colder-than-normal conditions will last right into the first full weekend of October. On the tropical scene, the Atlantic Basin has actually begun a quiet period with no activity currently over the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. This quiet stretch is very likely only a temporary phenomenon as October will no doubt feature more tropical activity in these still quite warm water regions of the Atlantic Basin.
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