There have been many frontal passages in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic region that have produced showers and thunderstorms and, in some cases, severe weather. While these showers and thunderstorms have often been quite “numerous” to the south of the PA/MD border, they have usually been “isolated-to-scattered” across Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York City. These “hit or miss” variety showers and thunderstorms are frustrating many residents to the north of the PA/MD border with lawns now beginning to turn brown in many areas. There will be additional chances of showers and thunderstorms in coming days, but still no guarantees; especially, to those north of the Mason-Dixon Line.
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The first extended heat wave of the summer in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will break today with the arrival of a frontal system that is currently producing showers and embedded thunderstorms in upstate Pennsylvania. The chance of showers will increase in the I-95 corridor by the early-to-mid afternoon and while not every location will get hit, a strong-to-severe thunderstorm is possible right into the late evening hours. Much more comfortable conditions will take place on Tuesday with below-normal temperatures and another cooler-than-normal air mass is destined to come this way for the upcoming weekend. The past weekend featured some excessive heat in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a run to the 100 degree mark on both days.
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The Mid-Atlantic region has enjoyed a relatively normal summer so far with respect to overall temperatures featuring close-to-normal readings in the month of June and also for the first few weeks of July. We are now, however, in an extended stretch of hot and humid weather that will last right through the upcoming weekend and it looks like the heat will peak this weekend. In fact, high temperatures on Sunday afternoon could flirt with the 100 degree mark in some spots ahead of a cool front that should bring some relief by Tuesday and Wednesday.
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The combination of a very humid air mass and an impulse in the upper atmosphere drifting in this direction will likely result in numerous afternoon and evening showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Given the high moisture levels and the ”lift” in the atmosphere that is expected later today, any PM shower or thunderstorm can dump a lot of rainfall in a short period of time with localized flooding a possibility. After a calmer day on Tuesday, the mid and late week will feature the worst stretch of heat and humidity so far this summer with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90’s along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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We have now reached the mid-point of the month of July and, so far, tropical activity has been below-normal in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, activity across the northern hemisphere as a whole has been below-normal as measured by a metric known as the “accumulated cyclone energy” or ACE. There are signs, however, that at least the Atlantic Basin will see a ramp up in action during the next several weeks.
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An active weather pattern continues at mid-week in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions with persistent northwesterly flow aloft on the outer perimeter of a strong high pressure system that is centered over the southern states. This “ring of fire” on the periphery of the high pressure system continues to feature batches of showers and thunderstorms rotating around in its northeastern quadrant from northwest-to-southeast. The next upstream batch of showers and thunderstorms is now pushing through the Ohio Valley and its remnants will enhance the chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms later today and tonight likely in the region from DC-to-Philly.
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This past Father’s Day weekend featured spectacular weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with comfortable temperatures for the middle of June and low humidity values. Indeed, the spring season as a whole has seen numerous cool air masses push into this part of the nation from Canada moving along in a general northwest-to-southeast fashion. In fact, almost all areas across the northern US have experienced near normal to below-normal temperatures back to the beginning of 2022. It appears that these cool blasts from Canada will continue across the northern states next week and beyond into at least the first part of the month of July.
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A couple of cold fronts will usher in a spectacular air mass for this time of year to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes just in time for the upcoming Father’s Day weekend. There will be some active weather, however, before we get to that point with the threat of showers and strong thunderstorms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning and then again on Thursday evening in association with an initial cold frontal system. In addition, there can be another shower or thunderstorm on Friday as a secondary cold front arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong high pressure will then take control of the weather for the weekend…a system that had its origins up in northern Canada. Elsewhere, intense heat will continue to affect the region from the south-central states-to-the Midwest-to-the Southeast US over the next several days and some of this hot air will try to make an advance into the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.
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Today has been an active weather day in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be more shower and thunderstorm activity later in the week with the arrival of the next cold front. The timing of the next cold front could turn out to be perfect as it likely clears the way for a very nice June weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with very comfortable temperatures for this time of year. Looking ahead, an intense heat wave is likely to develop during the first half of next week from the nation’s mid-section to the southeastern states and some of this heat may expand to the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week.
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Highs temperatures on Friday are likely to reach 100 degrees in Dallas, Texas and this could begin an impressive string of days at or above the century mark in that particular location. High pressure ridging has been quite strong recently in the region from California-to-Texas and it will intensify over the next few days and then build eastward next week all the way to the Southeast US coastline. It is not unprecedented to see this kind of June heat in Texas or other parts of the southern states and Dallas will have a tough time matching the sustained and extreme heat of the summer of 1980.
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