The risk is high today for a severe weather outbreak across the Tennessee Valley, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-South and this threat includes the possibility of multiple strong (EF-3+) tornadoes. Numerous ingredients are coming together to result in a widespread severe weather outbreak later today and tonight including strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, a clash of air masses with cold, dry air to the north and west and warm, humid air to the east and south, and a strong surface low pressure system with its attendant cold front. In addition to the severe weather, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way for much of this same part of the nation from later today through the first half of the weekend with widespread flooding a serious concern.
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An on-going active weather pattern will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight across the middle of the country and there can be isolated tornadoes as well. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will become enhanced across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley and, this time, multiple strong tornadoes will be on the table. In this same part of the nation, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way from later tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with widespread serious flooding a real concern.
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Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are a threat later today and tonight across much of the eastern US including in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a strong cold front pushes eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard. This same frontal system resulted in numerous damaging wind gusts on Sunday across the Midwest/Mississippi Valley with a few tornadoes reported there as well and that same part of the nation will likely have a repeat performance of severe weather on Wednesday. In fact, numerous severe weather outbreaks are on the table for the month of April largely as the result of a recent stratospheric warming event which, in turn, enhances the likelihood for additional cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern states setting up “battle zone” regions. Finally, we’ll revisit the passage of a “back door” cold front this weekend that impacted the northeastern states and, in some locations, there were record-breaking temperature swings.
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Any long-time weather forecaster in the northeastern part of the nation knows quite well to be fearful of the “back door” cool front this time of year as it can make a forecast of summer-like temperatures look rather foolish with winter-like reality instead. Indeed, the “back door” cool front is rather common in the northeastern part of the US during the months of March and April, and it can mean the difference of 30-40 degrees over a short distance, and the difference between summer and winter weather conditions over a short period of time.
In fact, there can be winter-like temperatures this Saturday in Boston, Massachusetts while a summer-like feel is as close by as Harford, Connecticut, and summer-like temperatures in New York City and New Jersey on Saturday can drop significantly by Sunday after the passage of a “back door” cool front from northeast-to-southwest. The key factor in the potential dramatic impact of the passage of a “back door” cool front this time of year is that the western Atlantic Ocean is still quite cold so a switch of low-level flow of air from a warmer continental direction to an ocean flow can result in substantial temperature swings.
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The “boys of summer” are back in town...big-league baseball gets underway on Thursday with home openers in New York City (Yankees vs. Brewers) and Washington, D.C. (Nationals vs Phillies) where there should be loads of sunshine and dry, cool conditions. High pressure will be in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday resulting in the dry, cool conditions with highs likely in the lower 50’s across New York City and the upper 50’s in the D.C. metro. After a warm frontal passage on Friday night, a major-league warmup is coming on Saturday with 80 degrees on the table in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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An on-going stratospheric warming event that began in late February increases the chance for additional cold air outbreaks as we wind down the month of March from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, the typical lag time between a stratospheric warming event over the polar region and its impact on US temperature patterns suggests there may very well be cold air outbreaks to deal with in this part of the country at least until the middle of April. As it turns out, big-league baseball gets underway in earnest in one week’s time on Thursday, March 27th, and the early part of the season may feature plenty of cold weather games thanks in large part to the on-going big-league stratospheric warming event. In addition, the influx of colder-than-normal air masses in coming weeks keeps hope alive across the northern states for those wishing for more snow...yes, even though spring season is now officially underway.
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Numerous ingredients are coming together for what is likely to be a multi-day severe weather event from the central US to the east coast during the period from later Friday to Sunday night. These ingredients include not just one, but two strong upper-level lows, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, an influx of warm, humid air on the storm’s front side, and a surface low pressure system that will deepen to rarely ever seen barometric pressure levels as it moves from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. All severe weather parameters are on the table during this multi-day event including swaths of intense and damaging winds, strong tornadoes, hail, and torrential rainfall that can result in flash flooding.
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The combination of an intense upper-level low, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, strong southerly low-level flow of warm, moist air, and a deepening surface low pressure system will likely lead to a severe weather outbreak from later Friday into Friday night. Indeed, this threat of severe weather may continue right through the upcoming weekend as it shifts slowly to the east reaching the Atlantic seaboard by the latter part of the weekend. The deepening surface low pressure system may reach central pressures not often seen in this part of the nation which will result in a very strong pressure gradient potentially leading to widespread damaging winds. In addition, this unfolding atmospheric setup can lead to some strong tornado activity from later Friday into Saturday across portions of the central and eastern US.
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The month of March is now underway and it certainly can feature multiple severe weather outbreaks as the air becomes increasingly warm and humid across the southern states at the same time colder-than-normal air masses continue to push south and east from Canada into the US. The ingredients are falling into place for severe weather during each of the next three days as indeed colder-than-normal air from the western states will push eastward into a warmer-than-normal air mass that today will be centered over the central states. The main threat zone for severe weather today is likely to extend from Texas-to-Oklahoma-to-Kansas and then an enhanced risk is likely on Tuesday centered over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley region. Spring-like storm conditions will reach the eastern states on Wednesday with windy, warmer weather, soaking rainfall, and the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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Today’s weather features above-normal temperatures across much of the nation and the next couple of days will remain on the mild side in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures approaching 60 degrees in some areas. We are about to flip the calendar from February to March and it appears quite likely that there will be occasional cold air intrusions from Canada into the US during the next few weeks. Supporting evidence for additional cold air outbreaks during the month of March include the strong likelihood of a “disrupted” stratospheric polar vortex with significant warming near the North Pole by the middle of March and the movement of a tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). These occasional cold air outbreaks will contribute to an overall active weather pattern in the month of March and likely set the stage multiple severe weather outbreaks. In addition, the continuing cold air intrusions will certainly keep hope alive for snow lovers with multiple upcoming chances; especially, across interior higher elevation locations of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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