While the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains active, an Arctic blast continues to bring record-breaking cold to portions of the western and central US as well as some unusual early season accumulating snow and ice. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm “Zeta” is now entering the Gulf of Mexico after a brief encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and it is quite likely to return to hurricane status (category 1) later today and then make a landfall later tomorrow in southeastern Louisiana. The remnants of “Zeta” will combine with a strong upper-level low now over the Southwest US to generate a significant rain event in the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from Thursday into early Friday. On Friday, enough cold air will get wrapped into the powerful system to cause a changeover to snow to result in the first accumulating snows of the season for portions of the Northeast US. All of this will be followed by a cold Halloween on Saturday with temperatures some fifteen degrees below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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While the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains active, an Arctic blast has brought record-breaking cold to portions of the western and central US as well as some unusual early season accumulating snow. In fact, the accumulating snow will take place all the way down to New Mexico and Texas over the next 48 hours or so with some spots likely receiving a foot or more. Meanwhile, the remains of Tropical Storm “Zeta” are likely to produce significant rainfall across the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from Thursday into Friday after making a mid-week landfall in the central Gulf coastal region. By later Friday, some of the cold air from this Arctic Blast will makes its way into the Northeast US and it could result in a changeover to snow in interior, higher elevation locations as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm “Zeta” passes through the region.
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Hurricane “Delta” is currently a category 3 “major” hurricane on its way for a landfall in southwestern Louisiana early this evening. There is a chance for some weakening of Hurricane “Delta” in the last few hours before landfall – perhaps from a category 3 to a category 2 storm – as it will push over cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, Hurricane “Delta” will weaken quickly; however, its remnants will bring some significant rainfall to the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and as far north and east as the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday into Monday.
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Hurricane “Delta” pounded the northeastern part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula yesterday morning and its encounter with the land mass weakened the tropical cyclone from a category 4 “major” storm to a category 1. Since then, Hurricane “Delta” has moved out over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico into an area with more favorable atmospheric conditions and has re-intensified into category 2 status with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. In this favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and deep moisture, Hurricane “Delta” could return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) as it churns towards a likely landfall late Friday in the southwestern part of Louisiana. After landfall, Hurricane “Delta” will weaken quickly, but its remnants will bring some significant rainfall to the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and as far north and east as the Mid-Atlantic region by the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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Hurricane “Delta” pounded the northeastern part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this morning as a category 2 storm and is now entering the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. After its bump into with the Yucatan Peninsula, Hurricane “Delta” will encounter favorable conditions for intensification as it churns northwest over the still warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico in an environment with low wind shear and high moisture content. As such, Hurricane “Delta” is likely to re-intensify into “major” hurricane status as it heads on a path towards the north-central Gulf coast - and perhaps right to the same region that experienced the landfall of Hurricane Laura earlier this tropical season. After landfall likely on Friday, the remains of Hurricane “Delta” are then likely to push to the north and east bringing significant rainfall to the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and perhaps to the Mid-Atlantic region late in the upcoming weekend.
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All systems are go for Hurricane “Delta” as it has undergone rapid intensification in the last 24 hours and will very likely reach at least category 4 “major” hurricane status over the next 12-24 hours. During the past 24 hours, Hurricane “Delta” has seen its maximum sustained winds increase by 70 mph – now at 110 mph – which represents the fastest October intensification of a tropical cyclone since “Wilma” of 2005. Hurricane “Delta” is headed towards the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in coming days – very likely as a category 4+ storm. After that, “Delta” may make a direct impact on the north-central Gulf coastal region (e.g., southern Louisiana) by late Friday or so and then take a turn to the north and east once inland with significant rainfall in the Deep South and Tennessee Valley – perhaps even bringing some late weekend rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred has formed in the eastern Atlantic and that has now exhausted the list of hurricane names for the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. As a result, the Greek alphabet will be used from here on out with the next named system to become “Alpha” and this may be the tropical wave that has been meandering over the western Gulf of Mexico in recent days. The last time the Greek alphabet had to be used for the naming of tropical storms was the very active year of 2005. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy has intensified into a category 4 “major” storm over the central Atlantic and it will likely effect Bermuda late in the weekend and then it may have a direct impact on Nova Scotia, Canada as an unfolding blocking pattern in the atmosphere changes its course.
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While the remnants of Hurricane Sally produce heavy rainfall today from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic, attention is shifting to two other tropical systems of concern. One tropical system has been meandering over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in recent days and it looks like it will continue to do so for the next few days. As a result, it is very likely to soon intensify into named tropical storm status (would be called “Wilfred”) and it could ultimately have an impact pretty much anywhere on the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, Teddy has become a major hurricane over the central Atlantic and it is likely headed to near the island of Bermuda over the next few days. After that, the storm track forecast gets more complicated for Hurricane Teddy as it will encounter a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere with strong high pressure ridging over southeastern Canada and an upper-level trough over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It is unclear as to whether this interaction will cause a turn to the northwest and perhaps towards northern New England/Southeastern Canada or if Hurricane Teddy will goes harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.
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