Last week, it was the northern lights and now - for another astronomical treat - a comet should be visible to the naked eye during the next week to ten days or so in the western sky after sunset. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS has now exited the sun’s glare having come closest to the sun in late September. It made its closest approach to Earth this past Saturday, October 11th, passing about 44 million miles away. It is now rising a little bit higher each night in the western sky and remaining visible for a little bit longer period; however, it is also going to lose some its brightness with each passing day.
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Hurricane Milton is a high-end category 4 storm system as of mid-morning as it closes in on the west-central Gulf coast of Florida. Some weakening is quite likely today as Hurricane Milton encounters increased vertical wind shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and some dry air intrusion on its western side. However, Hurricane Milton should make landfall later tonight somewhere near Tampa Bay as a “major” hurricane with a significant storm surge expected as high as 10-15 feet in some areas. After landfall, Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later tomorrow out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
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Hurricane Milton intensified rapidly on Monday reaching category 5 status with maximum sustained winds as high as 180 mph and a central pressure that dropped all the way down to 897 millibars (26.44 inches). There has been some weakening in the overnight hours and during the early hours of Tuesday with the latest measurements featuring maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (category 4) and the central pressure of Milton has risen more than 30 millibars since the low point on Monday of 929 millibars (27.43 inches). Hurricane Milton will gradually take a turn to the northeast during the next 12-24 hours and likely make a landfall on Wednesday night somewhere near the Tampa Bay region of Florida’s Gulf coast. After landfall, Hurricane Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later Thursday out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
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Hurricane Milton has intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is now classified as a strong category 4 “major” hurricane...just on the doorstep of a category 5 designation. Given the very favorable environmental conditions, Hurricane Milton is likely to reach category 5 status later today as it heads slowly to the east-southeast. Hurricane Milton is expected to turn to the northeast later tomorrow which would bring the system to Florida’s Gulf coast region by later Wednesday...likely right near or just to the north of Tampa Bay. There can be some weakening of Hurricane Milton in the hours before landfall due to some “late in the game” dry air intrusion; however, landfall as a “major” would still be quite possible during the PM hours on Wednesday. With a possible landfall near or just to the north of Tampa Bay, storm surge in the bay region would be significant...perhaps as high 8-12 feet. After landfall, Hurricane Milton is likely to cross over the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane, and then exit off the east coast on Thursday to the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic.
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Another “major” hurricane may be headed towards Florida’s Gulf coast with a possible mid-week landfall right near the Tampa Bay region. “Milton” became a named tropical storm on Saturday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to attain hurricane status by later Sunday as it begins a move to the east. Given the generally favorable environmental conditions, Milton could then become a “major” hurricane as early as Monday as it continues on a trek towards Florida’s west coast.
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Hurricane Helene made landfall on Thursday night as a category 4 “major” hurricane near Florida’s Gulf coast town of Perry and then pushed north through Georgia before grinding to a halt over the Tennessee Valley. Tremendous rainfall fell over the southern Appalachians as the result of strong and persistent upsloping winds associated with Hurricane Helene with as much as two feet in some spots and flooding was extreme. The month of September comes to an end with plenty of tropical activity to monitor in the Atlantic Basin and another system is destined for the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend or early part of next week. The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin has now resulted in 11 named tropical storms with four hurricanes having made landfall in the US, and there certainly may be other opportunities to add onto those numbers.
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Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a strong category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher and category 4 designation is still on the table. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region as a “major” with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and severe flash flooding.
By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
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Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region – likely as a “major” – with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and serious flash flooding.
By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
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Tropical Storm Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is on the verge of attaining “category 1” hurricane status with sustained winds of 74-95 mph. All indications are that Helene will undergo rapid intensification during the next 24 hours or so given the combination of favorable environmental conditions such as low vertical wind shear and ample moisture, and its movement over very warm water with high oceanic heat content. This expected intensification of Helene will likely result in attainment of “major” hurricane classification on Thursday as a category 3 storm system with sustained winds of 111 mph – 129 mph. Helene should begin to accelerate tomorrow in a north-to-northeast direction likely resulting in a landfall early tomorrow night along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region. As is typical of northward moving tropical storms, the storm surge should be most impactful to the right of the landfall location potentially affecting coastal sections down to areas just north of Tampa Bay. In addition, there will be the threat of tornadoes to the right of the storm’s track including portions of northern and eastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will move along at a pretty good clip in a general northward direction through the state of Georgia where there is likely to be significant impact including hurricane-force wind gusts and excessive rainfall amounts. In fact, excessive rainfall may extend to throughout much of the southern Appalachians where strong upsloping winds will enhance upward motion and increase overall amounts. By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.
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A strong tropical wave continues to churn over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a “major” hurricane by late Thursday. This system should attain named tropical storm status shortly (minimum winds of 39 mph) and then it should take a track in between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the western tip of Cuba as it heads to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Intensification will then continue as it heads on a general northward track over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and it could climb to “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a likely landfall late Thursday somewhere near Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coast region.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will push in a general northward direction through Georgia and South Carolina producing powerful wind gusts and significant rainfall along the way. At this point, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure dropping southeastward into the south-central states. In fact, the tropical low may “rotate around” this incoming upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately gets absorbed by the upper-level low..
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